Jeff Siegel's Elite-8 Breeders' Cup Rankings

Updated Sept. 24, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 – American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 – Beholder (R. Mandella)

3 – Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

4 – Gleneagles-Ir (A. O’Brien)

5 – Keen Ice (D. Romans)

6 – Tonalist (C. Clement)

7 – Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

8 – Coach Inge (T. Pletcher)

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers, American Pharoah remains tops in this division.  In his first workout since that race, the Triple Crown winner breezed a half mile in 49 4/5 seconds at Santa Anita Sept. 21.  It’s probable that ‘Pharoah will be shipped to Kentucky from his current base at Santa Anita early in October and be trained up to the Classic over the Churchill Downs main track that he’s said to be especially fond of.   Beholder has benefitted greatly from a conservative 2015 campaign and most likely will have what amounts to be an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta Stakes Sept. 26 at Santa Anita as her final prep.  She’s been kept on edge since her runaway Pacific Classic victory at Del Mar with a series of typically sharp workouts, most recently a six furlong bullet drill of 1:12 4/5 seconds Sept. 18.  The brilliant European colt Gleneagles-IR is under consideration, though a start in the Champions Stakes at Ascot Oct. 17 seems more likely.  The son of Galileo is undefeated this year and the winner of three consecutive Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and most recently the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.  He’s never been farther than a mile and obviously has never raced on dirt, but his dam is a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway and trainer Aidan O’Brien obviously believes he’ll be suited the Breeders’ Cup Classic conditions. 

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 – Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)

2 – Dortmund (B. Baffert)

3 – Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

4 – Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

5 – Red Vine (C. Clement)

6 – Valid (M. Vitali)

7 – Bradester (E. Kenneally)

8 – Iron Fist (J. Hollendorfer)

ANALYSIS – The BC Dirt Mile always has been considered to be something of a BC Classic consolation prize for those horses who fall just below Classic quality or who find 10 furlongs out of their range.  The problem is there are so few significant two-turn mile races in North America that the division never has a chance to develop its own identity.  Liam’s Map could be superior under these conditions but his connections also are strongly considering the Classic following a smart victory by the son of Unbridled’s Song in the 9F Woodward.  Dortmund, unraced since the Preakness, worked five furlongs in 1:01 flat at Santa Anita Sept. 21. However, he’s no sure thing to run in this, or any other Breeders’ Cup race, with the Clark H.-G1 at Churchill Downs Nov. 27 the long term goal.  This is a volatile list that could find a major contender or two transferring from the sprint division as we get closer to Breeders’ Cup weekend.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 – Golden Horn-GB (J. Gosden)

2 – Flintshire-GB (A. Fabre)

3 – Free Eagle-IR (D. Weld)
4 - The Grey Gatsby (K. Ryan)

5 – Red Rifle (T. Pletcher)

6 – Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

7 – The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

8 – Big John B (P. D’Amato)

ANALYSIS – Firm ground specialist Golden Horn-GB regained his top class form with a victory in the Irish Championship Stakes; assuming the weather cooperates he’ll next run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1, where the John Gosden-trained colt likely will be second choice to Treve.  A start in the BC Turf is said to be under consideration to complete the year.  Although he’s not listed in the above rankings, the Gosden-trained Jack Hobbs could be BC-bound as well, though an entry in the Champions S.-G1 at Ascot Oct. 17 seems more likely.  The rapidly-progressing son of Halling is a soft ground specialist, so the projected weather forecast could dictate his plans.  Flintshire-GB toyed with the best North American-based runners in the Sword Dancer S.-G1 and last year’s BC Turf runner-up strongly prefers dry turf.  He is slated to run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe if the ground is suitable before returning for the Breeders’ Cup.  Free Eagle-IR, a badly hampered third behind Golden Horn at Leopardstown, is another being mentioned as a BC possible by his connections. Although winless in 2015, The Grey Gatsby has placed in four high class Group-1 races England this year and his connections are looking forward to trying him over a mile and one half.  Red Rifle seems to have distanced himself from the American contingent but the Euro’s remain in a different league and could easily dominate the race depending who and how many are sent over.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 – Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 – Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 – Rock Fall (T. Pletcher)

4 – Work All Week (R. Brueggeman)

5 – Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)

6 – Masochistic (R. Ellis)

7 – Big Macher (R. Baltas)
8 - Limousine Liberal (B. Colebrook)

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego S.-G1 with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  His connections know the pace scenario in the BC Sprint will be considerably more intense, which is why they’re looking at the BC Mile as an alternative.   However, we expect ‘Zone will remain in this division.  Runhappy was freaky fast in the King’s Bishop and is absolutely for real, though the King’s Bishop second place finisher, Limousine Liberal, did little to frank the form by finishing second at 4/5 to Troubled Kid in the Gallant Bob S.-G3 at Parx Sept. 19 in a disappointing effort that might be attributed to the relatively quick three-week turnaround. 

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 – Muhaarar-GB (C. Hills)

2 – Esoterique-IR (A. Fabre)                       

3 – Karakontie-JP (J. Pease)

4 – Mondialiste-IR (D. O’Meara)

5 – Obviously-IR (P. D’Amato)

6 – Mshawish (T. Pletcher)

7 – Seek Again (W. Mott)
8 - Avanzare (T. Proctor)

ANALYSIS – The American contingent lost its best turf miler with the retirement of two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, so the Europeans could easily dominate this race depending who and how many are brought over.  Muhaarar-GB has been a high class sprinter this year – he’s won three straight Group-1 stakes at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Deauville, respectively – but trainer Charles Hills believes the son of Oasis Dream will be ideally suited by the extra ground offered by the BC Mile at Keeneland.  Esoterique-IR won a “win and you’re in” race in France earlier last month and at age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre.   Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie-JP, a close third in the Prix du Moulin-G1 at Longchamp in just his second start this year, is rounding to top form while Mondialiste-IR got his ticket paid for with his victory in the Woodbine Mile-G1.  Obviously-IR, in his first start of the year, finished an admirable third at Woodbine in race that should do him wonders.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 – Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 – Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)

3 – Untapable (S. Asmussen)

4 – Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

5 – Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

6 – Frivolous (V. Oliver)

7 – Stellar Wind (J. Sadler)

8 – I’m a Chatterbox (L. Jones)

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast bypassed Saratoga - partially by design and partially because of a minor foot issue - and will be fresh for the fall.  She’s won seven of 11, however, in her only start at Keeneland she finished fourth in the Madison S.-G1 last spring, the time she's finished off the board.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  The three year old fillies are good, not great, with Stellar Wind, I’m a Chatterbox and Curalina capable of beating one another on any given day.   With Beholder now pointing for the Classic, favoritism is this race will be determined by key October prep races in New York and Kentucky.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 – Legatissimo-IR (D. Wachman)

2 – Dacita-CH (C. Brown)

3 – Secret Gesture-GB (R. Beckett)

4 – Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)

5 – Tepin (M. Casse)

6 – Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

7 – Kitten’s Queen (C. Brown)

8 – Watsdachances (C. Brown)

ANALYSIS – Legatissimo-IR has won back-to-back Group-1 races, the Nassau S. at Goodwood and the Matron S. at Leopardstown, and according to trainer David Wachman is ticketed for the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Secret Gesture, disqualified from first in the Beverly D Stakes, was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and would seem like a logical starter in the race again in 2015.  These are just two European-based distaffers among several that will be considered for the race; the Jim Bolger-trained Pleascatch, for example, would be as strong fit here if she's sent over.   Dacita-CH, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa while verifying her superior Chilean form. 

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 – Taris (S. Callaghan)

2 – Unbridled Forever (D. Stewart)

3 – Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)                    

4 – Stonetastic (K. Breen)

5 – Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)                             

6 – Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher)

7 – La Verdad (L. Rice)
8 - Super Majesty (J. Hollendorfer)

ANALYSIS – Taris returned to winning form at Del Mar with an easy victory in the Rancho Bernardo Stakes while showing the ability to stalk and win, rather than just blast to the front.  The best race of her career came over the Keeneland main track in last year’s Raven Run S.-G2.   Unbridled Forever and Cavorting have styles that are ideally suited for seven furlongs and are top class.  Stonetastic looked like her old self in a confidence-building runaway win against overmatched allowance foes at Parx while earning a 109 Beyer figure.  

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 – Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 – Ready for Rye (T. Albertrani)

3 – Undrafted (W. Ward)

4 – Ageless (A. Delacour)

5 – Pure Sensation (C. Clement)                      

6 – Sharp Sensation (R. Baker)
7 - Amelia's Wild Ride (R. Preciado)
8 - Mongolian Saturday (E. Ganbat)

ANALYSIS – With her victory in the Smart and Fancy S. at Saratoga, Lady Shipman now is a perfect seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs (this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint is carded at five and one-half furlongs).  She’s very fast on speed figures and can win on the lead or from a stalking spot.  Ready for Rye cruised in the off-the-turf Allied Forces S.in the mud at Belmont for his third straight win last week and probably is even more effective on turf.   We have not included any Europeans on this list, though Undrafted did invade Royal Ascot in June to win the Group-1 Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, who will be reunited with the Wesley Ward-trained colt for this race.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 – Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)

2 – Nyquist (D. O’Neill)

3 – Ralis (D. O’Neill)

4 – Sudden Surprise (T. Pletcher)

5 – Swipe (K. Desormeaux)

6 – Magna Light (R. Rodriguez)

7 – Amis Gizmo (J. Carroll)

8 – Conquest Twister (M. Casse)

ANALYSIS – Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special and gives every indication that he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase.  Nyquist is undefeated in three starts and looked good – though nothing like American Pharoah the previous year – in winning the Del Mar Futurity-G1.  His Doug O’Neill-trained (and lesser regarded) stablemate Ralis actually earned a better figure in winning the Hopeful S.-G1.  As of now the Eastern-based two-year-olds are not an impressive group, but that can change overnight, with recent impressive maiden winner Mohaymen possibly having star quality.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 – Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

2 – Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

3 – Tap to It (R. Nicks)

4 – Pretty N Cool (B. Baffert)

5 – Land over Sea (D. O’Neill)

6 – Dothraki Queen (K. McPeek)

7 – Width (C. Clement)

8 – Lemhill Basr (B. Baffert)

ANALYSIS – Rachel’s Valentina improved her record to two-for-two with an excellent performance in the Spinaway S.-G1 while once again giving the impression that the longer they go, the better she’ll be.  Songbird worked a sharp half mile in 47 1/5 seconds at Santa Anita Sept. 21 and will be a strong favorite for the Chandelier S.-G1 on Saturday.  Tap to It lost little in defeat when second in the Spinaway - the quick turnaround from her maiden win did her no favors -  and is another that will appreciate two-turns.  Land over Sea, third in the Debutante, might actually be better on turf and we wonder if her connections are thinking in those terms.  We have maiden debut winners Width and Lemhill Basr rated seventh and eighth, respectively, but both are high potential types and could easily be better than that.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

1 – Hollywood Don (P. Miller)

2 – Conquest Daddyo (M. Casse)

3 – Hot Ore (R. Diodoro)

4 – Azar (T. Pletcher)

5 – Eidmilaad (C. Brown)

6 – Cajun Schill (W. Kaplan)

7 – Uncle Brennie (B. Cox)

8 – Sky Marshal (B. Minshall)

ANALYSIS – We have no Europeans listed but you know they're coming.  When confirmations begin to trickle in, we'll include them in our rankings, probably around the first week of October.  There sure are a whole lot to choose from.  As for the North American-based runners, Hollywood Don has won twice going long on turf, a maiden at Del Mar (on the lead) and then the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. (off the pace) while earning strong figures in both.  He’s a quality colt by Tapit; however, trainer Peter Miller has chosen to experiment on dirt for the first time in the Frontrunner S.-G1 at Santa Anita Sept. 26.  Conquest Daddyo is a Scat Daddy colt from the Casse barn that won his turf debut in the Summer S.-G2 at Woodbine and has plenty of room for upside.  Hot Ore, an excellent second from a poor draw behind Hollywood Don at Del Mar, is another progressive sort bred for turf (Unusual Heat).  

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 – Catch a Glimpse (M. Casse)

2 – Harmonize (W. Mott)

3 – Nemoralia (J. Noseda)

4 – Jakaby Jade (D. O’Neill)

5 – Gamble’s Ghost (J. Carroll)

6 – Thrilled (T. Pletcher)

7 – One Last Shot (B. Baffert)

8 – Ruthless Quality (E. Harty)

ANALYSIS – Catch a Glimpse appears to be another in a very long list of City Zip fillies that excel on turf.  Her runaway win in the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine stamps her as the leading North American-based filly in this division slightly over the sharp P.G. Johnson S. winner Harmonize.  Jakaby Jade arrived from Europe with nothing more than a five furlong maiden win at Lingfield and promptly won the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf in good style.  There are tons of fillies like her in Europe, including Nemoralia, a daughter of More Than Ready that just won a valuable a 19-runner nursery at Doncaster last week.  Trainer Jeremy Noseda says he’s actually aiming for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (on dirt) but we suspect he’ll change his mind and opt for this more logical spot.  Several additional European-based fillies are certain to be under consideration and when their names are known we'll include them.