SEPTEMBER 2, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $54 investment

1st race: 1, 4

2nd race: 2, 7, 9

3rd race: 6, 8

4th race: 2, 5, 6

5th race: 2, 6, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Cadet Roni; 4-Fast Magoo

#1 Cadet Roni dropped into a claimer, shortened from a route to a sprint, added blinkers for the first time, and switched from turf to dirt in her most  recent outing and the result was a strong win with a career top speed figure.  She returns for the Glatt/Pratt combo and really won’t have to improve much at all to score right back in this starter’s allowance event. The main concern is the rail post.   #4 Fast Magoo has chased considerably tougher foes in her last pair and seems sure to improve a bunch at this level.  She’s strong in the speed figure department and looks like the most dangerous of the speed types.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Cadet Roni the edge on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Reckless Charm; 7-Forthenineteen; 9-Roo’s Valentine

#7 Forthenineteen was a beaten choice in her debut after a slow start in a tough race that already has produced a stakes winner; we’ll give her another chance following a very sharp recent work.  Prat stays aboard for Cecil and with blinkers being added today, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit should have every chance to show her best stuff.  #2 Reckless Charm was overmatched in a recent stakes race but returns to reality today and a repeat of her race before last puts right in the thick of things.  Three nice workouts since her last outing should have this Cassidy-trained filly right on edge.  #9 Roo’s Valentine is a first-time starter from a barn that rarely wins with debut runners but she’s trained well enough to warrant consideration, and at 6-1 on the morning line she’s probably is worth using on a ticket or two.  Forthenineteen gets top billing but all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Sizzlin’ Joe; 8-Infinite Magic

This $32,000 claimer is restricted to horses that have not won a race in 2015 and doesn’t have a whole lot of depth to it.  #6 Sizzlin’ Joe is zero-for-seven this year but has hit the board in every start and has earned consistently good speed figures.  He’s due to break through and seems to have found the proper spot for Hollendorfer.  #8 Infinite Magic shows up in a claimer for the first time, switches to Stevens, and has a huge look off his strong effort in Kentucky two runs back.  This drop in class almost certainly will wake him up.  Let’s try to survive using just these two in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Emmy and I; 5-Easy Grader; 6-Top Notch

This is an intriguing maiden special weight sprint for state-bred juvenile fillies; it’s actually a split of the second race and seems like the stronger half.  #5 Easy Grader is bred to win early (Tribal Rule) and has done everything right in the morning for Truman.  She looks fit and ready for barn whose first-timers often run better than they work.  #2 Emmy and I, a daughter of Heatseeker from the Yakteen stable, has looked decent in a series of drills and seems plenty fit for a good effort first crack out of the box.  At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.”  #6 Top Notch, another promising newcomer, has worked a little better than her modest final times would indicate and Bonde can be clever at times with his maidens.  Toss her in at 10-1 on the morning.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Easy Grader.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Single: 2-Power of Nine; 6-Sugar Spice; 7-Best in Class

This bottom-rung claiming sprint for fillies and mares looks fairly wide open; we’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  #6 Sugar Spice may be the best of the speed types and won easily at this level two runs back at Santa Anita.  A decent runner-up for $12,500 last time out, she returns to her winning level today and will be tough if she can maintain her good form.  Gonzalez takes over for Pedroza, who had ridden her to two wins in her last four starts.  #7 Best in Class didn’t beat a strong field last time out but she did it the right way and returns at the same level for Kitchingman.  Pedroza shows up here rather than on Sugar Spice, for whatever that’s worth.  #2 Power of Nine is a genuine and consistent mare for a cheap sort and should fire a good shot today.  She can finish a little bit and Gryder got to know her last time. 

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 7-Dominic’s Way; 8-Tribal Roar; 9-Sunny Truce

The known element in this maiden claiming juvenile sprint doesn’t inspire so let’s try a fresh face on top.  #7 Dominic’s Way has shown some talent in the morning for Baltas and looks like a very live item in a soft spot.  The son of Tizway was given a strong foundation at San Luis Rey Downs and has impressed in a couple of Del Mar works.  He’s worth a play if you can get close to his morning line of 4-1.  #9 Sunny Truce also has trained better than your typical maiden claimer and the Hess/Desormeaux team always has to be respected.  The son of Sundarban should fit very nicely at this level.  #8 Tribal Roar was a beaten choice in a similar spot last month but stumbled badly at the start and probably lost his best chance.  He’s trained well since that race and may deserve one more look. 

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Over Par; 3-Temple Keys; 8-Freddies Dream

#3 Temple Keys seems as good any in this state-bred first-level allowance turf router and with good racing luck may be able to tag the speed.  He gets an extra half-furlong to work with today and if he can negotiate a decent trip the Temple City colt can win a race like this.  #2 Over Par earned a career top speed figure when breaking his maiden over this course earlier in the meeting but was overmatched in the La Jolla Handicap in his next start.  Back where he belongs today, the son O’Neill-trained colt lands a good inside post and should draft into a mid-pack, ground-saving position.  Off his best race he’s a solid fit.  #8 Freddies Dream has room to improve for Puype and continues to impress in the morning.  He’s another who will appreciate the nine furlong journey and Gonzalez should have him rolling late.  All three should be included in your rolling exotics with the edge on top going to Temple Keys.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Savings Account; 10-Honey Ride

#10 Honey Ride needs a patient ride but didn’t get it when battling with Beholder on the lead in the recent Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and understandably faded out of the picture.  Today, against overnight Stakes Company, she can rebound with a top effort if taken back from her extreme outside post position and allowed to produce the last run.  She’s reunited with Baze, who rides her best, and she continues to look quite sharp in the morning for Sadler.  At 4-1 on the morning line she offers nice value in the straight pool.  #1 Savings Account appears the one to fear most and should be included in your rolling exotics.  A winner of two of her last four starts including a solid allowance race over this track and distance in July, the Proctor-trained filly retains Smith and has the benefit of the rail post.  She should find herself in an ideal pace stalking spot, and can be counted on for another big effort.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-Almost Reality; 5-Bilger’s Sapphire

This is a below par field of older state-bred fillies and mares going long on the lawn.  We’ll use just two, but feel free to spread.  #4 Almost Reality hasn’t made any real progress since a fairly promising try vs. colts in her second career start but against this group she’s a major contender by default.  #5 Bilger’s Sapphire, second in the same race ‘Reality just finished third in, is a 12-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but she really doesn’t have to improve at all to win.  Feel free to toss in anybody else that catches your eye.