Jeff Siegel's Elite-8 Breeders' Cup Rankings

Updated October 6, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 - American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 - Beholder (R. Mandella)
3 - Tonalist (C. Clement)

4 - Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

5 - Gleneagles-Ir (A. O’Brien)

6 - Keen Ice (D. Romans)

7 - Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

8 - Smooth Roller (V. Garcia)

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers, American Pharoah remains tops in this division.  In his third workout since that race, the Triple Crown winner worked five furlongs in 59 4/5 seconds at Santa Anita Oct. 3.  Trainer Bob Baffert has decided to train the colt up to the race in California rather than ship to Churchill Downs as originally contemplated. Beholder maintained her edge in what was nothing more than an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta Stakes Sept. 26 at Santa Anita in her final BC prep, winning in a common gallop. She will ship to Keeneland on Oct. 19.  Tonalist was superb winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 over his favorite track (Belmont Park) and surface (wet).  Meanwhile, Honor Code was below his best form when a non-threatening third over that same very wet track in the Kelso S-G2 in his final tuneup; clearly he's very good when things set up well for him, but it's obvious that he's pace dependent.  Smooth Roller joins the list following his highly-rated victory in the Awesome Again S.-G1, though he couldn’t have drawn up a more perfect trip if he tried.  As for any challenges from Europe, Gleneagles-IR is said to be under consideration and really would have everything to gain and nothing to lose by giving it a whirl. The son of Galileo is undefeated this year and the winner of three consecutive Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and most recently the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.  He’s never been farther than a mile and obviously has never raced on dirt, but his dam is a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway and trainer Aidan O’Brien reportedly believes he’ll be suited by the Breeders’ Cup Classic conditions. 

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 - Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)
2 - Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

3 - Dortmund (B. Baffert)

4 - Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

5 - Red Vine (C. Clement)

6 - Valid (M. Vitali)

7 - Bradester (E. Kenneally)

8 - Iron Fist (J. Hollendorfer)

ANALYSIS – Liam’s Map could be superior under these conditions but his connections also are strongly considering the Classic.  He'll be pre-entered in both.  His win in the Woodward S.-G1 was outstanding, but nine furlongs isn't a mile and one-quarter for this need-the-lead speedster, especially against this level of competition.  He'd be better off in the BC Mile, where he'll sure be favored.  Another front-running type, Appealing Tale, took the Kelso H.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion over a very wet track that he clearly enjoyed.  His connections are hoping/praying that Liam's Map opts for the Classic. We still have listed Private Zone in the sprint division but his connections will strongly consider this race if Liam's Map isn't in it.  Dortmund, unraced since the Preakness, has had six workouts since Aug. 24; however, he’s no sure thing to run in this, or any other Breeders’ Cup race, with the Clark H.-G1 at Churchill Downs Nov. 27 the long term goal.  Wicked Strong was an admirable runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 behind Tonalist; a mile might not be his best trip but he'll fit much better against this level of competition so we suspect his connections will pass the Classic and opt for the Mile.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 - Golden Horn-GB (J. Gosden)

2 - Flintshire-GB (A. Fabre)

3 - Free Eagle-IR (D. Weld)
4 - The Grey Gatsby (K. Ryan)

5 - Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

6 - The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

7 - Big John B (P. D’Amato)

8 - Twilight Eclipse (T. Albertrani)

ANALYSIS – Golden Horn-GB regained his top class form with a victory in the Irish Championship S.-G1 and then followed that victory with a convincing score in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1 on Sunday.  The BC Turf remains under strong consideration; British bookmakers now are listing the John Gosden-trained colt at 4/5 for the BC Turf.  His owner was quoted as saying "Golden Horn came out of the race amazingly well."  Flintshire-GB toyed with the best North American-based runners in the Sword Dancer S.-G1 and then lost little when an excellent second to Golden Horn in the Arc. There's every expectation that he'll return to the States, setting up a potential rematch with the Arc winner. Free Eagle-IR, a badly hampered third behind Golden Horn at Leopardstown, finished sixth, beaten four lengths, in the Arc; his connections were somewhat disappointed in the outcome (blaming, in part, a slow pace) and a trip to Keeneland is an option being considered. Although winless in 2015, The Grey Gatsby has placed in four high class Group-1 races in England this year and his connections are looking forward to trying him over a mile and one half.  Big Blue Kitten may be the best of the American contingent following his course record-setting victory in the Hirsch S.-G1 but the Euro’s remain in a different league and could easily dominate the race depending who and how many are sent over.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 - Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 - Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 - Rock Fall (T. Pletcher)

4 - Work All Week (R. Brueggeman)

5 - Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)

6 - Wild Dude (J. Hollendorfer)

7 - Big Macher (R. Baltas)
8 - Barbados (M. Tomlinson)

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego S.-G1 with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  His connections know the pace scenario in the BC Sprint will be considerably more intense, which is why they’re looking at the BC Mile as a viable alternative.   The decision might not come until entry time.  We suspect that if Liam’s Map opts for the Mile, ‘Zone will run in the Sprint, but if ‘Map runs in the Classic, ‘Zone’s people will find the Mile (which will present a short stretch with the finish line at the 1/16 pole) a better option.   Runhappy remained unbeaten in sprint races with a highly impressive wet-track victory in the Phoenix S.-G3 at Keeneland. Barbados, BC Sprint champion Work All Week, and Holy Boss followed him home.  It’s hard to find fault with a seven race winning streak and Rock Fall did what he had to do in the Vosburgh-G1.  However, he was fully-extended with a perfect trip in a race that saw four horses within a length of each other at the wire, and while the number was good, we’ve always believed that Beyer figures in New York sprint races tend to be inflated.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 - Esoterique-IR (A. Fabre)

2 - Muhaarar-GB (C. Hills)                       

3 - Karakontie-JP (J. Pease)
4 - Make Believe-GB (A. Fabre)

5 - Mondialiste-IR (D. O’Meara)

6 - Obviously-IR (P. D’Amato)
7 - Tepin (M. Casse)

8 - Grand Arch (B. Lynch)

ANALYSIS – Esoterique-IR won a “win and you’re in” race in France last month and then was thoroughly convincing taking the Sun Chariot S.-G1 at Newmarket on the first Saturday in October.  At age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre.  Muhaarar-GB has been a high class sprinter this year – he’s won three straight Group-1 stakes at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Deauville, respectively – but trainer Charles Hills believes the son of Oasis Dream would be ideally suited by the extra ground offered by the BC Mile at Keeneland. He'll first run in the Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot Oct. 17 and then, as Hills put it, "well take it from there." Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie-JP, a close third in the Prix du Moulin-G1 at Longchamp in just his second start this year, is rounding to top form while Make Believe-GB won the Prix de la Foret-G1 at Longchamp and captured the French 2000 Guineas-G1 earlier this year. Mondialiste-IR got his ticket paid for with his victory in the Woodbine Mile-G1, while Obviously-IR, in his first start of the year, finished an excellent third at Woodbine in race that should do him wonders.  Tepin, extremely impressive winning the First Lady S.-G1, shows up on this list because her connections believe she is best suited for a mile rather than the mile and three-sixteenths distance of the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 - Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 - Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)
3 - Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

4 - Untapable (S. Asmussen)

5 - Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

6 - Yahilwa (J. Hollendorfer)

7 - Stellar Wind (J. Sadler)
8 - I'm a Chatterbox (L. Jones)

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast has won eight of 12 in including a romp in the Beldame S.-G1.  With Beholder opting for the Classic, the daughter of Street Sense should inherit the favorite’s role.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  Got Lucky rises in the rankings following her determined win in the Spinster S.-G1 at Keeneland over Untapable, Yahilwa, and Frivolous.  The three year old fillies are good, not great, with Stellar Wind, I’m a Chatterbox and Curalina needing to raise their game just a bit to be a serious threat vs. the older mares.   

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 - Legatissimo-IR (D. Wachman)

2 - Dacita-CH (C. Brown)

3 - Secret Gesture-GB (R. Beckett)

4 - Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

5 - Watsdachances (C. Brown)

6 - Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)
7 - Curvy (D. Wachman)
8 - Photo Call-IR (G. Motion)

ANALYSIS – Legatissimo-IR has won back-to-back Group-1 races, the Nassau S. at Goodwood and the Matron S. at Leopardstown, and according to trainer David Wachman is ticketed for the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Dacita-CH, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa S.-G2 while verifying her superior Chilean form. Secret Gesture, disqualified from first in the Beverly D Stakes, was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and would seem like a logical starter in the race again in 2015.  Stephanie's Kitten got back on track with a win in the Flower Bowl S.-G1 over a soft turf course.  We're expecting to learn in the new few days which Europeans-based runners will be considered; the Jim Bolger-trained Pleascach, for example, would be as strong fit here if she's sent over. 

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 - Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)                

2 - Stonetastic (K. Breen)
3 - Ben's Duchess (J. Sadler)
4 - Taris (J. Sadler)

5 - Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)                             

6 - La Verdad (L. Rice)

8 - Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher)

8 - Uzziel (K. Desormeaux)

ANALYSIS – Cavorting has the closing style that appears ideally suited for this seven furlong trip and continues to improve with each race. Stonetastic looked like her old self in a confidence-building runaway win vs. overmatched allowance foes at Parx while earning a 109 Beyer figure.  Ben's Duchess is an improving prototype late-running sprinter with a wicked turn of foot.  Her deep-closing score in the L.A. Woman - at the expense of odds-on Taris - was legit and earned a triple-digit Beyer.  Taris finished a disappointing third in that race after being caught four-wide battling on a torrid pace.  She had been trained lightly since her victory in the Rancho Bernardo and ran like she needed the race badly.  La Verdad won the Gallant Bloom S.-G2 in typically game fashion but the BC trip of seven furlongs is stretching her limit. 

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 - Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 - Ready for Rye (T. Albertrani)

3 - Undrafted (W. Ward)

4 - Ageless (A. Delacour)
5 - No Silent (G. Mandella)

6 - Pure Sensation (C. Clement)
7 - Mongolian Saturday (E. Ganbat)                     

8 - Amelia's Wild Ride (R. Preciado)

ANALYSIS – Lady Shipman, a perfect seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs (this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint is carded at five and one-half furlongs), will prep for the race Friday at Keeneland in the Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.  She’s very fast on speed figures and can win on the lead or from a stalking spot.  Ready for Rye cruised in the off-the-turf Allied Forces S.in the mud at Belmont for his third straight win last week and probably is even more effective on turf.   We have not included any Europeans on this list, though Undrafted did invade Royal Ascot in June to win the Group-1 Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, who will be reunited with the Wesley Ward-trained colt for this race. Amelia's Wild Ride, winner  of the off-the-turf Woodford S., is under consideration but needs to be supplemented.  Bobby's Kitten, far below form in two 2015 starts, will defend his BC Sprint title, according to trainer Chad Brown.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 - Brody's Cause (D. Romans)
2 - Greenpointcrusader (D. Schettino)
3 - Nyquist (D. O'Neill)

4 - Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)

5 - Sudden Surprise (T. Pletcher)

6 - Swipe (K. Desormeaux)
7 - Riker (N. Gonzalez)

8 - Ralis (D. O'Neill)

ANALYSIS – Brody's Cause is a rapidly progressing colt and produced an impressive late kick to win the Breeders' Futurity-G1 over the same course and distance of the BC Juvenile. The victory came on the heels of a smart recent maiden win at Churchill Downs and with his pedigree and true route style the son of Giant's Causeway looks like the one to beat. Greenpointcrusader was outstanding when winning the Champagne S.-G1 while earning a legitimate number.  The wet track makes it difficult to truly gauge his performance but we sure liked what we saw.  Nyquist is undefeated in four starts including victories in two Grade One events – the Del Mar Futurity and the FrontRunner S. – but he’s not fast on speed figures and probably hasn't been beating all that much on the West Coast. Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special S.-G2 but was no match for Brody's Cause in the Breeders' Futurity, failing to match strides with that colt in the final furlong after hitting the front entering the lane. He may have been a tad short for the race, or perhaps he's better around one turn.  Riker is undefeated in Canada - he won the Grey S.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion while setting easy splits - and will get tested against the big boys at Keeneland. Ralis was a smart winner of the Hopeful S.-G1 but the race's form hasn't held up and he was up the track in the Champagne over an off track that his connections are hoping he didn't care for.  

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 - Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

2 - Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

3 - Tap to It (R. Nicks)
4 - Nickname (S. Asmussen)
5 - Nemoralia (J. Noseda)

6 - Land over Sea (D. O’Neill)
7 - Gomo (D. O'Neill)
8 - Gamble's Ghost (J. Carroll)

ANALYSIS – The victory by Songbird in the Chandelier S.-G1 vaults her to the number one spot in our rankings but the margin is thin over Rachel’s Valentina.  The difference is that the Hollendorfer-trained filly has proven winning form around and her number was strong. Rachel’s Valentina’s victory the Spinaway S.-G1 gave the impression that she'll handle a route of ground as well and she'll get her chance to prove it on Breeders' Cup day.  Both are superior fillies.  Tap to It performed gallantly when second in the Spinaway - the quick turnaround from her maiden win did her no favors - and is another that will appreciate two-turns.  Nickname and English invader Nemoralia finished one-two in the Frizette-G1 but the very wet track that makes the result hard to trust. Land over Sea, third in the Debutante behind Songbird and then second to her again in the Chandelier, might actually be better on turf but reportedly this is where she’ll run along with stablemate Gomo, who splashed to victory in a very weak renewal of the Alicibiades S.-G1. 

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

1 - Airoforce (M. Casse)

2 - Conquest Daddyo (M. Casse)
3 - Camelot Kitten (C. Brown)
4 - Hollywood Don (P. Miller)

5 - Isotherm (G. Weaver)

6 - Ray’s the Bar (C. Brown)

7 - Azar (T. Pletcher)

8 - Sky Marshal (B. Minshall)

ANALYSIS – We have no current European-based runners listed but you know they're coming.  When confirmations begin to trickle in we'll include them in our rankings. The major yards (O’Brien, Gosden, et al) probably have a dozen or more to choose from.  As for the North American-based runners, trainer Mark Casse is sitting pretty with a pair of excellent prospects.  Aeroforce improved his record to two-for-two with a smart score in the Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland and has the best resume of the locals. Conquest Daddyo is a Scat Daddy colt that won his turf debut in the Summer S.-G2 at Woodbine and has plenty of room for upside.  Camelot Kitten, a full-brother to Bobby's Kitten, was a strong closing second behind Aeroforce and with another forward move will be very dangerous on Breeders' Cup day. Hollywood Don has won twice going long on turf, a maiden at Del Mar (on the lead) and then the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. (off the pace) while earning strong figures in both.  His third place effort behind Nyquist in his first try on dirt in the FrontRunner S,-G1 was not very inspiring so the son of Tapit will go back to turf.  Isotherm was an upset winner of the Pilgrim S.-G3; however, the entire field finish in a heap so it may not have been much of a race.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 - Catch a Glimpse (M. Casse)

2 - Harmonize (W. Mott)

3 - Tin Type Gal (G. Motion)

4 - Jakaby Jade (D. O’Neill)
5 - Last Waltz-IR (C. Brown

6 - Thrilled (T. Pletcher)

7 - One Last Shot (B. Baffert)

8 - Llanita-GB (C. Brown)

ANALYSIS – Catch a Glimpse appears to be another in a very long list of City Zip fillies that excel on turf.  Her runaway win in the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine stamps her as the leading North American-based filly in this division over the sharp P.G. Johnson S. winner Harmonize.  Tin Type Gal is unbeaten in two starts following her workmanlike victory in the Miss Grillo S.-G3 over Thrilled.  Jakaby Jade arrived from Europe with nothing more than a five furlong maiden win at Lingfield and promptly won the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf in good style.  Last Waltz-IR, a close third in a recent Group-3 in Ireland, has been purchased privately and will join the Chad Brown barn as a probable starter.