WE’VE MOVED!!!

Followers of this blog should bookmark Jeff’s new website – jeffsiegelracing.com – where the contents that previously had appeared in this space (plus a whole lot more) will now be available.  Jeff’s full-card Santa Anita analysis and wagering strategies, his two daily “Day Makers,” his live “in game” commentary, “Black Books” for both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park, and Top-40 Triple Crown Rankings all appear on the new website.  And, as always, everything is FREE!

“DAY MAKERS” FOR SATURDAY, DEC. 26, 2015

GULFSTREAM PARK – 8^th race - #2 WHEELS UP NOW (7/2)

Wheels Up Now is an improving son of Smart Strike and looks ready to graduate in this maiden special weight affair for juveniles over a one-turn mile.  Most recently the Albertrani-trained colt finished second in a powerful, highly-productive extended sprint at Aqueduct; the winner, Vorticity, came back to take the Marylander Stakes at Laurel, the third place finisher, Condo King, returned in his next start to break his maiden with a strong figure, and the fourth place finisher, Stradivari, graduated by more than 11 lengths in his next appearance here opening day over a route of ground.  Wheels Up Now adds blinkers, catches a field without much early speed among the known element, and should on or near the lead throughout.  There’s plenty of value here at the morning line odds of 7/2 if you can get it.

GULFSTREAM PARK – 10^th race - #2 STORMY ROCIT (3-1)

Stormy Rocit, in his 18^th career outing, finally makes his first start around two turns and the speedy gelding should have every chance to dominate on the front end from his comfortable inside post.  He’s a first-off-the-claim for Maker (21%) in his first start late August, and the recent work tab has been nothing short of sensational.  With the presence of Castellano in the saddle and in a field that doesn’t have all that much early zip in it, the son of Stormy Atlantic should have every opportunity to regain his winning form in this seven and one-half furlong optional claimer.

JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

(December 16-20, 2015)

Sunday, December 20 – In eight prior starts Canadian shipper Still Krz had never been entered for a tag and had never raced on anything other than the poly track at Woodbine so when the 3-year-old gelding showed up in a restricted (nw-3) $30,000 seller in the seventh race he was intriguing at 12-1 on the morning line.  The son of Old Forester got some action and left at 8-1, took the 4/5 favorite Galardonado by the throat soon after the start, and then ran that one into ground before drawing off nicely to register a two and one-half length victory.  In doing so he earned 89 Beyer speed figure, a career top by 10 points.  Clearly, he likes conventional dirt and has a relaxed pressing style, so trainer Michael DePaulo has the option to stretch him out a bit.

Next Race: Still Krz won a restricted (Canadian-bred) allowance race at Woodbine in October so he still has the first condition available on this circuit.  There’s a non-winners of two/optional $25,000 at five furlongs on turf written as a sub race on Jan. 16 that might be considered.  There’s actually a race at seven furlongs that’s almost identical to the one he won today listed as sub in the book on Jan. 17.  There’s also a straight $35,000 claimer at seven and one-half furlongs on turf written as a sub Jan. 13 that might be intriguing. 

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK-DP98vYUw

Saturday, December 19 – Rather than try to describe the performance by first-time starter Conquest Sandman in the sixth race we suggest you click the link below and watch it for yourself.  Suffice to say that this two-year-old has a very nice future for trainer Mark Casse.  Green as the grass he raced over and losing many lengths in ground after being forced extremely wide throughout, the son of Scat Daddy managed to keep on relentlessly in the final furlong and wound up second, beaten a neck, to stablemate Southside Warrior in this nine furlong affair that offered a fairly representative field for the level.  An $80,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, Conquest Sandman is out of a half-sister to champion Canadian turf mare Sweetest Thing, so we suspect he’ll be kept on turf for now.  If (and when) he learns to relax and settle early, this colt could be the goods.

Next Race: There’s a logical turf race Jan. 2 that seems back a bit quick, and the maiden long the following week is on dirt, so Casse might just wait until the following book and point for something in the latter part of the month.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOLmM1Qzpg0

Friday, December 18 – Based purely on pedigree Flatlined shouldn’t be that much better, if at all, on turf than he is on dirt.  His “tons the best” victory in the fifth race continued his improving pattern, and since his last two starts came on the lawn it’s unclear whether he’s developed into a grass specialist, getting better with experience, or flourishing since joining the Charles Dickey barn two races back.  In this maiden special weight middle distance event, the 3-year-old left from the next-to-the-outside post in the field of 12 and never even came close to seeing the rail, nor could he could locate any “cover” throughout the running.  Basically, this is the absolute worst type of trip you can encounter in a two-turn grass race, yet this gelding, after being ninth early on, hit the front entering the lane and then bravely fought off runner-up Old Sport to graduate in his fifth career start.  It’s the kind of performance that looks so much better visually than it will on paper that Flatlined should be a square price when he tackles non-winners of two after the first of the year.

Next race: There’s a race in the condition book on January 9 that suits him perfectly – a first-level allowance race at a mile and one-sixteenth on grass – and if Dickey opts to bring him back in three weeks this is likely where you’ll see him next.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veqAk_Uz5Pc

Thursday, December 17 – Shameless Lass showed a bit of promise when finishing second vs. straight maiden company in her only prior start last summer at Woodbine, so it was surprising – if not a tad suspicious – that she returned in a bottom-rung maiden claiming $12,500 event in today’s third race.  Two listed workouts – one of them a bullet at three furlongs – had her fit and ready and the result was a 10 length romp without the need of the stick at 30 cents on the dollar.  However, as visually pleasing as the victory was, her modest 51 Beyer number indicates that owner/trainer William Tharrenes shouldn’t get too ambitious in searching for the proper spot for her first try vs. winners. 

Next Race: There’s a straight $20,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies on Jan. 7 in the next book that seems logical but that race might be back a little quick.  Other options include a pair of opportunities at Tampa Bay Downs: a starter’s allowance $25,000 race on Jan. 10 or a straight $16,000 claimer Jan. 15.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uns4oALtqbw

Wednesday, December 16 – Based on his 3-year-old form, Tapitation was never going to justify his $330,000 yearling purchase price, but in 2015 for new trainer Ralph Nicks, the son of Tapit has improved dramatically.  It may not have been just the barn switch; in winning today’s ninth race the New York-bred now is undefeated in three starts since being gelded.  It wasn’t easy.  Pinched back to lose valuable position after the start, Tapitation settled early toward the rear of pack, advanced willingly inside midway to move within range, accelerated impressively despite rallying into the teeth of a crawling pace, and then managed to fight off the promising Belmont debut winner Arghad to capture this stronger-than-par open first-level allowance event.  Furthermore, Tapitation was never going to let his challenger go by, as illustrated by his powerful gallop out.  Assuming it was accurate, the time of 1:46.32 was slow, however, it was a product of a walking pace that prevented a “normal” final clocking, rendering any time-based speed figure meaningless. 

Next Race:  Tapitation likely will re-appear on the one-level raise in January.  All three of his wins this year have come on turf, so we’d expect to see him kept on the lawn (though his dirt track form early in his career was pretty decent, too).  Arghad verified the promise he displayed in his maiden win in June at Belmont Park and was making his first start since; the Kieran McLaughlin-trained son of Distorted Humor will be a short price when he returns under similar conditions after the first of the year.

Watch the race:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2vCB1WVsSw

JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

(December 9-13, 2015)

Sunday December 13 – It certainly wasn’t the strongest two-year-old filly maiden special weight race you’ll see during this meeting, but today’s seventh race probably had handicappers who backed CONQUEST DYNASTY pulling their hair out when the daughter of Court Vision missed by a diminishing nose after encountering several lengths of trouble along the way.  This was her fifth career start but her first on turf, and the Mark Casse-trained Canadian-bred filly looks to have found her preferred surface.  She was forced to take up early and then had to alter course sharply when running into a roadblock in mid-stretch; with any kind of clear trip she certainly would have won by daylight. 

Next Start:  Conquest Dynasty doesn’t have a noteworthy turn of foot – she’s more of a grinder – so we’d expect she’ll benefit from any added distance.  She’ll likely return in a similar maiden turf race after the first of the year; however, even with a clean trip she’ll probably have to improve a bit to beat what figures to be a stronger field than what she faced today.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuYfwLNo724

Saturday, December 12 – CALI STAR had left her previous form behind in her first start since changing trainers to Marty Wolfson when she earned a career top speed figure in a five length two-turn mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park West last month.  Two exceptionally sharp half mile breezes since that race, including a (fastest-of-79) 47 2/5 seconds drill just five days ago indicated she was continuing to progress, so it was not surprising that the daughter of Street Cry produced another forward move in defeating her Wolfson-trained stablemate (and favored) BEST BEHAVIOR in today’s third race, the one-turn mile Rampart S.-G3.  It’s hard to believe that she had won just two of her first 16 starts (when trained by Alice Cohn) prior to the trainer switch.  ‘Behavior ran her race but was no match late while STIFFED finished with interest to be a distant third while never a factor.

Next race: There’s nothing at Gulfstream Park on dirt for Cali Star until the $200,000 Royal Delta S.-G2 at a mile and one-sixteenth Feb. 13 so that could be her next start.  If so, the group she’ll face in that race should be considerably tougher than this field and the 89 Beyer speed figure earned in this race will have to be improved on.  Perhaps her connections will take her on the road to find an easier spot.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_SzzAPYBB0

The seventh race, a maiden special weight affair for juveniles over seven and one-half furlongs, offered two expensive Pletcher first-timers, KISMET’S HEELS and GIMLET, and it wasn’t difficult to believe that the winner would be one or the other.  However, URBAN BOURBON, with four prior runs, (all sprinting) and second in his last pair, managed to capitalize on a perfect ground-saving, stalking trip to earn his diploma, doing so after the red sea open for him along the fence entering the lane.  The Eddie Kenneally-trained son of City Zip, after building a four length lead at the furlong pole, survived over the Pletcher duo in a race that certainly flatters him.  Kismet’s Heels, a $900,000 two-year-old in training purchased by Tapit, walked out of the gate, settled nicely, commenced his rally very wide on the turn and kept on strongly before running out of ground.  He’s the one you want to own out of this race.  Gimlet was widest of all – and we’re talking eight or nine wide – entering the lane while producing a decent bid before running out of steam close home. 

Next Race: Urban Bourbon probably is a bet-against when he returns vs. non-winners of two next month.  He’ll never get a better trip.  Kismet’s Heels and Gimlet – assuming they both came out of the race in good order – could very well meet again in a two-turn turf maiden event in January.  Both have plenty of improvement in them, with ‘Heels the one that should really benefit greatly from added distance.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZY67rIwNME

Wednesday, December 9 – The featured ninth race appeared to be an unusually competitive affair for a first-level allowance/optional $25,000 claimer, and with a field of 13 competing over seven and one-half furlongs the race seemed likely to be decided by trip.  That THE IMPOSTER managed to get there first despite leaving from the extreme outside post and then having little go right for him throughout a rugged journey makes his performance especially impressive.  And it’s not a coincidence that in three starts since being claimed for $35,000 by Joe Sharp in early September the son of Wilko has improved markedly.  In his first outing for Sharp in October at Belmont Park, The Imposter was beaten a neck in a solid effort while being dropped to nw-3 $25,000 claimer.  In his next start a month later at Aqueduct the grey gelding won a $50,000 nw-3 seller in brave fashion by a neck.  Now, no longer eligible to restricted claimers, The Imposter returned to the $25,000 level but in this optional claimer was clearly facing a deeper, stronger field than he had just beaten.  His victory, accomplished with a career top speed figure, gives indication that he can win again for Sharp, even if raised a notch or two.

Also worth noting is the fifth place effort by the old pro CONCERT STAGE, who was finishing fastest of all to wind up fifth, beaten two lengths after failing to secure room when launching a bid along the rail in the upper stretch.  There’s no doubt that had he gotten through, the winner of 12 career races would have been right there.

Next Start – Since joining the Sharp barn The Imposter has raced once a month, so we’ll expect to see the gelding back in the entries sometime in mid-January, perhaps vs. $35,000 open claimers.  Concert Stage has shown the ability run very well off short rest, so it would not be surprising if he returns before the end of the month, though it would have to be in an extra since no suitable race appears in the condition book.

Watch the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLelPhgxeiI

JEFF SIEGEL’S GULFSTREAM PARK BLACK BOOK

DECEMBER 5-6, 2015

Sunday, December 6 - The Todd Pletcher barn certainly has hit the ground running.  In the sixth race, debuting juvenile filly DARING BRIDE wound up facing only four rivals in what was originally slated to be a 1 1/16 miles maiden event on turf; with so many scratches and nothing left to take money the daughter of Scat Daddy predictably left at a very short price, 40 cents on the dollar.  She did plenty wrong, but still won without a challenge, and while the final time was unimpressive and the Beyer speed figure (55) shockingly low, there was evidence of good potential.  Breaking slowly and racing somewhat awkwardly entering the first turn, she became rank while taking dirt behind crawling fractions until the field entered the backstretch, at which time she was angled out to be widest of all while quickly moving up to prompt the pace.  The others steadily dropped away and by the time the field hit the mid-point on the turn it was evident that Daring Bride would win as she pleased.  The official margin was just shy of seven lengths but it would have been double digits had she not shied from something inside the sixteenth pole causing her to shift in badly – nearly striking the rail – before being corrected sharply by Johnny V. and in the process losing her best action.  One would assume that she’ll learn a ton from the experience.  This filly is a credit to her sire, as there are no graded stakes winners (and just three listed stakes winners) under her first three dams.  Scat Daddy, in fact, has proven to be one of North America’s most versatile stallions; he gets good colts as well as fillies and his offspring can run short, long, dirt or turf.  

Next Start:  Since Pletcher originally entered her for turf, it would not be surprising if Daring Bride shows up next in a non-winners of two grass router early in 2016.  We would expect a much more professional performance from a filly whose modest speed figure hardly is a true indicator of her natural ability.

Watch race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3VQc_TsOuo

Saturday, December 5 - Common sense tells us not to place too much stock in any off-the-turf, wet track maiden performance no matter how visually impressive it might have been.  But the victory by STRADIVARI in the meet’s first race will make his next start – hopefully under dry conditions – a “must see”.  Given a race when a non-threatening fourth in his debut sprinting at Aqueduct last month, the son of Medaglia d’Oro was entered “main track only” and drew in when the race came off the lawn.  Part of the pace 1-off the rail to the head of the lane, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt found another gear when turned loose and quickly lengthened at will to win by more than 11 lengths with a final sixteenth in six seconds flat.  The Beyer speed figure of 78 was okay, nothing special, but we doubt it does him justice. The fifth foal from the 14-year old high class multiple stakes winning sprinter Bending Strings, Stradivari becomes his dam’s first winner from four previous starters and by himself may very well make up for all of the mare’s previous disappointments.  

Next Start:  This stable prefers to give its young horses at least a few weeks in between races and since there’s no suitable first-level allowance two-turn race listed in the GPX condition book the remainder of this month, Stradivari likely won’t be seen again until after the first of the year.

Watch race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3MM8mQyGP0

Thirty minutes later in the second race Pletcher unveiled another excellent prospect, a Bernardini colt named ZULU, who bravely fought off another well-meant first-timer, SHARP AZTECA (Freud) to register a two length score in a sharp 1:10.06 over a wet track that was listed “good.”  The assigned Beyer number of 81 is solid for the level.  A half-brother to two listed stakes winners but from a dam that was 17-years-old when she foaled him, Zula breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at Gulfstream Park last March in the Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old in training sale and then brought $900,000 at auction.  Pletcher’s percentage with first-timers is a superb 22% from nearly 300 runners according to the stats from DRF so it wasn’t surprising that Zula justified his 3/5 backing.  First impressions indicate he could be a quality colt; however he possesses the type of quick action that makes him suspect at this stage of his career at distances farther than one mile.  This was legitimate maiden sprint that should prove productive; you should keep close tabs on horses exiting this race.  

Next Start:  As in the case of Stradivari, Zulu likely won’t reappear until after the first of the year, and logically will return in a non-winners of two sprint. 

Watch race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgYCeS-wHdI

SOMETHING NEW – AND BETTER - FOR 2016!

As we await the launching of xbtv.com soon after the first of the year, we will expand our blog into a functional website that will contain many new elements designed for the daily horse player.  Some of the new features will include:

·       *   Day Makers from Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Golden Gate Fields, and Aqueduct.

·         * Black Books for Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park highlighting key races and horses to follow, updated weekly.

·         * Triple Crown Tracker, with regularly-updated rankings of the top 40 prospects in the class of 2016.

·         * Cooling Out,  our weekly 30-minute podcast with Aaron Vercruysse and Millie Ball that features a round table discussion of thoroughbred racing’s hot topics.

·         * Full Card Santa Anita seminars via Periscope on selected days.

·         * Extensive “in-game” commentary via twitter covering the racing from Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

The expanded website will debut later this month in time for the Dec. 26 opening of Santa Anita.  The content contained eventually will be housed at xbtv.com (currently in construction).  In the meantime, be sure to follow us on twitter - @jsiegelracing - for news, selections, updates, and commentary!

NOVEMBER 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Diablo Caballero; 6-Cool Green

#4 Diablo Caballero and #6 Cool Green meet again and look much the best of the others in this maiden special weight state-bred sprint.  ‘Caballero finished first in a similar event in mid-October but was dq’d for shutting off ‘Green in mid-stretch.  Had ‘Green gotten a clean run, he might have won.  These two are difficult to separate – either one can win today – so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise not getting too involved.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Vanlose Stairway; 4-With a Twist; 8-Intoxicating Move

#8 Intoxicating Move returns to her winning level and returns to her favorite turf course; we’re hoping that she can return to her best form as well.  The Carava-trained mare retains Nakatani and will be tough if she runs back to her highly-rated (and visually very impressive) victory over this course and distance during the summer meeting.  She was overmatched two races back in the Swingtime Stakes and was ineffective sprinting down the hill in her last start.  #4 With a Twist looked good beating a lesser field over this course earlier this month and was re-claimed by Hess, always a positive sign.  She’s back with Desormeaux, who has won with her in the past, and the veteran mare, a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar lawn, has a right to be dangerous once again despite the class hike.  #2 Vanlose Stairway comes off a clever win against a lesser field over this course and earned a speed figure that puts her in the hunt right back.  Gonzalez stays aboard for Spawr.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Intoxicating Move on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Purrin’ Proud; 7-Wise Tale

#7 Wise Tale drops from straight maiden to maiden claiming and will stick much better against this group.  Valdez should have him on or near the lead throughout.  #1 Purrin’ Proud has a series of solid sprints under his belt, draws the rail, and stretches out for the first time.  He has the pedigree to stay a mile and his speed figures are rising rapidly.  The winner should be one of these two and both are worth using in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Bird E House

This mini-marathon turf affair looks completely chaotic and nothing would surprise us.  We’re intrigued by #1 Bird E House and if you’re a small ticket player you should consider embracing this live 8-1 long shot (however, if you can afford to go deeper by all means do so). Bird E House makes a highly favorable jockey change to Desormeaux after finishing a willing fourth in a fairly contentious starter’s allowance event over this course and distance earlier this month.  He looks like the most dangerous of the deep closing types and may have some improvement in him.  He’s won 25% percent of his career starts, shows a win over this course, and from the rail should get an ideal ground-saving trip.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Perfect Set

#1 Perfect Set was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar when second behind #4 Ike Walker in a starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita last month.  The effort was well below his previous excellent Del Mar form, so we’re thinking that he just didn’t care for the track.  He’s back at Del Mar today and we’re going to assume that he’s ready to resume his winning ways following a string of very impressive recent workouts for Hollendorfer.  Garcia stays aboard, knows him well, and should have this Pleasantly Perfect gelding within striking range throughout at this 10-furlong trip.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Collected; 6-Ninety One Assault; 10-Dressed in Hermes

This is a strong race for juvenile turf milers and the three listed above all are highly promising sorts.  A win by any one of the three would not be surprising, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.  #2 Collected showed a ton of quality in graduating at first asking down the hill at Santa Anita; his moderate speed figure really doesn’t do him justice and we’re expecting him to move forward considerably on the stretch-out.  The son of City Zip has a ton of gas, but with #1 Manhattan Dan also in the field (and likely to gun to the lead from the rail), we’re anticipating that Garcia will employ stalking tactics on the Baffert-trained colt.  Based on pedigree the mile should be within his range and at 8-1 on the morning line there’s considerable value available.  #6 Ninety One Assault ran huge in his debut, missing by a nose after rallying wide and finishing eagerly to just miss.  He should benefit greatly from the outing, and the anticipated hot pace plays into his deep closing style.  He’s another 8-1 shot that has to be seriously considered.  #10 Dressed in Hermes didn’t run badly when fifth of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland and before that captured the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita.  His numbers are rising and Smith will have him doing his best work late. 

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Triple Crown; 4-Hard Gale

#4 Hard Gale is a highly-regarded first timer by Hard Spun with a series of very sharp works at San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato.  The barn is quite strong with debut runners and ‘Gale appears cranked up and ready to go.  We’ll put him on top but also use #1 Triple Crown, a fast-working Miller-trained juvenile, also from San Luis Rey Downs.  The rail is a concern but the stable is clever with first-timers and ‘Crown should be fit and ready.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Hard Not to Like; 3-Recepta; 8-Stellar Path; 9-Filimbi

The Matriarch is loaded with possibilities and a spread in rolling exotic play is required.  #1 Hard Not to Like failed to produce her best form when unplaced in the Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita but she’s clearly capable of winning a race like this with her top effort and the fact that Clement sends her west again indicates she’s back on the beam.  Johnny V. flies out to ride her and from the rail should be able to save valuable ground every step of the way.  At 9/2 on the morning line she’s as good as any.  #3 Recepta was out of her element in the B.C. Mile but is properly spotted against this level of competition and the daughter of Speightstown has a strong look off either of her victories in the Del La Rose and Noble Damsel.  She’s reunited with Trujillo and should settle somewhere in mid-pack, ready to pounce.  #8 Stellar Path comes here fresh from a nice score in the Athenia S. at Belmont Park with a career top figure and gives Clement a second strong bullet to fire.  At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth using somewhere.  #9 Filimbi probably will beat this field if she runs back to her close second to Tepin in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day.  She returned in an allowance race earlier this month in New York with a nice win and probably wasn’t cranked to the max, so we’re expecting to see her very best today.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Rim Nick; 8-Trump Diesel; 11-Miner’s Light

#8 Trump Diesel turned in an eye-opening 21 seconds flat breeze at the OBS April sale and then was purchased for $260,000.  A rangy, athletic colt from the first crop of Sidney’s Candy, he’s done some excellent work leading up to this debut for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs and seems plenty fit for a winning effort first crack out of the box under Pedroza.  At 8-1 on the morning line he appears to be offering loads of value in a very deep and contentious affair.  #6 Rim Nick is a hot first timer from the O’Neill barn that looks ready for a major performance in this loaded maiden juvenile extended sprint.  From the first crop of the good sprinter J. P.’s Gusto, he brought $230,000 at the Barretts May Sale after breezing a quarter mile in 21 1/5 seconds.  #11 Miner’s Light is clearly the one to beat after missing in a photo to subsequent graded stakes winner Exaggerator in his only outing during the summer Del Mar meeting in July.  He returns for Gaines with a healthy series of drills, retains Smith, and lands a comfortable outside post.  He’ll enjoy today’s extra furlong and figures to be charging late. 

NOVEMBER 28, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Roper; 8-Adair

A good nine-race program begins with a bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint.  #7 Roper already has had 10 chances and clearly isn’t one to trust, but he makes his first start since joining the D’Amato barn and his first since April, so massive improvement is possible.  A repeat of his race before last likely will be good enough to win.  The one to fear most may very well be his uncoupled stablemate, #8 Adair.  The works indicate some ability for a trainer that has excellent stats with debut runners, and at this level a little certainly will go a long way.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Alex Rossi; 4-Tulira Castle

We’ve rated this race a “C” and really don’t have any plans to get involved, as the favorites could dominate without offering any real value. #4 Tulia Castle seeks his fourth win in a row while making his first start for Spawr, but is not being raised by his new connections and clearly has issues (though his recent workouts seem good enough).  If he has one good one left he’ll most likely extend his winning streak but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not much wwe can do with him.  #1 Alex Rossi plummets in class from second level allowance company to $25,000, after finishing a reasonable third while earning a career top speed figure.  This is not a healthy pattern, however, the switch to Bejarano is encouraging.  There are mixed signal here, so it might be best not to get too involved.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Silent Movies; 4-Undeniable U; 10-Lauren’s Ladd; 12-Archaeo

This is a grass grab bag for maiden juveniles going long on the lawn.  Anything goes, so we’ll go four-deep and hope to survive and advance.  #12 Archaeo was entered tomorrow as a maiden in a stakes but most likely will start here.  A closing third beaten less than a length in a similar maiden two-turn turfer earlier this month, the son of Arch switches to Bejarano and should be dangerous from off the pace, his poor outside post notwithstanding.  #10 Lauren’s Ladd is bred to improve a ton on grass (City Zip) and flashed some speed in a trouble-filled sprint debut at Santa Anita last month.  Though he wound up seventh of eight in that race, he’s more than likely will improve today and at 12-1 on the morning line with Baze staying aboard for D’Amato he offers considerable long shot value.  #4 Undeniable U was nosed out in a similar turf maiden event at Santa Anita last month in just his second career start and most likely will continue to progress with experience.  Espinoza stays aboard for Baffert.  #2 Silent Movies is a decent colt from the Sadler barn; he was a sharp runner-up over this course and distance three weeks ago and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a pace factor once again. 

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Lymebyrd; 7-Demonslayer; 8-Etailer

This maiden state-bred sprint drew eight entrants, seven of which are making their racing debuts.  #2 Lymbyrd is bred for speed (Limehouse) and has showed enough in the a.m. for Pederson to indicate he’ll be a live item in an unclassified field.  A six furlong gate drill in 1 minute 10 and three-fifths seconds is noteworthy, even over the extremely glib Los Alamitos main track.  #7 Demonslayer has done most of his good work in the morning at Santa Anita and looks fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box for Baltas.  The presence of Bejarano in the saddle is another strong indicator of ability.  #8 Etailer is bred to win early (Square Eddie) and has showed some speed in the a.m. for O’Neill.  With main man Gutierrez aboard, this gelding should come out firing.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Coppa; 3-Riri; 6-Jeremy’s Legacy; 10-Mokat

On paper, this is a very strong race for juvenile fillies over a distance of ground on turf and it will take a good filly to win it.  We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics in what certainly looks like a contentious affair that requires a spread.  #6 Jeremy’s Legacy gained status as a future star with a nearly six length victory in her U.S. debut over this course and distance earlier this month; if the quick turnaround doesn’t have a negative effect on her she can definitely score right back.  Bejarano jumps off to ride #3 Riri, an unbeaten Speightstown filly with wins down the hill at Santa Anita and a good allowance race under these conditions here earlier this month.  She’s a genuine and versatile sort that can be effective at any distance and apparently can cope with any type of pace scenario.  #2 Coppa won her debut for D’Amato with authority while earning a strong number; she has to prove she can duplicate that type of effort around two turns and on grass but we wouldn’t put it past her.  #10 Mokat is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but she romped by more than five lengths two-turning over this course vs. maidens last month and earned a number that gives her a chance right back despite the class hike.  Of the four we’ll give Jeremy’s Legacy a very slight edge and perhaps try her in the straight pool at or around her morning line odds of 9/2.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Toledo Eddie; 8-Storm Comin Thru

#8 Storm Comin Thru seems logical after a solid runner-up try in a similar entry-level state-bred allowance race, but he’s 2-for-16 with six seconds and thirds so he may not be one to trust.  However, Bejarano stays aboard and will have him running on strongly late so we’ll put him on top by default in a somewhat lackluster race for the level.  #2 Toledo Eddie, on the other hand, always has been genuine (first or second in 17 of 36 career starts); however, he’s winless in eight starts this year and seems to have lost some of his tactical zip.  An okay second (beaten almost five lengths) in a hot race last month at Santa Anita, the Dollase-trained gelding might be perking up just a bit and is worth using in rolling exotic play.  These are the two we’ll prefer, but not with much confidence, so if you can afford go a bit deeper by all means do so.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Vigilante; 4-Chiropractor; 5-Om

#5 Om has been beaten just once in four starts (all in top company) on grass and clearly rates top billing in this Grade-1 nine furlong event.  He’ll be the controlling speed again without having to be sent, and proved he could stay nine furlongs when impressively winning the Twilight Derby-G2 at Santa Anita last month.  If you looking for a bit price to include in your exotics, consider #3 Vigilante and #4 Chiropractor.  The former shows up in the D’Amato barn after winning two nice races on turf vs. much lesser foes in the East; he looks to be a high potential type and can really turn it on late.  The latter has rising numbers for Proctor, makes a major switch to Nakatani, will be facing his own age group today, and will be running on strongly in the final furlong.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Dortmund; 7-Imperative

As of this writing #3 Dortmund remains in the field, and reports indicate he's a likely starter and a certain short-priced favorite.  #7 Imperative makes his third start since joining the Baltas barn and we’re expecting improvement from son of Bernardini.  Fourth in the highly-rated Awesome Again S.-G1 in his most recent start and before that a respectable fifth in the Pacific Classic-G1, the late-running gelding seems like a logical exacta partner with Dortmund.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Hunt; 7-What a View; 10-Roy H

#6 Hunt was a tad disappointing when a no-excuse fourth in the Twilight Derby-G2 but returns to the first-level conditioned allowance ranks today and should enjoy this considerably easier task.  Smith stays aboard for D’Amato and will have this Irish-bred rolling when it matters in the final furlong.  #7 What a View likely will inherit a stalker’s trip today and may run a bit better with a target to follow.  After making the running in a similar spot earlier this month, he was tagged right on the line in a race in which Desormeaux appeared to go to sleep in the final 70 yards.  There will be no repeat of such tactics today with the switch to Quinonez.  #10 Roy H stretches out for the first time and with his kind of zip he surely will be the controlling speed.  The son of More Than Ready gets in light, has the pedigree to handle a mile and hails from a barn that has solid sprint-to-route stats.  He’s well worth including somewhere at 12-1 on the morning line.

NOVEMBER 27, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Family Code; 5-Turn Your Eyes

#5 Turn Your Eyes continued his improving pattern with a blowout maiden state-bred romp last month and if the Kafwain colt can produce another forward move he can score right back on the raise.  The pace situation looks fairly comfortable and another positive is the huge break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez.  #1 Family Code is the one to fear most, though the rail post does him no favors.  Third in a state-bred stakes at seven furlongs last month, he faces a softer group today while shortening up in trip and could capture the role as the controlling speed.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with extra tickets using Turn Your Eyes.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Too Fast to Pass; 8-Mr. Sexy; 10-Back to Bako

This grass grab bag has several contenders and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three deep but feel free to include anybody that catches your eye.  #10 Back to Bako is a first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer (27% with this angle) so he’s very likely to improve; he also switches to good bug boy Lopez and has the route-to-sprint maneuver that can produce nice prices.  Effective at any distance and with back numbers that are good enough to beat this field, the son of Aragon is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.  #4 Too Fast to Pass has won three of his last four starts while competing in strong company up north and his form on turf is solid and consistent.  Freshened since early October and working extremely well since for high percentage trainer Wong, this veteran gelding has a good stalking style and should draft into an ideal spot in the second flight, waiting to pounce just behind the speed types.  #8 Mr. Sexy will insure a hot pace and if he can edge clear early he may get brave late.  His career best race came over this course and distance and he really won’t have to improve all that much to regain that type of form. 

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 9-Bolt Up

This lackluster bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares doesn’t have much in it; with the late scratching of logical contender #5 Mackenzies Moment, we’ll reluctantly zero in on #9 Bolt Up.  The Hofmans-trained filly lands the cozy outside post, has competitive figures, and should move forward in her second off a layoff.  We really don’t want to get too involved in, so you can single Bolt Up, spread the race, or simply pass.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 9-Tiz a Kiss; 11-Dreamologist

#9 Tiz a Kiss is winless this year and certainly is overdue.  The Baltas-trained mare has no tactical speed and needs help up front, and with the fractions expected to be legit with the presence of #11 Dreamologist in the field we’re anticipating Bejarano will have her along in time.  Dreamologist set suicidal splits in the Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita and understandably wilted late; if she can slow down just a bit today she’ll take this easier field a very long way.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – the best of the closers and the best of speed – while preferring Tiz a Kiss slightly on top.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Scatchmeifyoucan; 7-Flexible Ethics

We’ll use two in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares but we’ve rated the race a “C’ so we’re not planning on getting too involved.  #7 Flexible Ethics should appreciate the shortened trip; the Mulhall-trained filly is drawn outside the other main speed and figures to get a good pace stalking trip.  #3 Scatchmeifyoucan has only one way to go – on the front end – and always is vulnerable in the final furlong, but if she can clear without pressure she could stick around for a long time in a field that doesn’t have any reliable closers.  Rolling exotic players should go as deep as they can afford to.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Illuminant; 6-My Senses; 7-Miss Boom Boom

This looks like a pretty good field for the level with several possibilities.  #4 Illuminant is stretching out again and clearly is the controlling speed; the daughter of Quality Road has established herself as a turf specialist and ran very well over this course when second in a good maiden special weight miler during the summer meeting.  Most recently she was a clever winner down the hill at Santa Anita with a career top figure and with another forward move today will be tough to catch once again.  #6 My Senses arrives fit and ready from Keeneland for Motion and should draft into a perfect pace-stalking position.  She’s a progressive sort with plenty of room for further improvement.  #7 Miss Boom Boom is a deep closer hoping for a fast pace.  She exits a graded stakes in which she earned a career-top equaling figure, and ran very well when runner-up over this course and distance at this level in her race before last.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez and sports a healthy work tab since raced.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference going to Illuminant.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Old Hollywood; 4-Candy Boss; 5-She’s a Warrior

#5 She’s a Warrior tipped her hand in her debut with excellent runner-up effort last month at Santa Anita and if she can build on that today she should be set to graduate in what appears to be a stronger-than-par maiden special weight extended sprint for juvenile fillies.  She was more than four clear of the rest in that race and has trained well since, so a forward move is likely.  #3 Old Hollywood is a first-timer with excellent drills for Hollendorfer (superior stats with debut runners) and looks cranked up for a huge effort.  With Bejarano taking the mount she’s sure to get plenty of support.  #4 Candy Boss is another newcomer worthy of inclusion.  Sadler is another that excels with first-time starters and this daughter of Candy Ride has done everything right in the morning after bringing $250,000 last spring in the OBS 2-year-old in training sale (where she breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat).  We’ll prefer She’s a Warrior on top due to having a prior outing but all three should be used in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Bal a Bali; 4-Seek Again; 5-Avanzare

#3 Bal a Bali regained his winning form with an excellent performance in a strong allowance race over this course last month and looks more than capable of coming right back in this contentious middle distance turf Grade 2 stakes.  He continues to look exceptional in the morning for Mandella and Bejarano rides him back.  #5 Avanzare beat Bal a Bali on the square in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 in August but could do no better than third when favored in the City of Hope Mile-G2 at Santa Anita in September.  Freshened and looking sharp as tack in the morning in recent weeks, the Proctor-trained gelding should return to top form today and is a “must use” in the exotics.  #4 Seek Again has strung together four straight triple-digit Beyer figures, though he remains winless in 2015 while racing primarily in Grade 1 Company.  His best makes him a contender and should at least land him in the frame.  Let’s prefer Bal a Bali on top while using all three in rolling exotic play.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Passionate Emotion; 8-Riddle Me; 10-Blazeinblairsden

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies make the nightcap a fairly difficult handicapping affair, though if she can avoid trouble from the rail #1 Passionate Emotion seems like a logical top pick.  She’ll appreciate today’s extra half-furlong after running out of room when second as the choice against a similar group a couple of weeks ago.  #8 Riddle Me is an intriguing first-time starter for the Hess-Desormeaux team; she’s trained well enough to be a strong threat against this level of competition and this barn has excellent recent stats with first-time starters.  #10 Blazeinblairsden is another sneaky first-timer that needs to be included; she’s from the Miyadi barn (flat-bet profit with debut runners) and the works aren’t bad.  At the very least she seems better than her 20-1 morning line indicates.