SEPTEMBER 3, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $31.50 investment

1st race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

2nd race: 1, 2, 4

3rd race: 2, 6, 7

4th race: 3, 8

5th race: 9

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: Pass – No Play

The Thursday opener, a replay of an August 13 race in which four of the seven entrants in this race exit, appears completely wide open with nothing to trust.  These juvenile fillies are in various stages of improvement and regression, so anything is possible.  We’ll pass the race but for rolling exotic purposes we’ll hit the “all” button and hope for the best price.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Fantastic Mizz; 2-Zambo; 4-She’s Flush

This is another difficult affair requiring a spread; we’ll go three deep and hope to survive and advance.  #4 She’s Flush takes a significant drop in class and switches to Nakatani; the veteran mare is a strong fit on speed figures and knows how to win races.  There may be some value here if you can get close to her 6-1 morning line.  #1 Fantastic Mizz is the likely pacesetter from her good inside draw but she usually doesn’t get there, as her record of three wins and 17 seconds and thirds clearly indicates.  Garcia knows her well and will try to hold her together late.  #4 She’s Flush, fifth in the same race Fantastic Mizz was just second in, retains Bejarano and always has liked this turf course, though she doesn’t appear nearly as sharp now as she was in the spring.  She’s probably worth including at least as a backup.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Of Course It Is; 6-Brookes All Mine; 7-Scarlet Emerald

This is another tough affair matching a completely unclassified group of maiden claiming juvenile fillies.  #7 Scarlet Emerald seems the best of the known element so we’ll use her but certainly not trust her.  The Miller-trained daughter of Desert Part blew a three length mid-stretch lead in a slightly tougher spot last month but at least it was a step forward off her debut effort and with further improvement she’ll be dangerous against this group.  The main concern is the extra half furlong of today’s race.  #2 Of Course It Is has shown a bit of ability in the morning; the D’Amato-trained filly brought $50,000 as a yearling and debuts for $40,000 so she’s clearly not all that highly regarded but in a field like this she should be a fit.  #6 Brookes All Mine has done some good work in the a.m. at Los Alamitos for O’Neill and attracts Bejarano.  Her solid gate work at Del Mar Aug. 30 points her out as a logical contender.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring the newcomer Of Course It Is on top.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Sir Cal; 8-At Ease

#3 Sir Cal is a seven-race maiden but gets his easiest chance yet and is strictly the one to beat in this straight maiden state-bred turf affair.  Second behind What a View is a fast, highly-rated affair last month, the Becerra-trained colt has nobody in here of similar quality to worry about and on pure speed figures deserves top billing.  Bejarano stays aboard.  #8 At Ease didn’t run badly in his debut when earning a decent number in a high-priced maiden claimer.  We’re not convinced this Calbred group is any tougher, and if the Cyclotron gelding produces any kind of forward move he could make a run for it.  Sir Cat gets the edge on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Moonlight Meeting

We’re going to take a shot here and single #9 Moonlight Meeting.  Third in a very strong race last month, he was claimed by Truman, who gave him the month off and returns him at the same level while switching to Desormeaux.  The Malibu Moon gelding also has the powerful route-to-sprint angle working for him and speed figures that are more than good enough to win in this league.  One of his two prior victories came at this six and one-half furlong distance and two easy workouts since changing barns should have him fresh and ready.  At 7/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 3-Pippappy

#3 Pippappy has much in his favor and we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.  First off the claim for Sise while adding blinkers and stretching out, the son of Majestic Warrior has sprint figures that, if duplicated, would be more than good enough to beat this field and the pedigree suggests the added ground won’t be a problems.  Two nice workouts since joining his new barn is another positive factor and the switch to Sise’s main guy, Desormeaux, is another confidence builder.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 2-Turnover

#2 Turnover has been scratched twice since finishing third over a muddy track early in the meeting but he continues to train on a regular schedule so we assume he’s fine.  The Baffert-trained colt is bred for grass on both sides of his pedigree and has plenty of class and promise; we’re thinking he’s going to love this five furlong trip and be able to stay within range early and exert his superiority late.  At 6-1 on the morning line the son of Big Brown offers considerable value both in the straight play and in the rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Alltheleavesrbrown; 6-Attack; 9-Lucky Logan

This nightcap is a messy bottom-rung maiden claiming miler.  Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to; we’ll go three deep but not with a great deal of confidence.  #2 Alltheleavesrbrown plummets to the bottom; the Stidham-trained gelding has numbers on turf that are more than good enough to win at this level and he should be forwardly placed and free of trouble.  It’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll act on dirt.  #6 Attack puts on blinkers for the first time while dropping to his lowest level ever and could wake up for DeLeon; he’s another with a few back figs that make him dangerous.  #9 Lucky Logan is a stretch-out play for Miller (solid stats with this angle) and exits a fairly decent race.  If he can shake loose early he could get brave and never look back.