WE’VE MOVED!!!

Followers of this blog should bookmark Jeff’s new website – jeffsiegelracing.com – where the contents that previously had appeared in this space (plus a whole lot more) will now be available.  Jeff’s full-card Santa Anita analysis and wagering strategies, his two daily “Day Makers,” his live “in game” commentary, “Black Books” for both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park, and Top-40 Triple Crown Rankings all appear on the new website.  And, as always, everything is FREE!

“DAY MAKERS” FOR SATURDAY, DEC. 26, 2015

GULFSTREAM PARK – 8^th race - #2 WHEELS UP NOW (7/2)

Wheels Up Now is an improving son of Smart Strike and looks ready to graduate in this maiden special weight affair for juveniles over a one-turn mile.  Most recently the Albertrani-trained colt finished second in a powerful, highly-productive extended sprint at Aqueduct; the winner, Vorticity, came back to take the Marylander Stakes at Laurel, the third place finisher, Condo King, returned in his next start to break his maiden with a strong figure, and the fourth place finisher, Stradivari, graduated by more than 11 lengths in his next appearance here opening day over a route of ground.  Wheels Up Now adds blinkers, catches a field without much early speed among the known element, and should on or near the lead throughout.  There’s plenty of value here at the morning line odds of 7/2 if you can get it.

GULFSTREAM PARK – 10^th race - #2 STORMY ROCIT (3-1)

Stormy Rocit, in his 18^th career outing, finally makes his first start around two turns and the speedy gelding should have every chance to dominate on the front end from his comfortable inside post.  He’s a first-off-the-claim for Maker (21%) in his first start late August, and the recent work tab has been nothing short of sensational.  With the presence of Castellano in the saddle and in a field that doesn’t have all that much early zip in it, the son of Stormy Atlantic should have every opportunity to regain his winning form in this seven and one-half furlong optional claimer.

JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

(December 16-20, 2015)

Sunday, December 20 – In eight prior starts Canadian shipper Still Krz had never been entered for a tag and had never raced on anything other than the poly track at Woodbine so when the 3-year-old gelding showed up in a restricted (nw-3) $30,000 seller in the seventh race he was intriguing at 12-1 on the morning line.  The son of Old Forester got some action and left at 8-1, took the 4/5 favorite Galardonado by the throat soon after the start, and then ran that one into ground before drawing off nicely to register a two and one-half length victory.  In doing so he earned 89 Beyer speed figure, a career top by 10 points.  Clearly, he likes conventional dirt and has a relaxed pressing style, so trainer Michael DePaulo has the option to stretch him out a bit.

Next Race: Still Krz won a restricted (Canadian-bred) allowance race at Woodbine in October so he still has the first condition available on this circuit.  There’s a non-winners of two/optional $25,000 at five furlongs on turf written as a sub race on Jan. 16 that might be considered.  There’s actually a race at seven furlongs that’s almost identical to the one he won today listed as sub in the book on Jan. 17.  There’s also a straight $35,000 claimer at seven and one-half furlongs on turf written as a sub Jan. 13 that might be intriguing. 

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK-DP98vYUw

Saturday, December 19 – Rather than try to describe the performance by first-time starter Conquest Sandman in the sixth race we suggest you click the link below and watch it for yourself.  Suffice to say that this two-year-old has a very nice future for trainer Mark Casse.  Green as the grass he raced over and losing many lengths in ground after being forced extremely wide throughout, the son of Scat Daddy managed to keep on relentlessly in the final furlong and wound up second, beaten a neck, to stablemate Southside Warrior in this nine furlong affair that offered a fairly representative field for the level.  An $80,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, Conquest Sandman is out of a half-sister to champion Canadian turf mare Sweetest Thing, so we suspect he’ll be kept on turf for now.  If (and when) he learns to relax and settle early, this colt could be the goods.

Next Race: There’s a logical turf race Jan. 2 that seems back a bit quick, and the maiden long the following week is on dirt, so Casse might just wait until the following book and point for something in the latter part of the month.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOLmM1Qzpg0

Friday, December 18 – Based purely on pedigree Flatlined shouldn’t be that much better, if at all, on turf than he is on dirt.  His “tons the best” victory in the fifth race continued his improving pattern, and since his last two starts came on the lawn it’s unclear whether he’s developed into a grass specialist, getting better with experience, or flourishing since joining the Charles Dickey barn two races back.  In this maiden special weight middle distance event, the 3-year-old left from the next-to-the-outside post in the field of 12 and never even came close to seeing the rail, nor could he could locate any “cover” throughout the running.  Basically, this is the absolute worst type of trip you can encounter in a two-turn grass race, yet this gelding, after being ninth early on, hit the front entering the lane and then bravely fought off runner-up Old Sport to graduate in his fifth career start.  It’s the kind of performance that looks so much better visually than it will on paper that Flatlined should be a square price when he tackles non-winners of two after the first of the year.

Next race: There’s a race in the condition book on January 9 that suits him perfectly – a first-level allowance race at a mile and one-sixteenth on grass – and if Dickey opts to bring him back in three weeks this is likely where you’ll see him next.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veqAk_Uz5Pc

Thursday, December 17 – Shameless Lass showed a bit of promise when finishing second vs. straight maiden company in her only prior start last summer at Woodbine, so it was surprising – if not a tad suspicious – that she returned in a bottom-rung maiden claiming $12,500 event in today’s third race.  Two listed workouts – one of them a bullet at three furlongs – had her fit and ready and the result was a 10 length romp without the need of the stick at 30 cents on the dollar.  However, as visually pleasing as the victory was, her modest 51 Beyer number indicates that owner/trainer William Tharrenes shouldn’t get too ambitious in searching for the proper spot for her first try vs. winners. 

Next Race: There’s a straight $20,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies on Jan. 7 in the next book that seems logical but that race might be back a little quick.  Other options include a pair of opportunities at Tampa Bay Downs: a starter’s allowance $25,000 race on Jan. 10 or a straight $16,000 claimer Jan. 15.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uns4oALtqbw

Wednesday, December 16 – Based on his 3-year-old form, Tapitation was never going to justify his $330,000 yearling purchase price, but in 2015 for new trainer Ralph Nicks, the son of Tapit has improved dramatically.  It may not have been just the barn switch; in winning today’s ninth race the New York-bred now is undefeated in three starts since being gelded.  It wasn’t easy.  Pinched back to lose valuable position after the start, Tapitation settled early toward the rear of pack, advanced willingly inside midway to move within range, accelerated impressively despite rallying into the teeth of a crawling pace, and then managed to fight off the promising Belmont debut winner Arghad to capture this stronger-than-par open first-level allowance event.  Furthermore, Tapitation was never going to let his challenger go by, as illustrated by his powerful gallop out.  Assuming it was accurate, the time of 1:46.32 was slow, however, it was a product of a walking pace that prevented a “normal” final clocking, rendering any time-based speed figure meaningless. 

Next Race:  Tapitation likely will re-appear on the one-level raise in January.  All three of his wins this year have come on turf, so we’d expect to see him kept on the lawn (though his dirt track form early in his career was pretty decent, too).  Arghad verified the promise he displayed in his maiden win in June at Belmont Park and was making his first start since; the Kieran McLaughlin-trained son of Distorted Humor will be a short price when he returns under similar conditions after the first of the year.

Watch the race:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2vCB1WVsSw

JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

(December 9-13, 2015)

Sunday December 13 – It certainly wasn’t the strongest two-year-old filly maiden special weight race you’ll see during this meeting, but today’s seventh race probably had handicappers who backed CONQUEST DYNASTY pulling their hair out when the daughter of Court Vision missed by a diminishing nose after encountering several lengths of trouble along the way.  This was her fifth career start but her first on turf, and the Mark Casse-trained Canadian-bred filly looks to have found her preferred surface.  She was forced to take up early and then had to alter course sharply when running into a roadblock in mid-stretch; with any kind of clear trip she certainly would have won by daylight. 

Next Start:  Conquest Dynasty doesn’t have a noteworthy turn of foot – she’s more of a grinder – so we’d expect she’ll benefit from any added distance.  She’ll likely return in a similar maiden turf race after the first of the year; however, even with a clean trip she’ll probably have to improve a bit to beat what figures to be a stronger field than what she faced today.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuYfwLNo724

Saturday, December 12 – CALI STAR had left her previous form behind in her first start since changing trainers to Marty Wolfson when she earned a career top speed figure in a five length two-turn mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park West last month.  Two exceptionally sharp half mile breezes since that race, including a (fastest-of-79) 47 2/5 seconds drill just five days ago indicated she was continuing to progress, so it was not surprising that the daughter of Street Cry produced another forward move in defeating her Wolfson-trained stablemate (and favored) BEST BEHAVIOR in today’s third race, the one-turn mile Rampart S.-G3.  It’s hard to believe that she had won just two of her first 16 starts (when trained by Alice Cohn) prior to the trainer switch.  ‘Behavior ran her race but was no match late while STIFFED finished with interest to be a distant third while never a factor.

Next race: There’s nothing at Gulfstream Park on dirt for Cali Star until the $200,000 Royal Delta S.-G2 at a mile and one-sixteenth Feb. 13 so that could be her next start.  If so, the group she’ll face in that race should be considerably tougher than this field and the 89 Beyer speed figure earned in this race will have to be improved on.  Perhaps her connections will take her on the road to find an easier spot.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_SzzAPYBB0

The seventh race, a maiden special weight affair for juveniles over seven and one-half furlongs, offered two expensive Pletcher first-timers, KISMET’S HEELS and GIMLET, and it wasn’t difficult to believe that the winner would be one or the other.  However, URBAN BOURBON, with four prior runs, (all sprinting) and second in his last pair, managed to capitalize on a perfect ground-saving, stalking trip to earn his diploma, doing so after the red sea open for him along the fence entering the lane.  The Eddie Kenneally-trained son of City Zip, after building a four length lead at the furlong pole, survived over the Pletcher duo in a race that certainly flatters him.  Kismet’s Heels, a $900,000 two-year-old in training purchased by Tapit, walked out of the gate, settled nicely, commenced his rally very wide on the turn and kept on strongly before running out of ground.  He’s the one you want to own out of this race.  Gimlet was widest of all – and we’re talking eight or nine wide – entering the lane while producing a decent bid before running out of steam close home. 

Next Race: Urban Bourbon probably is a bet-against when he returns vs. non-winners of two next month.  He’ll never get a better trip.  Kismet’s Heels and Gimlet – assuming they both came out of the race in good order – could very well meet again in a two-turn turf maiden event in January.  Both have plenty of improvement in them, with ‘Heels the one that should really benefit greatly from added distance.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZY67rIwNME

Wednesday, December 9 – The featured ninth race appeared to be an unusually competitive affair for a first-level allowance/optional $25,000 claimer, and with a field of 13 competing over seven and one-half furlongs the race seemed likely to be decided by trip.  That THE IMPOSTER managed to get there first despite leaving from the extreme outside post and then having little go right for him throughout a rugged journey makes his performance especially impressive.  And it’s not a coincidence that in three starts since being claimed for $35,000 by Joe Sharp in early September the son of Wilko has improved markedly.  In his first outing for Sharp in October at Belmont Park, The Imposter was beaten a neck in a solid effort while being dropped to nw-3 $25,000 claimer.  In his next start a month later at Aqueduct the grey gelding won a $50,000 nw-3 seller in brave fashion by a neck.  Now, no longer eligible to restricted claimers, The Imposter returned to the $25,000 level but in this optional claimer was clearly facing a deeper, stronger field than he had just beaten.  His victory, accomplished with a career top speed figure, gives indication that he can win again for Sharp, even if raised a notch or two.

Also worth noting is the fifth place effort by the old pro CONCERT STAGE, who was finishing fastest of all to wind up fifth, beaten two lengths after failing to secure room when launching a bid along the rail in the upper stretch.  There’s no doubt that had he gotten through, the winner of 12 career races would have been right there.

Next Start – Since joining the Sharp barn The Imposter has raced once a month, so we’ll expect to see the gelding back in the entries sometime in mid-January, perhaps vs. $35,000 open claimers.  Concert Stage has shown the ability run very well off short rest, so it would not be surprising if he returns before the end of the month, though it would have to be in an extra since no suitable race appears in the condition book.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLelPhgxeiI

JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

DECEMBER 5-6, 2015

Sunday, December 6 - The Todd Pletcher barn certainly has hit the ground running.  In the sixth race, debuting juvenile filly DARING BRIDE wound up facing only four rivals in what was originally slated to be a 1 1/16 miles maiden event on turf; with so many scratches and nothing left to take money the daughter of Scat Daddy predictably left at a very short price, 40 cents on the dollar.  She did plenty wrong, but still won without a challenge, and while the final time was unimpressive and the Beyer speed figure (55) shockingly low, there was evidence of good potential.  Breaking slowly and racing somewhat awkwardly entering the first turn, she became rank while taking dirt behind crawling fractions until the field entered the backstretch, at which time she was angled out to be widest of all while quickly moving up to prompt the pace.  The others steadily dropped away and by the time the field hit the mid-point on the turn it was evident that Daring Bride would win as she pleased.  The official margin was just shy of seven lengths but it would have been double digits had she not shied from something inside the sixteenth pole causing her to shift in badly – nearly striking the rail – before being corrected sharply by Johnny V. and in the process losing her best action.  One would assume that she’ll learn a ton from the experience.  This filly is a credit to her sire, as there are no graded stakes winners (and just three listed stakes winners) under her first three dams.  Scat Daddy, in fact, has proven to be one of North America’s most versatile stallions; he gets good colts as well as fillies and his offspring can run short, long, dirt or turf.  

Next Start:  Since Pletcher originally entered her for turf, it would not be surprising if Daring Bride shows up next in a non-winners of two grass router early in 2016.  We would expect a much more professional performance from a filly whose modest speed figure hardly is a true indicator of her natural ability.

Watch race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3VQc_TsOuo

Saturday, December 5 - Common sense tells us not to place too much stock in any off-the-turf, wet track maiden performance no matter how visually impressive it might have been.  But the victory by STRADIVARI in the meet’s first race will make his next start – hopefully under dry conditions – a “must see”.  Given a race when a non-threatening fourth in his debut sprinting at Aqueduct last month, the son of Medaglia d’Oro was entered “main track only” and drew in when the race came off the lawn.  Part of the pace 1-off the rail to the head of the lane, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt found another gear when turned loose and quickly lengthened at will to win by more than 11 lengths with a final sixteenth in six seconds flat.  The Beyer speed figure of 78 was okay, nothing special, but we doubt it does him justice. The fifth foal from the 14-year old high class multiple stakes winning sprinter Bending Strings, Stradivari becomes his dam’s first winner from four previous starters and by himself may very well make up for all of the mare’s previous disappointments.  

Next Start:  This stable prefers to give its young horses at least a few weeks in between races and since there’s no suitable first-level allowance two-turn race listed in the GPX condition book the remainder of this month, Stradivari likely won’t be seen again until after the first of the year.

Watch race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3MM8mQyGP0

Thirty minutes later in the second race Pletcher unveiled another excellent prospect, a Bernardini colt named ZULU, who bravely fought off another well-meant first-timer, SHARP AZTECA (Freud) to register a two length score in a sharp 1:10.06 over a wet track that was listed “good.”  The assigned Beyer number of 81 is solid for the level.  A half-brother to two listed stakes winners but from a dam that was 17-years-old when she foaled him, Zula breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at Gulfstream Park last March in the Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old in training sale and then brought $900,000 at auction.  Pletcher’s percentage with first-timers is a superb 22% from nearly 300 runners according to the stats from DRF so it wasn’t surprising that Zula justified his 3/5 backing.  First impressions indicate he could be a quality colt; however he possesses the type of quick action that makes him suspect at this stage of his career at distances farther than one mile.  This was legitimate maiden sprint that should prove productive; you should keep close tabs on horses exiting this race.  

Next Start:  As in the case of Stradivari, Zulu likely won’t reappear until after the first of the year, and logically will return in a non-winners of two sprint. 

Watch race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgYCeS-wHdI

SOMETHING NEW – AND BETTER - FOR 2016!

As we await the launching of xbtv.com soon after the first of the year, we will expand our blog into a functional website that will contain many new elements designed for the daily horse player.  Some of the new features will include:

·       *   Day Makers from Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Golden Gate Fields, and Aqueduct.

·         * Black Books for Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park highlighting key races and horses to follow, updated weekly.

·         * Triple Crown Tracker, with regularly-updated rankings of the top 40 prospects in the class of 2016.

·         * Cooling Out,  our weekly 30-minute podcast with Aaron Vercruysse and Millie Ball that features a round table discussion of thoroughbred racing’s hot topics.

·         * Full Card Santa Anita seminars via Periscope on selected days.

·         * Extensive “in-game” commentary via twitter covering the racing from Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

The expanded website will debut later this month in time for the Dec. 26 opening of Santa Anita.  The content contained eventually will be housed at xbtv.com (currently in construction).  In the meantime, be sure to follow us on twitter - @jsiegelracing - for news, selections, updates, and commentary!