NOVEMBER 29, 2015 – DEL MAR
JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS
& WAGERING STRATEGIES
Follow us on twitter
@jsiegelracing
USER GUIDELINES
Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering
strategies geared to rolling exotic players. The basic
strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily
doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to
augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be
achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s
analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a
moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering
strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling
exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better
indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics
pools than a horse’s actual closing odds. Jeff’s top selection
always appears in bold-faced type.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should
be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more
than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling
exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race”
strategy.
A=Highest degree of confidence. B=Solid
Play. C=Least preferred, or pass
Top selection indicated in bold-face
FIRST
RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C+
Use: 4-Diablo
Caballero; 6-Cool Green
#4 Diablo Caballero and #6
Cool Green meet again and look much the best of the others in this maiden
special weight state-bred sprint.
‘Caballero finished first in a similar event in mid-October but was dq’d
for shutting off ‘Green in mid-stretch.
Had ‘Green gotten a clean run, he might have won. These two are difficult to separate – either
one can win today – so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise
not getting too involved.
SECOND
RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 2-Vanlose Stairway; 4-With a Twist; 8-Intoxicating Move
#8 Intoxicating Move returns to her winning level and returns to her
favorite turf course; we’re hoping that she can return to her best form as
well. The Carava-trained mare retains
Nakatani and will be tough if she runs back to her highly-rated (and visually
very impressive) victory over this course and distance during the summer
meeting. She was overmatched two races
back in the Swingtime Stakes and was ineffective sprinting down the hill in her
last start. #4 With a Twist looked good beating a lesser field over this course
earlier this month and was re-claimed by Hess, always a positive sign. She’s back with Desormeaux, who has won with
her in the past, and the veteran mare, a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar
lawn, has a right to be dangerous once again despite the class hike. #2
Vanlose Stairway comes off a clever win against a lesser field over this
course and earned a speed figure that puts her in the hunt right back. Gonzalez stays aboard for Spawr. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics
while slightly preferring Intoxicating Move on top.
THIRD
RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 1-Purrin’ Proud; 7-Wise Tale
#7 Wise Tale drops from straight maiden to maiden claiming and will stick much
better against this group. Valdez should
have him on or near the lead throughout.
#1 Purrin’ Proud has a series
of solid sprints under his belt, draws the rail, and stretches out for the
first time. He has the pedigree to stay
a mile and his speed figures are rising rapidly. The winner should be one of these two and
both are worth using in rolling exotic play.
FOURTH
RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B
Single: 1-Bird
E House
This mini-marathon turf
affair looks completely chaotic and nothing would surprise us. We’re intrigued by #1 Bird E House and if you’re a small ticket player you should
consider embracing this live 8-1 long shot (however, if you can afford to go
deeper by all means do so). Bird E House
makes a highly favorable jockey change to Desormeaux after finishing a willing fourth
in a fairly contentious starter’s allowance event over this course and distance
earlier this month. He looks like the
most dangerous of the deep closing types and may have some improvement in
him. He’s won 25% percent of his career
starts, shows a win over this course, and from the rail should get an ideal
ground-saving trip.
FIFTH
RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+
Single: 1-Perfect
Set
#1 Perfect Set was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar when second behind #4 Ike
Walker in a starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita last month. The effort was well below his previous
excellent Del Mar form, so we’re thinking that he just didn’t care for the
track. He’s back at Del Mar today and
we’re going to assume that he’s ready to resume his winning ways following a
string of very impressive recent workouts for Hollendorfer. Garcia stays aboard, knows him well, and
should have this Pleasantly Perfect gelding within striking range throughout at
this 10-furlong trip. At 5/2 on the
morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
SIXTH
RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 2-Collected;
6-Ninety One Assault; 10-Dressed in Hermes
This is a strong race for
juvenile turf milers and the three listed above all are highly promising
sorts. A win by any one of the three
would not be surprising, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics. #2
Collected showed a ton of quality in graduating at first asking down the
hill at Santa Anita; his moderate speed figure really doesn’t do him justice
and we’re expecting him to move forward considerably on the stretch-out. The son of City Zip has a ton of gas, but
with #1 Manhattan Dan also in the
field (and likely to gun to the lead from the rail), we’re anticipating that
Garcia will employ stalking tactics on the Baffert-trained colt. Based on pedigree the mile should be within
his range and at 8-1 on the morning line there’s considerable value
available. #6 Ninety One Assault
ran huge in his debut, missing by a nose after rallying wide and finishing
eagerly to just miss. He should benefit
greatly from the outing, and the anticipated hot pace plays into his deep closing
style. He’s another 8-1 shot that has to
be seriously considered. #10 Dressed in Hermes didn’t run badly
when fifth of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland and before
that captured the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita. His numbers are rising and Smith will have
him doing his best work late.
SEVENTH
RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+
Use: 1-Triple Crown; 4-Hard Gale
#4 Hard Gale is a highly-regarded first timer by Hard Spun with a series of
very sharp works at San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato. The barn is quite strong with debut runners
and ‘Gale appears cranked up and ready to go.
We’ll put him on top but also use #1
Triple Crown, a fast-working Miller-trained juvenile, also from San Luis
Rey Downs. The rail is a concern but the
stable is clever with first-timers and ‘Crown should be fit and ready.
EIGHTH
RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 1-Hard
Not to Like; 3-Recepta; 8-Stellar Path; 9-Filimbi
The Matriarch is loaded
with possibilities and a spread in rolling exotic play is required. #1
Hard Not to Like failed to produce her best form when unplaced in the Rodeo
Drive Stakes at Santa Anita but she’s clearly capable of winning a race like
this with her top effort and the fact that Clement sends her west again
indicates she’s back on the beam. Johnny
V. flies out to ride her and from the rail should be able to save valuable
ground every step of the way. At 9/2 on
the morning line she’s as good as any. #3 Recepta was out of her element in
the B.C. Mile but is properly spotted against this level of competition and the
daughter of Speightstown has a strong look off either of her victories in the
Del La Rose and Noble Damsel. She’s
reunited with Trujillo and should settle somewhere in mid-pack, ready to
pounce. #8 Stellar Path comes here fresh from a nice score in the Athenia
S. at Belmont Park with a career top figure and gives Clement a second strong
bullet to fire. At 8-1 on the morning
line she’s worth using somewhere. #9 Filimbi probably will beat this
field if she runs back to her close second to Tepin in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at
Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day. She
returned in an allowance race earlier this month in New York with a nice win
and probably wasn’t cranked to the max, so we’re expecting to see her very best
today.
NINTH
RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B+
Use: 6-Rim Nick; 8-Trump Diesel; 11-Miner’s Light
#8 Trump Diesel turned in an eye-opening 21 seconds flat breeze
at the OBS April sale and then was purchased for $260,000. A rangy, athletic colt from the first crop of
Sidney’s Candy, he’s done some excellent work leading up to this debut for
Miller at San Luis Rey Downs and seems plenty fit for a winning effort first
crack out of the box under Pedroza. At
8-1 on the morning line he appears to be offering loads of value in a very deep
and contentious affair. #6 Rim Nick is a hot first timer from
the O’Neill barn that looks ready for a major performance in this loaded maiden
juvenile extended sprint. From the first
crop of the good sprinter J. P.’s Gusto, he brought $230,000 at the Barretts
May Sale after breezing a quarter mile in 21 1/5 seconds. #11
Miner’s Light is clearly the one to
beat after missing in a photo to subsequent graded stakes winner Exaggerator in
his only outing during the summer Del Mar meeting in July. He returns for Gaines with a healthy series
of drills, retains Smith, and lands a comfortable outside post. He’ll enjoy today’s extra furlong and figures
to be charging late.