Jeff Siegel's Elite-8 Breeders' Cup Rankings

Updated October 6, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 - American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 - Beholder (R. Mandella)
3 - Tonalist (C. Clement)

4 - Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

5 - Gleneagles-Ir (A. O’Brien)

6 - Keen Ice (D. Romans)

7 - Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

8 - Smooth Roller (V. Garcia)

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers, American Pharoah remains tops in this division.  In his third workout since that race, the Triple Crown winner worked five furlongs in 59 4/5 seconds at Santa Anita Oct. 3.  Trainer Bob Baffert has decided to train the colt up to the race in California rather than ship to Churchill Downs as originally contemplated. Beholder maintained her edge in what was nothing more than an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta Stakes Sept. 26 at Santa Anita in her final BC prep, winning in a common gallop. She will ship to Keeneland on Oct. 19.  Tonalist was superb winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 over his favorite track (Belmont Park) and surface (wet).  Meanwhile, Honor Code was below his best form when a non-threatening third over that same very wet track in the Kelso S-G2 in his final tuneup; clearly he's very good when things set up well for him, but it's obvious that he's pace dependent.  Smooth Roller joins the list following his highly-rated victory in the Awesome Again S.-G1, though he couldn’t have drawn up a more perfect trip if he tried.  As for any challenges from Europe, Gleneagles-IR is said to be under consideration and really would have everything to gain and nothing to lose by giving it a whirl. The son of Galileo is undefeated this year and the winner of three consecutive Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and most recently the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.  He’s never been farther than a mile and obviously has never raced on dirt, but his dam is a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway and trainer Aidan O’Brien reportedly believes he’ll be suited by the Breeders’ Cup Classic conditions. 

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 - Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)
2 - Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

3 - Dortmund (B. Baffert)

4 - Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

5 - Red Vine (C. Clement)

6 - Valid (M. Vitali)

7 - Bradester (E. Kenneally)

8 - Iron Fist (J. Hollendorfer)

ANALYSIS – Liam’s Map could be superior under these conditions but his connections also are strongly considering the Classic.  He'll be pre-entered in both.  His win in the Woodward S.-G1 was outstanding, but nine furlongs isn't a mile and one-quarter for this need-the-lead speedster, especially against this level of competition.  He'd be better off in the BC Mile, where he'll sure be favored.  Another front-running type, Appealing Tale, took the Kelso H.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion over a very wet track that he clearly enjoyed.  His connections are hoping/praying that Liam's Map opts for the Classic. We still have listed Private Zone in the sprint division but his connections will strongly consider this race if Liam's Map isn't in it.  Dortmund, unraced since the Preakness, has had six workouts since Aug. 24; however, he’s no sure thing to run in this, or any other Breeders’ Cup race, with the Clark H.-G1 at Churchill Downs Nov. 27 the long term goal.  Wicked Strong was an admirable runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 behind Tonalist; a mile might not be his best trip but he'll fit much better against this level of competition so we suspect his connections will pass the Classic and opt for the Mile.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 - Golden Horn-GB (J. Gosden)

2 - Flintshire-GB (A. Fabre)

3 - Free Eagle-IR (D. Weld)
4 - The Grey Gatsby (K. Ryan)

5 - Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

6 - The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

7 - Big John B (P. D’Amato)

8 - Twilight Eclipse (T. Albertrani)

ANALYSIS – Golden Horn-GB regained his top class form with a victory in the Irish Championship S.-G1 and then followed that victory with a convincing score in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1 on Sunday.  The BC Turf remains under strong consideration; British bookmakers now are listing the John Gosden-trained colt at 4/5 for the BC Turf.  His owner was quoted as saying "Golden Horn came out of the race amazingly well."  Flintshire-GB toyed with the best North American-based runners in the Sword Dancer S.-G1 and then lost little when an excellent second to Golden Horn in the Arc. There's every expectation that he'll return to the States, setting up a potential rematch with the Arc winner. Free Eagle-IR, a badly hampered third behind Golden Horn at Leopardstown, finished sixth, beaten four lengths, in the Arc; his connections were somewhat disappointed in the outcome (blaming, in part, a slow pace) and a trip to Keeneland is an option being considered. Although winless in 2015, The Grey Gatsby has placed in four high class Group-1 races in England this year and his connections are looking forward to trying him over a mile and one half.  Big Blue Kitten may be the best of the American contingent following his course record-setting victory in the Hirsch S.-G1 but the Euro’s remain in a different league and could easily dominate the race depending who and how many are sent over.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 - Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 - Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 - Rock Fall (T. Pletcher)

4 - Work All Week (R. Brueggeman)

5 - Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)

6 - Wild Dude (J. Hollendorfer)

7 - Big Macher (R. Baltas)
8 - Barbados (M. Tomlinson)

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego S.-G1 with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  His connections know the pace scenario in the BC Sprint will be considerably more intense, which is why they’re looking at the BC Mile as a viable alternative.   The decision might not come until entry time.  We suspect that if Liam’s Map opts for the Mile, ‘Zone will run in the Sprint, but if ‘Map runs in the Classic, ‘Zone’s people will find the Mile (which will present a short stretch with the finish line at the 1/16 pole) a better option.   Runhappy remained unbeaten in sprint races with a highly impressive wet-track victory in the Phoenix S.-G3 at Keeneland. Barbados, BC Sprint champion Work All Week, and Holy Boss followed him home.  It’s hard to find fault with a seven race winning streak and Rock Fall did what he had to do in the Vosburgh-G1.  However, he was fully-extended with a perfect trip in a race that saw four horses within a length of each other at the wire, and while the number was good, we’ve always believed that Beyer figures in New York sprint races tend to be inflated.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 - Esoterique-IR (A. Fabre)

2 - Muhaarar-GB (C. Hills)                       

3 - Karakontie-JP (J. Pease)
4 - Make Believe-GB (A. Fabre)

5 - Mondialiste-IR (D. O’Meara)

6 - Obviously-IR (P. D’Amato)
7 - Tepin (M. Casse)

8 - Grand Arch (B. Lynch)

ANALYSIS – Esoterique-IR won a “win and you’re in” race in France last month and then was thoroughly convincing taking the Sun Chariot S.-G1 at Newmarket on the first Saturday in October.  At age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre.  Muhaarar-GB has been a high class sprinter this year – he’s won three straight Group-1 stakes at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Deauville, respectively – but trainer Charles Hills believes the son of Oasis Dream would be ideally suited by the extra ground offered by the BC Mile at Keeneland. He'll first run in the Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot Oct. 17 and then, as Hills put it, "well take it from there." Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie-JP, a close third in the Prix du Moulin-G1 at Longchamp in just his second start this year, is rounding to top form while Make Believe-GB won the Prix de la Foret-G1 at Longchamp and captured the French 2000 Guineas-G1 earlier this year. Mondialiste-IR got his ticket paid for with his victory in the Woodbine Mile-G1, while Obviously-IR, in his first start of the year, finished an excellent third at Woodbine in race that should do him wonders.  Tepin, extremely impressive winning the First Lady S.-G1, shows up on this list because her connections believe she is best suited for a mile rather than the mile and three-sixteenths distance of the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 - Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 - Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)
3 - Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

4 - Untapable (S. Asmussen)

5 - Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

6 - Yahilwa (J. Hollendorfer)

7 - Stellar Wind (J. Sadler)
8 - I'm a Chatterbox (L. Jones)

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast has won eight of 12 in including a romp in the Beldame S.-G1.  With Beholder opting for the Classic, the daughter of Street Sense should inherit the favorite’s role.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  Got Lucky rises in the rankings following her determined win in the Spinster S.-G1 at Keeneland over Untapable, Yahilwa, and Frivolous.  The three year old fillies are good, not great, with Stellar Wind, I’m a Chatterbox and Curalina needing to raise their game just a bit to be a serious threat vs. the older mares.   

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 - Legatissimo-IR (D. Wachman)

2 - Dacita-CH (C. Brown)

3 - Secret Gesture-GB (R. Beckett)

4 - Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

5 - Watsdachances (C. Brown)

6 - Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)
7 - Curvy (D. Wachman)
8 - Photo Call-IR (G. Motion)

ANALYSIS – Legatissimo-IR has won back-to-back Group-1 races, the Nassau S. at Goodwood and the Matron S. at Leopardstown, and according to trainer David Wachman is ticketed for the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Dacita-CH, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa S.-G2 while verifying her superior Chilean form. Secret Gesture, disqualified from first in the Beverly D Stakes, was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and would seem like a logical starter in the race again in 2015.  Stephanie's Kitten got back on track with a win in the Flower Bowl S.-G1 over a soft turf course.  We're expecting to learn in the new few days which Europeans-based runners will be considered; the Jim Bolger-trained Pleascach, for example, would be as strong fit here if she's sent over. 

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 - Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)                

2 - Stonetastic (K. Breen)
3 - Ben's Duchess (J. Sadler)
4 - Taris (J. Sadler)

5 - Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)                             

6 - La Verdad (L. Rice)

8 - Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher)

8 - Uzziel (K. Desormeaux)

ANALYSIS – Cavorting has the closing style that appears ideally suited for this seven furlong trip and continues to improve with each race. Stonetastic looked like her old self in a confidence-building runaway win vs. overmatched allowance foes at Parx while earning a 109 Beyer figure.  Ben's Duchess is an improving prototype late-running sprinter with a wicked turn of foot.  Her deep-closing score in the L.A. Woman - at the expense of odds-on Taris - was legit and earned a triple-digit Beyer.  Taris finished a disappointing third in that race after being caught four-wide battling on a torrid pace.  She had been trained lightly since her victory in the Rancho Bernardo and ran like she needed the race badly.  La Verdad won the Gallant Bloom S.-G2 in typically game fashion but the BC trip of seven furlongs is stretching her limit. 

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 - Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 - Ready for Rye (T. Albertrani)

3 - Undrafted (W. Ward)

4 - Ageless (A. Delacour)
5 - No Silent (G. Mandella)

6 - Pure Sensation (C. Clement)
7 - Mongolian Saturday (E. Ganbat)                     

8 - Amelia's Wild Ride (R. Preciado)

ANALYSIS – Lady Shipman, a perfect seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs (this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint is carded at five and one-half furlongs), will prep for the race Friday at Keeneland in the Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.  She’s very fast on speed figures and can win on the lead or from a stalking spot.  Ready for Rye cruised in the off-the-turf Allied Forces S.in the mud at Belmont for his third straight win last week and probably is even more effective on turf.   We have not included any Europeans on this list, though Undrafted did invade Royal Ascot in June to win the Group-1 Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, who will be reunited with the Wesley Ward-trained colt for this race. Amelia's Wild Ride, winner  of the off-the-turf Woodford S., is under consideration but needs to be supplemented.  Bobby's Kitten, far below form in two 2015 starts, will defend his BC Sprint title, according to trainer Chad Brown.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 - Brody's Cause (D. Romans)
2 - Greenpointcrusader (D. Schettino)
3 - Nyquist (D. O'Neill)

4 - Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)

5 - Sudden Surprise (T. Pletcher)

6 - Swipe (K. Desormeaux)
7 - Riker (N. Gonzalez)

8 - Ralis (D. O'Neill)

ANALYSIS – Brody's Cause is a rapidly progressing colt and produced an impressive late kick to win the Breeders' Futurity-G1 over the same course and distance of the BC Juvenile. The victory came on the heels of a smart recent maiden win at Churchill Downs and with his pedigree and true route style the son of Giant's Causeway looks like the one to beat. Greenpointcrusader was outstanding when winning the Champagne S.-G1 while earning a legitimate number.  The wet track makes it difficult to truly gauge his performance but we sure liked what we saw.  Nyquist is undefeated in four starts including victories in two Grade One events – the Del Mar Futurity and the FrontRunner S. – but he’s not fast on speed figures and probably hasn't been beating all that much on the West Coast. Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special S.-G2 but was no match for Brody's Cause in the Breeders' Futurity, failing to match strides with that colt in the final furlong after hitting the front entering the lane. He may have been a tad short for the race, or perhaps he's better around one turn.  Riker is undefeated in Canada - he won the Grey S.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion while setting easy splits - and will get tested against the big boys at Keeneland. Ralis was a smart winner of the Hopeful S.-G1 but the race's form hasn't held up and he was up the track in the Champagne over an off track that his connections are hoping he didn't care for.  

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 - Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

2 - Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

3 - Tap to It (R. Nicks)
4 - Nickname (S. Asmussen)
5 - Nemoralia (J. Noseda)

6 - Land over Sea (D. O’Neill)
7 - Gomo (D. O'Neill)
8 - Gamble's Ghost (J. Carroll)

ANALYSIS – The victory by Songbird in the Chandelier S.-G1 vaults her to the number one spot in our rankings but the margin is thin over Rachel’s Valentina.  The difference is that the Hollendorfer-trained filly has proven winning form around and her number was strong. Rachel’s Valentina’s victory the Spinaway S.-G1 gave the impression that she'll handle a route of ground as well and she'll get her chance to prove it on Breeders' Cup day.  Both are superior fillies.  Tap to It performed gallantly when second in the Spinaway - the quick turnaround from her maiden win did her no favors - and is another that will appreciate two-turns.  Nickname and English invader Nemoralia finished one-two in the Frizette-G1 but the very wet track that makes the result hard to trust. Land over Sea, third in the Debutante behind Songbird and then second to her again in the Chandelier, might actually be better on turf but reportedly this is where she’ll run along with stablemate Gomo, who splashed to victory in a very weak renewal of the Alicibiades S.-G1. 

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

1 - Airoforce (M. Casse)

2 - Conquest Daddyo (M. Casse)
3 - Camelot Kitten (C. Brown)
4 - Hollywood Don (P. Miller)

5 - Isotherm (G. Weaver)

6 - Ray’s the Bar (C. Brown)

7 - Azar (T. Pletcher)

8 - Sky Marshal (B. Minshall)

ANALYSIS – We have no current European-based runners listed but you know they're coming.  When confirmations begin to trickle in we'll include them in our rankings. The major yards (O’Brien, Gosden, et al) probably have a dozen or more to choose from.  As for the North American-based runners, trainer Mark Casse is sitting pretty with a pair of excellent prospects.  Aeroforce improved his record to two-for-two with a smart score in the Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland and has the best resume of the locals. Conquest Daddyo is a Scat Daddy colt that won his turf debut in the Summer S.-G2 at Woodbine and has plenty of room for upside.  Camelot Kitten, a full-brother to Bobby's Kitten, was a strong closing second behind Aeroforce and with another forward move will be very dangerous on Breeders' Cup day. Hollywood Don has won twice going long on turf, a maiden at Del Mar (on the lead) and then the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. (off the pace) while earning strong figures in both.  His third place effort behind Nyquist in his first try on dirt in the FrontRunner S,-G1 was not very inspiring so the son of Tapit will go back to turf.  Isotherm was an upset winner of the Pilgrim S.-G3; however, the entire field finish in a heap so it may not have been much of a race.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 - Catch a Glimpse (M. Casse)

2 - Harmonize (W. Mott)

3 - Tin Type Gal (G. Motion)

4 - Jakaby Jade (D. O’Neill)
5 - Last Waltz-IR (C. Brown

6 - Thrilled (T. Pletcher)

7 - One Last Shot (B. Baffert)

8 - Llanita-GB (C. Brown)

ANALYSIS – Catch a Glimpse appears to be another in a very long list of City Zip fillies that excel on turf.  Her runaway win in the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine stamps her as the leading North American-based filly in this division over the sharp P.G. Johnson S. winner Harmonize.  Tin Type Gal is unbeaten in two starts following her workmanlike victory in the Miss Grillo S.-G3 over Thrilled.  Jakaby Jade arrived from Europe with nothing more than a five furlong maiden win at Lingfield and promptly won the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf in good style.  Last Waltz-IR, a close third in a recent Group-3 in Ireland, has been purchased privately and will join the Chad Brown barn as a probable starter.

SEPTEMBER 27, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $36 investment

1st race: 1, 3, 6

2nd race: 6

3rd race: 3, 5, 7

4th race: 3, 4

5th race: 1, 5, 7, 9

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Roo’s Valentine; 3-Hurricane Callie; 6-Reckless Charm

State-bred maiden juvenile fillies meet over six and one-half furlongs in the opener with four of the six entrants exiting the same race.  #3 Hurricane Callie was second in that event Sept. 2 at Del Mar – she pressed the pace throughout and battled gamely to the wire to be beaten a neck – and with another forward move today the daughter of Comic Strip could earn her diploma.  #6 Reckless Charm, a fading fifth in that race but with back numbers that could win, lands the comfortable outside post and should draft into a soft, pace prompting spot.  #1 Roo’s Valentine, a strong third (beaten a half-length) in that same event in her debut, should move forward today but is stuck on the rail.  We expect the winner to be one of these three but have no real feel for the race so we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Formally Wild

The second race is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer that appears made to order for #6 Formally Wild.  A beaten choice for $16,000 in his first start since joining the Hollendorfer barn, the lightly-raced gelding drops a notch for the money run and should be the controlling speed in a sprint that doesn’t have a whole lot of zip signed on.  A smooth recent half mile workout over this track five days ago should have him on edge and Gonzalez stays aboard.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Pat the Bear; 5-A Colt Following; 7-Justonemorething

A $20,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds carded as the third race looks like a spread with nothing, really, to trust.  #3 Pat the Bear is dropping off a claim – never a good sign – and goes from Miller to Sherlock, so despite back form that makes him the one to beat, the once-speedy gelding may have seen better days.  #5 A Colt Following has won half of his four career starts over the Santa Anita main track but is another class dropper with an unhealthy pattern following a couple of dull efforts vs. much tougher.  Maybe the softer company with wake him up.  #7 Justonemorething earned a career top figure when rallying from far back to beat a slightly softer group at Del Mar; he’s in good form but his deep closing style might not be as effective here as it was down south.  The winner likely will be one of these three but this is a race that might be best left alone.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Mor Spirit; 4-Beaumarchais

The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race, a maiden special weight extended sprint with three of the entrants first-time starters from the Baffert barn.  The best of the trio is #3 Mor Spirit, a $650,000 2-year-old in training purchase last March with a series of sharp local works to his credit.  The son of Eskendereya looks fit and ready for a big effort first crack out of the box.   #4 Beaumarchais was bet like he couldn’t lose (3/5) in his debut but wound fifth, beaten more than 20 lengths.  He has to be better than that and Smith stays aboard for Callaghan so we’ll give the son of Big Drama one more chance.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (2:32 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Buymeabond; 5-Husband’s Folly; 7-Back to Bako; 9-Horizonatalyspeakin

The fifth race is a typical grass grab bag for $40,000 claiming milers; we suggest you use as many as you can afford to.  #5 Husband’s Folly is solid at this level and switches to Bejarano so he may deserve top billing, though he’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win.  #1 Buymeabond, claimed back by Carava and retaining Nakatani, should enjoy a good ground-saving trip from the rail and has won a third of his 27 career starts.  This is a tougher group that he’s used to facing, though.  #9 Horizontalyspeakin won at this level at this distance at Del Mar last month while changing tactics – he was taken back and allowed to produce a late run rather than bust off to the early lead as usual – and if similar tactics are employed he could easily score right back.  #7 Back to Bako has finished off the board in races won by Husband’s Folly and Horizontalyspeakin recently but he’s always liked this turf course and has back form that makes him a price threat. 

SIXTH RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Ashleyluvssugar

  

#1 Ashleyluvssugar should outclass his rivals in the sixth race, the King Pellinore S. at 10 furlongs on turf.  Though beaten as the favorite in the Del Mar H.-G2 in his most recent start, the Game Plan gelding ran a winning race in defeat and today tries a much easier group while returning to his favorite turf course.  We’re expecting Stevens to have him along in plenty of time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Skelton Pass

The seventh race is a first-level allowance main track sprint that should be won by #4 Skelton Pass.  A runaway winner from maidens at Del Mar in his first start since joining the Sadler barn, the Temple City gelding earned a tremendous speed figure, one that if repeated will be more than good enough for as repeat score.  He’s a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.

EIGHTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Twentytwentyvision; 6-Talco; 7-Avanzare; 9-Alert Bay

The featured City of Hope Mile-G2 occupies the featured eighth race slot and has several legitimate contenders.  We’ll go four deep while preferring #7 Avanzare on top.  A winner of seven of 13 career starts including a career-top score from a poor outside draw in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 in his most recent start, the Grand Reward gelding is thoroughly genuine and consistent and should fire another big shot today.  #6 Talco, an excellent second to Avanzare in that same race when missing by a half-length, retains Bejarano and will be rolling late.  #5 Twentytwentyvision continues to improve with racing and gets his toughest test, but could easily be up to it.  #9 Alert Bay, an impressive listed stakes winner at Golden Gate Fields earlier this month, must overcome the outside post but has won three of four over this course, nine of 18 lifetime, and must be respected. 

NINTH RACE (4:43 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Sugar Buzz; 6-Afleet Domination; 7-Palamon

The nightcap is a maiden claiming miler for juveniles in a race filled with class droppers and sprint-to-route runners.  #4 Sugar Buzz, fourth of 10 in his debut, was claimed by O’Neill out of that race and seems likely to improve with that effort behind and the added distance.  He looks like a very live item with the switch to Bejarano.  #6 Afleet Domination exits a pair of straight maiden races, didn’t run badly in either outing, and should fit much better at this level.  #7 Palamon has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for Miyadi (superior stats with this angle) and has speed figures that are going in the right direction.  With another forward move today, the son of Ghostzapper will be right there.  We’ll try to get by using just these three while preferring Sugar Buzz on top.

SEPTEMBER 26, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $60 investment

1st race: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8

2nd race: 2, 6

3rd race: 1, 2

4th race: 1, 8, 9

5th race: 4, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Pass – No Play

The Santa Anita Autumn season presents 19 programs that includes a superior opening day card.   Several critical Breeders’ Cup prep events are featured today along with a number of excellent rolling exotic wagering opportunities during the 11-race offering. 

The program actually starts off slowly with an inscrutable $50,000 maiden claiming sprint for state-bred two-year-olds.”  #7 Redneck Crazy will be the favorite after earning a better-than-par figure when third against open (non-Calbred) company last time out; however, the Sherlock-trained colt lacks the kind of early zip you’d prefer to see on this main track and probably offers little in the way of value.  #8 Sorcerer’s Wildcat exits the same race and finished four lengths behind ‘Crazy; he has more early zip and perhaps a bit more upside than ‘Crazy but didn’t change leads and wasn’t visually impressive in that effort so he’ll be hard to back with confidence.  Clever trainer Miyadi sends out a couple of slow-working first time starters in #5 Prairie Pizazz and #6 Hopelessly in Love but since most maidens from this barn run a bit better than they work you have to give them at least a cursory glance.  #2 Little Mustard lumbered home third in a modest affair at Los Alamitos two weeks ago but may have a bit more room for improvement then some of the others.  Rolling exotic players should spread, spread spread.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-C. C. Zipp; 6-Sudden Fame

The second race is a potentially decent straight maiden sprint for juvenile fillies.  #6 Sudden Fame has been burning up the track in the a.m. for Mandella (just fair with debut runners), could be a good one, and must be used.  The daughter of Congrats was a $275,000 yearling so you know she’s a looker.  #2 C. C. Zipp isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but she continues to improve steadily with experience and will likely produce another forward move today.   These are the two we’ll prefer with Sudden Fame given a slight edge on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Desert Steel; 2-Curlin’s Fox

The first added money event of the program, the $70,000 Unzip Me Stakes down the hill for sophomore fillies, came up unusually strong, with #2 Curlin’s Fox and #1 Desert Steel faster than par for this level and both are razor sharp and improving.  Curlin’s Fox is a course specialist coming off a career top score in the Sandy Blue S. at Del Mar and she continues to impress in the morning for Gaines.  Desert Steel has found her niche as a turf sprinter and couldn’t have been more impressive in a pair of scintillating victories over the Del Mar lawn against older foes.  She’s failed to hit the board in two prior starts down this hillside course but she’s a whole lot better now than she was then.  ‘Fox gets the edge on top because of here proven form down the hill, but we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Kenjisstorm; 8-Swiss Cheese; 9-Hot Lightning

The fourth race is a starter’s allowance sprint for $40,000 non-winners of two and seems like a logical spot for #8 Swiss Cheese.  A very impressive bottom-rung maiden claiming winner two runs back (and claimed out of that race), the son of Swiss Yodeler finished second in a similar starter’s race at Del Mar in his next outing in what was a fast, highly-rated affair.  This event doesn’t look as strong, so if he maintains his form the Miyadi-trained gelding will be hard to beat.  #1 Kenjisstorm was badly overmatched in the Pirate’s Bounty S. last time out but his maiden claiming win over this track and distance last April charts very well with these and this will be his first start with blinkers.  He could be the controlling speed if he leaves cleanly form the rail.  #9 Hot Lightning, a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt class dropper for Belvoir, lands the cozy outside post, retains Talamo, and has a prior win over this main track.  He should at least hit the board.

FIFTH RACE (2:32 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Nyquist; 8-Mt. Veeder

Last year’s FrontRunner Stakes was won by American Pharoah.  Not sure there’s anything in here quite that good, but certainly #4 Nyquist looks 3/5 on paper as the unbeaten son of Uncle Mo tries two turns for the first time.  There’s no reason he won’t handle the increase in trip and his numbers, while not off the charts, are legitimate.  #8 Mt Veeder may be the controlling speed and the son of Ghostzapper gives every indication that he’ll continue to improve with distance and experience.  He has upside that most of the others don’t, so if you’re looking to try to beat the favorite or at least save with a bit of a price, this Baffert-trained colt fits the bill. 

SIXTH RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Native Treasure; 4-Mal Verde; 6-Hawkedon; 13-Chips All In

The Pick-6 begins with the sixth race, a highly competitive slalom event that requires a spread.  Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play.  If he’s lucky enough to draw in from the also-eligible list, #13 Chips All In should be a major player.  A genuine and versatile veteran with a particular fondness for this turf course, the son of North Light was several lengths the best when third after an impossible start and a wide trip against a similar group over a mile at Del Mar last time out.  He’s trained well since for Brocklebank, retains Quinonez, and, assuming he starts, should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot outside.  A strong case can be made for several of the others, including #3 Mal Verde, tough at any distance and a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course; #6 Hawkedon, getting his favorite course and trip after a two month freshening for a barn that has excellent stats with this angle; and #2 Native Treasure, a strong fit off his runner-up effort at this level two runs back.

SEVENTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Beholder

Today’s rolling exotic free bingo space, #9 Beholder, will be 1/5 at post time in the seventh race, the Zenyatta Stakes, as the brilliant daughter of Henny Hughes preps for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in what should be a stroll in the park vs. a group of good, but hopelessly overmatched older fillies and mares.  Enjoy the show; there are still some excellent wagering opportunities later in the card.

EIGHTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Songbird

#5 Songbird figures to be another very short priced favorite – maybe not 1/5 but close – in the eighth race, the Chandelier Stakes, for juvenile fillies.  Unbeaten in two starts including the Del Mar Debutante by more than five widening lengths, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should have no issues with two turns, and with the scratching of #1 Pretty N Cool looks likely to control this race from gate to wire.  #7 Land Over Sea seems like the second filly in the field, but the exacta to her won’t pay anything, so let’s just single the Hollendorfer filly and move on.

NINTH RACE (4:43 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Lady Pimpernel; 8-Hard Not to Like; 11-Fanticola

The ninth race, the Rodeo Drive Stakes over 10 furlongs on turf for older fillies and mares, is decidedly more changing than the previous two races on the card and requires a bit of a spread.  #11 Fanticola doesn’t really want to run this far but in a “lone f” situation – such as the one she’s likely to enjoy today – the D’Amato-trained mare could be very difficult to get by, just as she was when missing by a nose over this course and distance in the Santa Barbara ‘Cap in April.  #8 Hard Not to Like, a winner of back-to-back Grade-1 races including Gamely here in May and the Diana at Saratoga in July, returns to the West Coast for the high-percentage Clement stable and gives every indication that she’s fit and ready for a typically top effort.  In what projects to be a slowly-run race early on, Espinoza should have this daughter of Hard Spun close up throughout, ready to pounce.  #2 Lady Pimpernel, a closing third in the Yellow Ribbon S.-G2 at Del Mar earlier this month in her first start since January, figures to be fitter and tougher today and will appreciate the longer trip as well.  She won the Grade 2 Frankel S. on this course last winter and though unproven at this level could be the most dangerous of the deep closing types.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – Lady Pimpernel intrigues us the most - but if you feel the need to go a deeper, go right ahead.

TENTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: A-

Use: 7-Smooth Roller; 8-Bayern

The Awesome Again Stakes is carded as the 10^th race on the program; last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner #8 Bayern couldn’t have dialed up a more favorable pace scenario and should have every chance to show his connections that he still has some competitive spirit left.  Run into the ground by Beholder in the Pacific Classic last time out, the son of Offlee Wild has looked like his old self of late in the morning and it should be noted that this will be his first start over the Santa Anita main track – clearly his preferred surface – since his controversial gate-to-wire victory on Breeders’ Cup day last November.  If he can’t win under these conditions – or at least run very well – it may be time to call it a career.  The one to fear most is a gelding that has never won, or even placed, in a stakes race.  #7 Smooth Roller won his first two starts like a future star but then was very fractious in the gate, stumbled at the start, and was forced to race wide throughout while many, many lengths the best when fourth in the Brubaker S. at Del Mar in his most recent outing.  He’s fast on numbers with a massive ceiling, and if he can negotiate a good trip he’ll be the one that Bayern, and everybody else, will most have to worry about.  We suggest you take his morning line odds of 6-1 if you can get it.

ELEVENTH RACE (5:45 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Lucky Bryan; 9-Canada

The finale offers a good long shot chance in a wide open, completely unclassified maiden juvenile turf router.  #2 Lucky Bryan is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and offers good value at that number.  The Barba-trained colt was given a good experience in his sprint debut – he wasn’t rushed early and then found his best stride late before galloping out strongly – in a fast, highly-rated abbreviated sprint at Del Mar.  Today he stretches out to a much more suitable distance while switching to the surface he’s bred to handle, and from where he’s drawn the son of Lookin At Lucky should find himself in a good mid-pack position, saving ground, ready to do his thing from the quarter pole to the wire.  Iggy got to know this colt last time out and stays aboard.  #9 Canada was a non-threatening fifth in a highly-rated, productive maiden turf event at Del Mar and seems very likely to move forward off that race for Callaghan.  He switches to Stevens, has progressed nicely in the morning, and remains fairly well regarded.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.