NOVEMBER 28, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Roper; 8-Adair

A good nine-race program begins with a bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint.  #7 Roper already has had 10 chances and clearly isn’t one to trust, but he makes his first start since joining the D’Amato barn and his first since April, so massive improvement is possible.  A repeat of his race before last likely will be good enough to win.  The one to fear most may very well be his uncoupled stablemate, #8 Adair.  The works indicate some ability for a trainer that has excellent stats with debut runners, and at this level a little certainly will go a long way.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Alex Rossi; 4-Tulira Castle

We’ve rated this race a “C” and really don’t have any plans to get involved, as the favorites could dominate without offering any real value. #4 Tulia Castle seeks his fourth win in a row while making his first start for Spawr, but is not being raised by his new connections and clearly has issues (though his recent workouts seem good enough).  If he has one good one left he’ll most likely extend his winning streak but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not much wwe can do with him.  #1 Alex Rossi plummets in class from second level allowance company to $25,000, after finishing a reasonable third while earning a career top speed figure.  This is not a healthy pattern, however, the switch to Bejarano is encouraging.  There are mixed signal here, so it might be best not to get too involved.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Silent Movies; 4-Undeniable U; 10-Lauren’s Ladd; 12-Archaeo

This is a grass grab bag for maiden juveniles going long on the lawn.  Anything goes, so we’ll go four-deep and hope to survive and advance.  #12 Archaeo was entered tomorrow as a maiden in a stakes but most likely will start here.  A closing third beaten less than a length in a similar maiden two-turn turfer earlier this month, the son of Arch switches to Bejarano and should be dangerous from off the pace, his poor outside post notwithstanding.  #10 Lauren’s Ladd is bred to improve a ton on grass (City Zip) and flashed some speed in a trouble-filled sprint debut at Santa Anita last month.  Though he wound up seventh of eight in that race, he’s more than likely will improve today and at 12-1 on the morning line with Baze staying aboard for D’Amato he offers considerable long shot value.  #4 Undeniable U was nosed out in a similar turf maiden event at Santa Anita last month in just his second career start and most likely will continue to progress with experience.  Espinoza stays aboard for Baffert.  #2 Silent Movies is a decent colt from the Sadler barn; he was a sharp runner-up over this course and distance three weeks ago and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a pace factor once again. 

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Lymebyrd; 7-Demonslayer; 8-Etailer

This maiden state-bred sprint drew eight entrants, seven of which are making their racing debuts.  #2 Lymbyrd is bred for speed (Limehouse) and has showed enough in the a.m. for Pederson to indicate he’ll be a live item in an unclassified field.  A six furlong gate drill in 1 minute 10 and three-fifths seconds is noteworthy, even over the extremely glib Los Alamitos main track.  #7 Demonslayer has done most of his good work in the morning at Santa Anita and looks fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box for Baltas.  The presence of Bejarano in the saddle is another strong indicator of ability.  #8 Etailer is bred to win early (Square Eddie) and has showed some speed in the a.m. for O’Neill.  With main man Gutierrez aboard, this gelding should come out firing.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Coppa; 3-Riri; 6-Jeremy’s Legacy; 10-Mokat

On paper, this is a very strong race for juvenile fillies over a distance of ground on turf and it will take a good filly to win it.  We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics in what certainly looks like a contentious affair that requires a spread.  #6 Jeremy’s Legacy gained status as a future star with a nearly six length victory in her U.S. debut over this course and distance earlier this month; if the quick turnaround doesn’t have a negative effect on her she can definitely score right back.  Bejarano jumps off to ride #3 Riri, an unbeaten Speightstown filly with wins down the hill at Santa Anita and a good allowance race under these conditions here earlier this month.  She’s a genuine and versatile sort that can be effective at any distance and apparently can cope with any type of pace scenario.  #2 Coppa won her debut for D’Amato with authority while earning a strong number; she has to prove she can duplicate that type of effort around two turns and on grass but we wouldn’t put it past her.  #10 Mokat is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but she romped by more than five lengths two-turning over this course vs. maidens last month and earned a number that gives her a chance right back despite the class hike.  Of the four we’ll give Jeremy’s Legacy a very slight edge and perhaps try her in the straight pool at or around her morning line odds of 9/2.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Toledo Eddie; 8-Storm Comin Thru

#8 Storm Comin Thru seems logical after a solid runner-up try in a similar entry-level state-bred allowance race, but he’s 2-for-16 with six seconds and thirds so he may not be one to trust.  However, Bejarano stays aboard and will have him running on strongly late so we’ll put him on top by default in a somewhat lackluster race for the level.  #2 Toledo Eddie, on the other hand, always has been genuine (first or second in 17 of 36 career starts); however, he’s winless in eight starts this year and seems to have lost some of his tactical zip.  An okay second (beaten almost five lengths) in a hot race last month at Santa Anita, the Dollase-trained gelding might be perking up just a bit and is worth using in rolling exotic play.  These are the two we’ll prefer, but not with much confidence, so if you can afford go a bit deeper by all means do so.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Vigilante; 4-Chiropractor; 5-Om

#5 Om has been beaten just once in four starts (all in top company) on grass and clearly rates top billing in this Grade-1 nine furlong event.  He’ll be the controlling speed again without having to be sent, and proved he could stay nine furlongs when impressively winning the Twilight Derby-G2 at Santa Anita last month.  If you looking for a bit price to include in your exotics, consider #3 Vigilante and #4 Chiropractor.  The former shows up in the D’Amato barn after winning two nice races on turf vs. much lesser foes in the East; he looks to be a high potential type and can really turn it on late.  The latter has rising numbers for Proctor, makes a major switch to Nakatani, will be facing his own age group today, and will be running on strongly in the final furlong.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Dortmund; 7-Imperative

As of this writing #3 Dortmund remains in the field, and reports indicate he's a likely starter and a certain short-priced favorite.  #7 Imperative makes his third start since joining the Baltas barn and we’re expecting improvement from son of Bernardini.  Fourth in the highly-rated Awesome Again S.-G1 in his most recent start and before that a respectable fifth in the Pacific Classic-G1, the late-running gelding seems like a logical exacta partner with Dortmund.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Hunt; 7-What a View; 10-Roy H

#6 Hunt was a tad disappointing when a no-excuse fourth in the Twilight Derby-G2 but returns to the first-level conditioned allowance ranks today and should enjoy this considerably easier task.  Smith stays aboard for D’Amato and will have this Irish-bred rolling when it matters in the final furlong.  #7 What a View likely will inherit a stalker’s trip today and may run a bit better with a target to follow.  After making the running in a similar spot earlier this month, he was tagged right on the line in a race in which Desormeaux appeared to go to sleep in the final 70 yards.  There will be no repeat of such tactics today with the switch to Quinonez.  #10 Roy H stretches out for the first time and with his kind of zip he surely will be the controlling speed.  The son of More Than Ready gets in light, has the pedigree to handle a mile and hails from a barn that has solid sprint-to-route stats.  He’s well worth including somewhere at 12-1 on the morning line.