JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

(December 16-20, 2015)

Sunday, December 20 – In eight prior starts Canadian shipper Still Krz had never been entered for a tag and had never raced on anything other than the poly track at Woodbine so when the 3-year-old gelding showed up in a restricted (nw-3) $30,000 seller in the seventh race he was intriguing at 12-1 on the morning line.  The son of Old Forester got some action and left at 8-1, took the 4/5 favorite Galardonado by the throat soon after the start, and then ran that one into ground before drawing off nicely to register a two and one-half length victory.  In doing so he earned 89 Beyer speed figure, a career top by 10 points.  Clearly, he likes conventional dirt and has a relaxed pressing style, so trainer Michael DePaulo has the option to stretch him out a bit.

Next Race: Still Krz won a restricted (Canadian-bred) allowance race at Woodbine in October so he still has the first condition available on this circuit.  There’s a non-winners of two/optional $25,000 at five furlongs on turf written as a sub race on Jan. 16 that might be considered.  There’s actually a race at seven furlongs that’s almost identical to the one he won today listed as sub in the book on Jan. 17.  There’s also a straight $35,000 claimer at seven and one-half furlongs on turf written as a sub Jan. 13 that might be intriguing. 

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK-DP98vYUw

Saturday, December 19 – Rather than try to describe the performance by first-time starter Conquest Sandman in the sixth race we suggest you click the link below and watch it for yourself.  Suffice to say that this two-year-old has a very nice future for trainer Mark Casse.  Green as the grass he raced over and losing many lengths in ground after being forced extremely wide throughout, the son of Scat Daddy managed to keep on relentlessly in the final furlong and wound up second, beaten a neck, to stablemate Southside Warrior in this nine furlong affair that offered a fairly representative field for the level.  An $80,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, Conquest Sandman is out of a half-sister to champion Canadian turf mare Sweetest Thing, so we suspect he’ll be kept on turf for now.  If (and when) he learns to relax and settle early, this colt could be the goods.

Next Race: There’s a logical turf race Jan. 2 that seems back a bit quick, and the maiden long the following week is on dirt, so Casse might just wait until the following book and point for something in the latter part of the month.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOLmM1Qzpg0

Friday, December 18 – Based purely on pedigree Flatlined shouldn’t be that much better, if at all, on turf than he is on dirt.  His “tons the best” victory in the fifth race continued his improving pattern, and since his last two starts came on the lawn it’s unclear whether he’s developed into a grass specialist, getting better with experience, or flourishing since joining the Charles Dickey barn two races back.  In this maiden special weight middle distance event, the 3-year-old left from the next-to-the-outside post in the field of 12 and never even came close to seeing the rail, nor could he could locate any “cover” throughout the running.  Basically, this is the absolute worst type of trip you can encounter in a two-turn grass race, yet this gelding, after being ninth early on, hit the front entering the lane and then bravely fought off runner-up Old Sport to graduate in his fifth career start.  It’s the kind of performance that looks so much better visually than it will on paper that Flatlined should be a square price when he tackles non-winners of two after the first of the year.

Next race: There’s a race in the condition book on January 9 that suits him perfectly – a first-level allowance race at a mile and one-sixteenth on grass – and if Dickey opts to bring him back in three weeks this is likely where you’ll see him next.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veqAk_Uz5Pc

Thursday, December 17 – Shameless Lass showed a bit of promise when finishing second vs. straight maiden company in her only prior start last summer at Woodbine, so it was surprising – if not a tad suspicious – that she returned in a bottom-rung maiden claiming $12,500 event in today’s third race.  Two listed workouts – one of them a bullet at three furlongs – had her fit and ready and the result was a 10 length romp without the need of the stick at 30 cents on the dollar.  However, as visually pleasing as the victory was, her modest 51 Beyer number indicates that owner/trainer William Tharrenes shouldn’t get too ambitious in searching for the proper spot for her first try vs. winners. 

Next Race: There’s a straight $20,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies on Jan. 7 in the next book that seems logical but that race might be back a little quick.  Other options include a pair of opportunities at Tampa Bay Downs: a starter’s allowance $25,000 race on Jan. 10 or a straight $16,000 claimer Jan. 15.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uns4oALtqbw

Wednesday, December 16 – Based on his 3-year-old form, Tapitation was never going to justify his $330,000 yearling purchase price, but in 2015 for new trainer Ralph Nicks, the son of Tapit has improved dramatically.  It may not have been just the barn switch; in winning today’s ninth race the New York-bred now is undefeated in three starts since being gelded.  It wasn’t easy.  Pinched back to lose valuable position after the start, Tapitation settled early toward the rear of pack, advanced willingly inside midway to move within range, accelerated impressively despite rallying into the teeth of a crawling pace, and then managed to fight off the promising Belmont debut winner Arghad to capture this stronger-than-par open first-level allowance event.  Furthermore, Tapitation was never going to let his challenger go by, as illustrated by his powerful gallop out.  Assuming it was accurate, the time of 1:46.32 was slow, however, it was a product of a walking pace that prevented a “normal” final clocking, rendering any time-based speed figure meaningless. 

Next Race:  Tapitation likely will re-appear on the one-level raise in January.  All three of his wins this year have come on turf, so we’d expect to see him kept on the lawn (though his dirt track form early in his career was pretty decent, too).  Arghad verified the promise he displayed in his maiden win in June at Belmont Park and was making his first start since; the Kieran McLaughlin-trained son of Distorted Humor will be a short price when he returns under similar conditions after the first of the year.

Watch the race:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2vCB1WVsSw