AUGUST 30, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 1, 4

2nd race: 6, 7, 9

3rd race: 1

4th race: 1, 8

5th race: 2, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Big Rosie Brown; 4-Runningwiththelute

#4 Runningwiththelute returns to reality while remaining above her claim level and stretches out to a distance she’s shown she can handle.  She has only one way to go – on the front end – and if she make the lead without being sent hard from the gate she should be tough to catch.  #1 Big Rosie Brown, first off the claim for Eurton, retains Bejarano and figures to draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position.  If ‘Lute fails to see out the trip, ‘Brown could be in the right spot to pick her up.  These are the two we’ll prefer in rolling exotic play with the edge going to Runningwiththelute.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Ain’t No Other; 7-Eddie’s First; 9-Giant Ego

#6 Ain’t No Other joins a low percentage outfit via a claim but retains Bejarano and returns to turf, so the veteran gelding has a right to snap back to good form.  First or second in 21 of 44 starts, the son of Old Topper always gives his best and should be within striking range throughout.  #7 Eddie’s First, now in the Miller barn (strong 24% first-off-the-claim), ran well over this course and distance two runs back and should appreciate the return to grass.  He likes the Del Mar lawn and looks dangerous despite the quick eight day return.  #9 Giant Ego didn’t get the best of runs when beaten just over a length at 38-1 in a tougher spot last month; he’s back at his proper level today and drawn outside where he’ll have clear sailing and every chance.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while giving a slight edge on top to Ain’t No Other.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Stellar Wind

#1 Stellar Wind outclasses this field on pure form and likely will go lower than here morning line odds of 6/5.  Freshened since winning the Oaks in June at Santa Anita, the Sadler-trained filly should be able to settle in behind the leaders and then produce her run.  She’s a no value rolling exotic single.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Chasing the Heat; 8-Maximinus

#1 Chasing the Heat drops to the $10,000 level after finishing second in a strong $16,000 affair and then having a claim voided due to unsoundness.  A satisfactory workout since that race gets him off the vet’s list and at this level the former New Mexico-based sprinter could easily outclass this field, assuming he’s in good enough shape to reproduce his best race.  #8 Maximinus exits a hot race, lands a good outside post and sports a healthy work pattern at San Luis Rey Downs since his last outing.  Graham should have him in an ideal second flight, stalking position.  Clearly, this is a “who-is-feeling-good-today” type of race so proceed with caution and if you’d prefer to do deeper in your rolling exotic play, go right ahead.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Professor Berns; 4-Woody’s Folly

Del Mar doesn’t card too many maiden claiming races on turf, so many of these are trying grass for the first time or are completely unproven over the surface.  #2 Professor Berns shows up for a tag for the first time and his races in straight maiden company weren’t all that bad, so the Gallagher-trained gelding looks like the logical top pick.  He exits a strong race, lands a good inside post and retains Graham, so he should no excuses today.  #4 Woody’s Folly will be one of those making his first start on turf and with good tactical speed and an improving pattern this Spawr-trained gelding is worth using at 5-1 on the morning line.  These are the two we’ll prefer but this is a typical grass grab bag where anything can happen and anybody can win.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Hide My Heart; 6-Always a Chance; 7-Lucky Student

#1 Hide My Heart just crushed a much softer $16,000 nw-2 field and is raised to open $25,000 after earning a powerful speed figure, one that’s actually better than par for this level.  If she can duplicate that performance today from the rail, she can win right back.  #6 Always a Chance, first off the claim for O’Neill, missed at 7/5 against a slightly lesser group after winning impressively on opening day.  She’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and if she gets that type of ride from Gutierrez she could bounce back.  #7 Lucky Student drops a notch for Spawr, lands the cozy outside post and could very well be the controlling speed.  She remains well above her claim level in a sign of confidence and should have every chance to regain her winning form.  All three should be included in your rolling exotics with a bit of an edge going to Hide My Heart.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Fritz Johansen; 7-Hunt; 10-Chiropractor

This turf event appears to have a considerable amount of speed signed on and could set up nicely for the closers.  #7 Hunt is a European invader in the D’Amato barn with strong form in good handicap company in Ireland; he’s a first-time Lasix user and gets Smith, and with all that ship-and-win money available you know he’s very well-meant today.  #6 Fritz Johansen won a visually pleasing race from state-bred foes over this course and distance last month and with another forward move today could be dangerous right back.  He should be able to draft in right behind the leaders, ready to pounce, similar to the type of trip he received when winning.  #10 Chiropractor is a deep closer hoping for a hot pace; the lightly-raced Kitten’s Joy gelding has plenty of room to improve for Proctor should benefit from the race-shape.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Blue Anchor; 8-Strong Like Bull; 11-Sunbeamsfromheaven

#11 Sunbeamsfromheaven launches a comeback for Hollendorfer and if he returns as well as he left he should be able to beat this modest maiden claiming field.  Second, beaten a head, when last seen at Santa Anita in December, the son of Colonel John has been working well for his return at Los Alamitos and should be fit and ready under Bejarano from a comfortable outside draw.  Though his best race came over a mile, this extended sprint trip should actually fit him nicely.  #8 Strong Like Bull is a dangerous first timer from the Miler barn; the works at San Luis Rey Downs seem decent enough and the son of Benny the Bull looked extremely fast when breezing a furlong in 10 second flat way back in May of last year at the Barretts  Sale, after which he brought $50,000 at auction.  #6 Blue Anchor has looked pretty solid in the morning for his first start since March and could easily be a better type this time around for Glatt.  At 5-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use.”

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 8-Native Heart; 9-Long Hot Summer; 10-Gusto Dolce

In a race without much speed, #9 Long Hot Summer should have every chance to control this race from start to finish.  Unable to withstand the late charge of high-quality Prize Exhibit in the Senorita Stakes at Santa Anita in late June, the daughter of Street Boss returns to the conditioned allowance ranks today and will be tough if she’s not pressured early.  Talamo stays aboard for D’Amato.  #8 Native Heart, away for more than a year but training like she’s fit and ready for Gary Mandella, was a decent sort in England as a 3-year-old and if she can duplicate that form in this event she has a strong look.  #10 Gusto Dolce makes her first start on turf in North America after a pair of okay efforts on dirt at Santa Anita.  The switch in surface should be fine – she was a grass winner in France last year – and improvement is likely as she further acclimates. We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two using Long Hot Summer on top.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 8-Divine Tale; 11-Altaira; 2-Kiss My Face

#2 Kiss My Face adds blinkers and drops to the bottom; the Powell-trained filly also lands the good outside post and should be comfortably placed in a pace stalking position.  She has speed figures good enough to win at this level and a couple of nice workouts since her last race.  #11 Altaira returned off a long layoff and ran okay when third of six in a slightly stronger spot earlier this month; she has every right to build on that effort today with Perez staying aboard, and this extended sprint trip should suit her well.  #8 Divine Tale is a grindy sort with the proper style for seven furlongs and the Drysdale-trained mare, in the money in her last four, certainly is overdue for a maiden win.  We’ll prefer Kiss My Face on top while going three-deep in our rolling exotics.

AUGUST 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $27 investment

1st race: 1, 4, 5

2nd race: 5. 6, 7

3rd race: 6

4th race: 2, 6

5th race: 1, 3, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Sweet as a Rose; 4-Halljoy; 5-Kadesha

Not a whole lot separates this group of first-level allowance fillies and mares so we’ll go three-deep and otherwise not get involved.  #1 Sweet as a Rose lost her rider at the start in a similar affair last month so she gets another crack at this bunch and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip.  A repeat of her race before last, which produced a career top speed figure, likely will be good enough to win.  #4 Halljoy was a beaten choice at this level over 11 furlongs last month today drops back to a middle distance that she probably will be more comfortable at.  Bejarano stays aboard and should have her within striking range throughout.  #5 Kadesha is another who may not have cared for the trip in the same race Halljoy exits and a repeat of her nice starter’s allowance victory two runs back puts her in the thick of it.  We’ll give Sweet as a Rose a very slight edge on top.a

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Scatastic; 6-Cee the Preacher; 7-Tough It Out

This state-bred juvenile sprint looks fairly wide open and probably requires a spread; we’ll go three-deep while slightly preferring #6 Cee the Preacher on top.  The Machowsky-trained colt was unprepared for the start and lost all chance in his debut, eventually winding up sixth of seven, beaten just under 10 lengths (most of which he had given away at the break).  He’s come back to train quite well from the gate, so if he leaves cleanly today, the son of Lucky Pulpit seems certain to improve a ton.  #7 Tough It Out hails from a clever outfit and is bred for speed; he’s likely better than his modest work tab gives him credit for.  #5 Scatastic, in the money in his last pair, has numbers that are steadily rising and should at least get a piece of it again today.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Gimme Da Lute

#6 Gimme Da Lute seeks his fourth straight win and will be odds-on to keep his winning streak alive.  The Baffert-trained colt has Grade-1 quality speed figures and can handle any distance or pace scenario.  His uncoupled stablemate, #1 Fame and Power, should run much better today from his good rail post and seems likely to make the running.  However, Gimme Da Lute figures to stalk and then exert his superiority when it matters.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Glory Bound; 6-Record Highs

The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s try a couple of newcomers in an unclassified maiden state-bred juvenile sprint.  #6 Record Highs reportedly has some ability so we’ll put him on top.  Most of the Gaines first timers run a bit better than they work so this son of Heatseeker may have found a good spot.  #2 Glory Bound, another son of Heatseeker, showed some speed during the preview session of the Barretts May Sale, working a quarter of a mile over the Del Mar main track in 22 seconds flat.  His recent drills are decent so he should fit nicely in this moderate spot.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but not really with a whole lot of confidence.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Signature Cat; 3-Oil; 8-Mr. Zippers

This first-level state-bred allowance turf sprint looks wide open so we suggest you use as many as you can afford to.  #2 Signature Cat makes his first start since being claimed by D’Amato, so considerable improvement is likely.  Freshened since mid-June, protected in a sign of confidence, and working very well in recent weeks, the Discreet Cat gelding seems most effective when allowed to show his natural speed sprinting and looks dangerous from the rail.  The barn’s go-to rider, Baze, takes the mount.   #3 Oil should like this abbreviated five furlong trip but he’s burned money in each of his last three starts and isn’t necessarily one to trust.  However, you have to use him.  #8 Mr. Zippers won at first asking and did it cleverly; it wasn’t a fast race by any means and this is a much tougher group but the Square Eddie gelding showed a bit of moxie in victory and could outrun his 12-1 morning line odds.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 6-Bluegrass Sight

We’re going to use #6 Bluegrass Sight as a single but this is a default play and in fact it might be wiser to either use them all in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.  ‘Sight has the blinkers off angle we like so much and he’s dropping two levels in class for Miyadi while retaining Talamo.  He exits a much tougher race and has back figures that are good enough to win in this league.  At 5-1 on the morning line he offers a bit of value but we wouldn’t take much less than that.  Tread lightly here.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Shallot; 6-Matter of Luck; 12-Gold Journey

This is another race we have no plans to play but the three listed above are as good as any and small tickets players can use them in rolling exotic play.  However, you should include as many as you can afford to.  #6 Matter of Luck broke her maiden at the bottom here last month and is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer.  She’s a fit on numbers and if she can turn in two alike she can win right back.  #3 Shallot exits a much tougher race on turf and a repeat of her race before last – a maiden claiming win at Los Alamitos – charts well with this group.  #12 Gold Journey usually gets at least a piece of it and is drawn comfortably outside.  She’ll likely get the stalking trip she enjoys.  We’ve graded this race a “C” so nothing would surprise us.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Semper Fortis; 6-Who’s Out

#4 Semper Fortis was 14 lengths clear of the third horse in a promising debut effort when second behind highly-rated winner Blameitonthelaw and probably won’t be facing anything that good in here.  Any kind of forward move should make him tough to beat.  #6 Who’s Out was actually favored in the same race Semper Fortis and was a strong pace factor for a half before folding up.  He’s come back to train quite well since that race and may deserve another chance so we’ll toss him in as well.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in a race that doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Holograeme; 5- Sweet; 8-Daddy’s Duo

#4 Holograeme was somewhat victimized by an extreme outside post and settled for third money in a similar event earlier this month.  She’s drawn better today, retains Baze, and has plenty of room for improvement in what is just her fifth lifetime start for D’Amato.  Two easy workouts since her last race should have the daughter of Graeme Hall on edge.  #5 Sweet has steadily improving numbers for Mandella and should produce a good late run.  Prat should have her settled in the second flight, ready to pounce.  #8 Daddy’s Duo tries two turns for the first time and the daughter of Scat Daddy certainly should like it.  Her natural speed should allow Perez to draft into a good pace prompting position and if she continues to progress, the Desormeaux trained filly has a real look here at 8-1 on the morning line.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics, with Holograeme getting a slight edge on top.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 7-Soul Flyer; 8-Don’t Tell Judy; 9-Stellata; 12-Parasail

This race is a mess; we’ll use four but feel free to go deeper if you can.  #7 Soul Flier shortens up a half-furlong in her second start off a layoff and should be fitter and tougher today in this moderate straight maiden sprint for older fillies and mares.  The Canani-trained filly retains Van Dyke and a bullet three furlong blowout just five days ago should have the daughter of Bertrando right on edge.  #8 Don’t Tell Judy has shown some ability in the morning for Owens and is bred to win early (Rocky Bar). #9 Stellata, another debut runner, is a daughter of Stormin’ Fever with a decent set of works and might actually be heard from late.   #12 Parasail, a first timer by Surf Cat in the Gus Headley barn, has a series of fast works to her credit, as per usual from this stable, and we’re expecting her to display good early speed.  Maybe she can clear and get brave.  

AUGUST 29, 2015 – SARATOGA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S $2 PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

SARATOGA - $48 investment

1st race: 1, 8

2nd race: 6, 8, 9

3rd race: 3

4th race: 2, 8, 9, 10

5th race: 3

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (11:45 ET) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Belisarius; 8-Grey Wizard

The opener is a first-level 11-furlong mini-marathon that doesn’t appear particularly inspiring.  #8 Grey Wizard seems to be improving with racing; if the lightly-raced son of Kitten’s Joy can produce another forward move for Chad Brown he can score again after breaking his maiden in solid fashion in June at Belmont Park.  He’s grinder-type without a massive turn of foot but he’s proven at the distance and with just four prior starts probably has a bit more upside then his main competitors.  #1 Belisarius has been knocking at the door at this condition ever since arriving from Ireland more than a year ago.  He’s been close but hasn’t yet been able to break through, and with just one win to go along with 10 seconds and thirds, he’s developed a reputation as a bit of a hanger.  We’ll throw him but recognize that at 2-1 on the morning line he offers little in the way of value.

SECOND RACE (12:18 ET) – GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Attraction; 8-Virga; 9-Ready Dancer

This maiden sprint for juveniles is loaded with newcomers from top stables with fancy pedigrees and solid work tabs.  The three listed above are preferred, but if you feel the need to go deeper by all means do so.  #8 Virga is bred to win early (Street Boss) and shows an impressive series of drills for a stable that is solid with first-time starters.  He looks cranked up and ready to go and at 5-1 on the ML he’s worth strong consideration in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.  #9 Ready Dancer has the benefit of two prior runs and is improving with racing for Pletcher; he’s adding blinkers today and is strictly the one to beat.  #6 Attraction has a pedigree (Blame) that suggests he probably wants more than six furlongs to be at his best, but he does sport a healthy work tab for a solid outfit and at 8-1 on the morning line seems worthy of inclusion as well.

THIRD RACE (12:51 ET) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Tango Time

#3 Tango Time was very well-meant in her U.S. debut last month at Belmont Park but walked out of the gate, became extremely rank behind very slow early splits, and then, after producing a serious bid inside the furlong pole, flattened out late.  Castellano stays aboard for Pletcher and we expect this talented Irish import to produce a forward move in this entry-level middle distance turf for fillies and mares.  At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single in field containing nothing else that catches our eye.

FOURTH RACE (1:25 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Conquest Nitro; 8-Wild Man; 9-Eternal Bird; 10-Tale of S’avall

This is a split of the second race and appears equally wide open.  We’ll use four in our rolling exotics but this is another event that might require a substantial spread.  #8 Wild Man is a half-brother to the very fast Muppet Man and out of a half-sister to the brilliantly quick Hot Novel so this Pulpit colt has a right to win early and his works indicate he’s fit and ready for Asmussen.  We’ll prefer him on top and if he’s anywhere near his morning line of 6-1 we’ll use him in the straight pool as well.  #2 Conquest Nitro has finished in the money in both of his starts, most recently second in a similar event here earlier this month.  He probably can’t beat a real good maiden on this circuit; there may (or may not) be one in here.  #9 Eternal Bird is certainly not bred to sprint (by Tiznow from a half-sister to Birdstone) but he’s done plenty of good work in the a.m. for Brown, who excels with, among most other things, first time starters.  We’ll use him.  #10 Tale of S’avall has a series of workouts that indicate speed and ability and this son of Tale of Ekati offers legitimate price value at 10-1 on the morning line.

FIFTH RACE (2:00 ET) – GRADE: A-

Single: 3-America’s Kitten

#3 America’s Kitten showed a considerable amount of promise in his debut – he was fifth in a race common to many of these last month – and with that effort under his belt the son of Kitten’s Joy should produce a significant forward move today.  Brown’s maidens click at 32% in their second start and this colt, after finding his best stride late and galloping out past the wire in front of the rest of the pack, should be a lot more serious today.  Castellano got know him last time and stays aboard; at 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make this colt a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:35 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Sheer Drama; 4-Stopchargingmaria

It’s pretty hard to pick against #4 Stopchargingmaria at Saratoga; she’s won four of five at the Spa and there’s every reason to believe she’ll reproduce her best form again today. Proponents of weight as a key handicapping factor will point to the fact that ‘Maria just defeated #6 Untapable in the Shuvee earlier this month by a length while getting three lbs.; today they’re at equal weights so the pendulum might swing to Untapable.  Weight shift or not, we’re sticking with ‘Maria.  #2 Sheer Drama has been first or second in 13 of 18 career starts and always lays her body down; she should be in striking position throughout in a race that figures to be slowly run early.  You could easily use all three contenders in your rolling exotics and be safe, or take a stand and choose one; we’ll split the difference by preferring Stopchargingmaria on top and then have a ticket or two saving with Sheer Drama.

SEVENTH RACE (3:10 ET) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Merry Meadow; 6-Dame Dorothy; 7-Unbridled Forever

This is a legitimate Grade 1 sprint for older fillies and mares.  With the scratching of #2 La Verdad, this race's projected pace scenario takes on a considerably softer look, which certainly figures to help #3 Merry Meadow.   Originally we had left her off our rolling exotic tickets but we'll include her now to replace La Verdad.  Merry Meadow, freshened and training very well since her win in the Princess Rooney Stakes in early July, should be comfortably placed in a pace-stalking/forcing position and should have every chance to reproduce her best form.  Our top pick remains #6 Dame Dorothy;  she is a seven furlong specialist (perfect four-for-four), though this will be her first start at Saratoga.  She’s never been particularly fast on speed figures but she did earn a career top number in her most recent start, the Bed O Roses at Belmont in mid-June, and she’s been training like she’s fit and ready for Pletcher.  #7 Unbridled Forever also is perfect at this seven furlong trip (2-for-2) and though nine of her 11 career starts have been at distances of a mile or more, the evidence is mounting that she’s always wanted to be a late-running sprinter.  Her win in the Shine Again Stakes earlier this month produced a career top speed figure in her first start since last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff and if the game plan is to keep her around one turn this year she could be a major force in this division leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  However, without the speedy La Verdad in the field, her come-from-behind style may be compromised.  We'll see today if she’s truly Grade 1 material.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while ever so slightly preferring Dame Dorothy on top.

EIGHTH RACE (3:47 ET) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Watershed; 6-Limousine Liberal; 7-Holy Boss

This looks like an exceptional edition of the King’s Bishop, a race in which deep closers often outrun their odds.  If there’s a pace meltdown today it could happen again. #4 Watershed was as visually impressive as a maiden could be when scoring in jaw-dropping fashion at first asking three weeks ago over this track at six furlongs; his late-running style gives every indication that this extended sprint trip should be right up his alley.  Of course, the jump from maiden to the Grade 1 level at Saratoga is monumental for an older race horse and Watershed will have to be extraordinary to do so, but if Godolphin and McLaughlin believe he’s up to it, we’re willing to gamble at 8-1 that they’re right.  If not, there are many in here capable of winning.  #7 Holy Boss has reeled off four straight victories and each time he’s been more impressive than his score.  His figures keep rising and he has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint trip, so the son of Street Boss must be considered the one to beat. #6 Limousine Liberal overcame a brutal trip to win at first asking at Churchill Downs and then toyed with first-level allowance foes at Ellis Park in his next start.  He still has a ways to go to be competitive at this level on speed figures, but who really knows how good he is?   The son of Successful Appeal has been burning up the Keeneland main track in recent weeks and surely has another major forward move in him, so at 30-1 on the morning line, why not toss him in?

NINTH RACE (4:25 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-The Big Beast; 6-Tamarkuz; 7-Private Zone

#7 Private Zone is fast, genuine, and consistent and should be on or near the lead (as usual) without having to go particularly fast during the early stages in a race that doesn’t have all that much early zip in it.   The projected pace scenario of the Forego makes him the one to beat, and if you like him you’re probably thinking his morning line of 3-1 is generous.  However, this is no stroll in the park, as both #5 The Big Beast and #6 Tamarkuz have strong credentials of their own.  The Big Beast ran Rock Fall to a nose in the Vanderbilt a month ago while earning a career top number and with two nice works since that race he should fire a similar shot today.  Tamarkus, a highly respectable fourth in the Met Mile behind Honor Code (and finishing just over a length behind Private Zone) after looming a bold threat entering the lane, was given time off to recuperate after a hard race (and a tough Dubai campaign before that) and returns today for McLaughlin in a race he’s quite capable of winning.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while conceding that morning line of 5-1 for Tamarkuz makes him looks extremely inviting.

TENTH RACE (5:04 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Flintshire

Top class European shipper #2 Flintshire finished a superior second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and though he’s winless this year in four starts there’s nothing wrong at all with his form.  Most recently second to the brilliant Treve in a Group-1 in France, the Fabre-trained world traveler simply should outclass a field comprised mostly of American turf performers who have taken turns beating each another throughout the year.  If it’s not Flintshire, it could be #1 Imagining or #4 Red Rifle or #5 Twilight Eclipse or even one of the other two European shippers, but if Flintshire shows up with his best, he’ll win. 

ELEVENTH RACE (5:46 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 2-American Pharoah

Not that he needed it, but the projected pace scenario of the Travers gives #2 American Pharoah an advantage similar to the one he enjoyed in the Belmont Stakes, that of being the controlling speed in a race that he figures to dominate from gate to wire.  We know he doesn’t need the lead to win but from the number two post Espinoza surely will let him stride out and establish the running.  From there he can do pretty much whatever he wants, and a repeat of the Haskell – a race in which he never had to extend himself at any stage - seems more than likely.  #4 Texas Red should be within striking range and have every chance; a case could be made that he’s the best 3-year-old ‘Pharoah will have faced this year.  We’ll see if he’s good enough to at least make the final furlong interesting.

TWELFTH RACE (6:20 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Tepin; 4-Dacita; 7-Kitten’s Queen

#1 Tepin lost a heartbreaker to Hard Not to Like in the Diana S.-G1 last month over this course and deserves better luck today.  Her front-running/stalking style from her rail post should allow Leparoux to secure whatever trip he wants, and with three consecutive triple-digit Beyer numbers in her last three starts she has developed into a thoroughly consistent and high-class middle distance turf performer.  #7 Kitten’s Queen, in the photo with Tepin in the Diana after cutting out all of the fractions (specifically to set things up for stablemate Stephanie’s Kitten who is bypassing the race), gets to run her own race today and while she has more than enough early zip to make the pace, she has won as a stalker in the past, so perhaps that strategy will be employed today.  Not matter how she’s ridden she’s a major player.  #4 Dacita is a multiple Group-1 winner from Chile, which can mean anything, but given her connections she has to be taken at least somewhat seriously.  In her nine race career, she’s been defeated only three times, once in her debut, once when she didn’t break well, and once when she failed to stay 12 furlongs.  We have to include her.

THIRTEENTH RACE (6:53 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Ode to the Hunt; 4-Tiger D; 12-Jax Heritage

#3 Ode to the Hunt makes his first start since January and if he’s fit and ready this son of Artie Schiller certainly seems capable of winning this first-level state-bred allowance race.  Most effective when held up and allowed to produce the last run, the Violette-trained colt gets Irad Ortiz and the rail and should enjoy a good ground-saving trip.  However, he’s just one of a bunch that have credentials in this grass grab bag.  #4 Tiger D is a first-time gelding now in the Delacour barn and may be a better type this time around in his first outing since March.  The son of Grand Slam ran well over this course last year and has back figures that put him in the picture.  #12 Jax Heritage is stuck away outside and will have to drop over and somehow negotiate a decent trip.  If Leparoux can manage to save some ground early on, this More than Ready colt could produce the last run.  We’ll try to get by using just these three, but with American Pharoah as a free bingo space in late pick-3 and pick-4, the opportunity is there to spread or even buy this race.