NOVEMBER 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Diablo Caballero; 6-Cool Green

#4 Diablo Caballero and #6 Cool Green meet again and look much the best of the others in this maiden special weight state-bred sprint.  ‘Caballero finished first in a similar event in mid-October but was dq’d for shutting off ‘Green in mid-stretch.  Had ‘Green gotten a clean run, he might have won.  These two are difficult to separate – either one can win today – so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise not getting too involved.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Vanlose Stairway; 4-With a Twist; 8-Intoxicating Move

#8 Intoxicating Move returns to her winning level and returns to her favorite turf course; we’re hoping that she can return to her best form as well.  The Carava-trained mare retains Nakatani and will be tough if she runs back to her highly-rated (and visually very impressive) victory over this course and distance during the summer meeting.  She was overmatched two races back in the Swingtime Stakes and was ineffective sprinting down the hill in her last start.  #4 With a Twist looked good beating a lesser field over this course earlier this month and was re-claimed by Hess, always a positive sign.  She’s back with Desormeaux, who has won with her in the past, and the veteran mare, a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar lawn, has a right to be dangerous once again despite the class hike.  #2 Vanlose Stairway comes off a clever win against a lesser field over this course and earned a speed figure that puts her in the hunt right back.  Gonzalez stays aboard for Spawr.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Intoxicating Move on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Purrin’ Proud; 7-Wise Tale

#7 Wise Tale drops from straight maiden to maiden claiming and will stick much better against this group.  Valdez should have him on or near the lead throughout.  #1 Purrin’ Proud has a series of solid sprints under his belt, draws the rail, and stretches out for the first time.  He has the pedigree to stay a mile and his speed figures are rising rapidly.  The winner should be one of these two and both are worth using in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Bird E House

This mini-marathon turf affair looks completely chaotic and nothing would surprise us.  We’re intrigued by #1 Bird E House and if you’re a small ticket player you should consider embracing this live 8-1 long shot (however, if you can afford to go deeper by all means do so). Bird E House makes a highly favorable jockey change to Desormeaux after finishing a willing fourth in a fairly contentious starter’s allowance event over this course and distance earlier this month.  He looks like the most dangerous of the deep closing types and may have some improvement in him.  He’s won 25% percent of his career starts, shows a win over this course, and from the rail should get an ideal ground-saving trip.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Perfect Set

#1 Perfect Set was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar when second behind #4 Ike Walker in a starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita last month.  The effort was well below his previous excellent Del Mar form, so we’re thinking that he just didn’t care for the track.  He’s back at Del Mar today and we’re going to assume that he’s ready to resume his winning ways following a string of very impressive recent workouts for Hollendorfer.  Garcia stays aboard, knows him well, and should have this Pleasantly Perfect gelding within striking range throughout at this 10-furlong trip.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Collected; 6-Ninety One Assault; 10-Dressed in Hermes

This is a strong race for juvenile turf milers and the three listed above all are highly promising sorts.  A win by any one of the three would not be surprising, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.  #2 Collected showed a ton of quality in graduating at first asking down the hill at Santa Anita; his moderate speed figure really doesn’t do him justice and we’re expecting him to move forward considerably on the stretch-out.  The son of City Zip has a ton of gas, but with #1 Manhattan Dan also in the field (and likely to gun to the lead from the rail), we’re anticipating that Garcia will employ stalking tactics on the Baffert-trained colt.  Based on pedigree the mile should be within his range and at 8-1 on the morning line there’s considerable value available.  #6 Ninety One Assault ran huge in his debut, missing by a nose after rallying wide and finishing eagerly to just miss.  He should benefit greatly from the outing, and the anticipated hot pace plays into his deep closing style.  He’s another 8-1 shot that has to be seriously considered.  #10 Dressed in Hermes didn’t run badly when fifth of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland and before that captured the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita.  His numbers are rising and Smith will have him doing his best work late. 

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Triple Crown; 4-Hard Gale

#4 Hard Gale is a highly-regarded first timer by Hard Spun with a series of very sharp works at San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato.  The barn is quite strong with debut runners and ‘Gale appears cranked up and ready to go.  We’ll put him on top but also use #1 Triple Crown, a fast-working Miller-trained juvenile, also from San Luis Rey Downs.  The rail is a concern but the stable is clever with first-timers and ‘Crown should be fit and ready.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Hard Not to Like; 3-Recepta; 8-Stellar Path; 9-Filimbi

The Matriarch is loaded with possibilities and a spread in rolling exotic play is required.  #1 Hard Not to Like failed to produce her best form when unplaced in the Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita but she’s clearly capable of winning a race like this with her top effort and the fact that Clement sends her west again indicates she’s back on the beam.  Johnny V. flies out to ride her and from the rail should be able to save valuable ground every step of the way.  At 9/2 on the morning line she’s as good as any.  #3 Recepta was out of her element in the B.C. Mile but is properly spotted against this level of competition and the daughter of Speightstown has a strong look off either of her victories in the Del La Rose and Noble Damsel.  She’s reunited with Trujillo and should settle somewhere in mid-pack, ready to pounce.  #8 Stellar Path comes here fresh from a nice score in the Athenia S. at Belmont Park with a career top figure and gives Clement a second strong bullet to fire.  At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth using somewhere.  #9 Filimbi probably will beat this field if she runs back to her close second to Tepin in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day.  She returned in an allowance race earlier this month in New York with a nice win and probably wasn’t cranked to the max, so we’re expecting to see her very best today.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Rim Nick; 8-Trump Diesel; 11-Miner’s Light

#8 Trump Diesel turned in an eye-opening 21 seconds flat breeze at the OBS April sale and then was purchased for $260,000.  A rangy, athletic colt from the first crop of Sidney’s Candy, he’s done some excellent work leading up to this debut for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs and seems plenty fit for a winning effort first crack out of the box under Pedroza.  At 8-1 on the morning line he appears to be offering loads of value in a very deep and contentious affair.  #6 Rim Nick is a hot first timer from the O’Neill barn that looks ready for a major performance in this loaded maiden juvenile extended sprint.  From the first crop of the good sprinter J. P.’s Gusto, he brought $230,000 at the Barretts May Sale after breezing a quarter mile in 21 1/5 seconds.  #11 Miner’s Light is clearly the one to beat after missing in a photo to subsequent graded stakes winner Exaggerator in his only outing during the summer Del Mar meeting in July.  He returns for Gaines with a healthy series of drills, retains Smith, and lands a comfortable outside post.  He’ll enjoy today’s extra furlong and figures to be charging late.