NOVEMBER 27, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Family Code; 5-Turn Your Eyes

#5 Turn Your Eyes continued his improving pattern with a blowout maiden state-bred romp last month and if the Kafwain colt can produce another forward move he can score right back on the raise.  The pace situation looks fairly comfortable and another positive is the huge break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez.  #1 Family Code is the one to fear most, though the rail post does him no favors.  Third in a state-bred stakes at seven furlongs last month, he faces a softer group today while shortening up in trip and could capture the role as the controlling speed.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with extra tickets using Turn Your Eyes.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Too Fast to Pass; 8-Mr. Sexy; 10-Back to Bako

This grass grab bag has several contenders and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three deep but feel free to include anybody that catches your eye.  #10 Back to Bako is a first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer (27% with this angle) so he’s very likely to improve; he also switches to good bug boy Lopez and has the route-to-sprint maneuver that can produce nice prices.  Effective at any distance and with back numbers that are good enough to beat this field, the son of Aragon is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.  #4 Too Fast to Pass has won three of his last four starts while competing in strong company up north and his form on turf is solid and consistent.  Freshened since early October and working extremely well since for high percentage trainer Wong, this veteran gelding has a good stalking style and should draft into an ideal spot in the second flight, waiting to pounce just behind the speed types.  #8 Mr. Sexy will insure a hot pace and if he can edge clear early he may get brave late.  His career best race came over this course and distance and he really won’t have to improve all that much to regain that type of form. 

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 9-Bolt Up

This lackluster bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares doesn’t have much in it; with the late scratching of logical contender #5 Mackenzies Moment, we’ll reluctantly zero in on #9 Bolt Up.  The Hofmans-trained filly lands the cozy outside post, has competitive figures, and should move forward in her second off a layoff.  We really don’t want to get too involved in, so you can single Bolt Up, spread the race, or simply pass.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 9-Tiz a Kiss; 11-Dreamologist

#9 Tiz a Kiss is winless this year and certainly is overdue.  The Baltas-trained mare has no tactical speed and needs help up front, and with the fractions expected to be legit with the presence of #11 Dreamologist in the field we’re anticipating Bejarano will have her along in time.  Dreamologist set suicidal splits in the Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita and understandably wilted late; if she can slow down just a bit today she’ll take this easier field a very long way.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – the best of the closers and the best of speed – while preferring Tiz a Kiss slightly on top.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Scatchmeifyoucan; 7-Flexible Ethics

We’ll use two in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares but we’ve rated the race a “C’ so we’re not planning on getting too involved.  #7 Flexible Ethics should appreciate the shortened trip; the Mulhall-trained filly is drawn outside the other main speed and figures to get a good pace stalking trip.  #3 Scatchmeifyoucan has only one way to go – on the front end – and always is vulnerable in the final furlong, but if she can clear without pressure she could stick around for a long time in a field that doesn’t have any reliable closers.  Rolling exotic players should go as deep as they can afford to.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Illuminant; 6-My Senses; 7-Miss Boom Boom

This looks like a pretty good field for the level with several possibilities.  #4 Illuminant is stretching out again and clearly is the controlling speed; the daughter of Quality Road has established herself as a turf specialist and ran very well over this course when second in a good maiden special weight miler during the summer meeting.  Most recently she was a clever winner down the hill at Santa Anita with a career top figure and with another forward move today will be tough to catch once again.  #6 My Senses arrives fit and ready from Keeneland for Motion and should draft into a perfect pace-stalking position.  She’s a progressive sort with plenty of room for further improvement.  #7 Miss Boom Boom is a deep closer hoping for a fast pace.  She exits a graded stakes in which she earned a career-top equaling figure, and ran very well when runner-up over this course and distance at this level in her race before last.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez and sports a healthy work tab since raced.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference going to Illuminant.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Old Hollywood; 4-Candy Boss; 5-She’s a Warrior

#5 She’s a Warrior tipped her hand in her debut with excellent runner-up effort last month at Santa Anita and if she can build on that today she should be set to graduate in what appears to be a stronger-than-par maiden special weight extended sprint for juvenile fillies.  She was more than four clear of the rest in that race and has trained well since, so a forward move is likely.  #3 Old Hollywood is a first-timer with excellent drills for Hollendorfer (superior stats with debut runners) and looks cranked up for a huge effort.  With Bejarano taking the mount she’s sure to get plenty of support.  #4 Candy Boss is another newcomer worthy of inclusion.  Sadler is another that excels with first-time starters and this daughter of Candy Ride has done everything right in the morning after bringing $250,000 last spring in the OBS 2-year-old in training sale (where she breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat).  We’ll prefer She’s a Warrior on top due to having a prior outing but all three should be used in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Bal a Bali; 4-Seek Again; 5-Avanzare

#3 Bal a Bali regained his winning form with an excellent performance in a strong allowance race over this course last month and looks more than capable of coming right back in this contentious middle distance turf Grade 2 stakes.  He continues to look exceptional in the morning for Mandella and Bejarano rides him back.  #5 Avanzare beat Bal a Bali on the square in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 in August but could do no better than third when favored in the City of Hope Mile-G2 at Santa Anita in September.  Freshened and looking sharp as tack in the morning in recent weeks, the Proctor-trained gelding should return to top form today and is a “must use” in the exotics.  #4 Seek Again has strung together four straight triple-digit Beyer figures, though he remains winless in 2015 while racing primarily in Grade 1 Company.  His best makes him a contender and should at least land him in the frame.  Let’s prefer Bal a Bali on top while using all three in rolling exotic play.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Passionate Emotion; 8-Riddle Me; 10-Blazeinblairsden

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies make the nightcap a fairly difficult handicapping affair, though if she can avoid trouble from the rail #1 Passionate Emotion seems like a logical top pick.  She’ll appreciate today’s extra half-furlong after running out of room when second as the choice against a similar group a couple of weeks ago.  #8 Riddle Me is an intriguing first-time starter for the Hess-Desormeaux team; she’s trained well enough to be a strong threat against this level of competition and this barn has excellent recent stats with first-time starters.  #10 Blazeinblairsden is another sneaky first-timer that needs to be included; she’s from the Miyadi barn (flat-bet profit with debut runners) and the works aren’t bad.  At the very least she seems better than her 20-1 morning line indicates.