SEPTEMBER 4, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $81 investment

1st race: 3, 5, 7

2nd race: 2, 4, 9

3rd race: 1, 3, 4

4th race: 7, 8, 10

5th race: 2, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Atlantic Slew; 5-Briana Jones; 7-Tiz Pleasant

Miyadi and Mulhall saddle half the field in this difficult maiden claiming state-bred sprint.  We’ve listed the three logical contenders above but have no plans to get involved (the “C” grade).  #3 Atlantic Slew didn’t do a whole lot of running in her debut but she exits a much, much tougher race and rates a big look against this group by default.  #5 Briana Jones also is dropping in class, though not nearly as dramatically, and has been a money burner in two of her last three starts.  But at least she’s managed to hit the board in her last three, so there’s that.  Tiz Pleasant is slow on figures but continues to train well and probably has a forward move in her. Tread lightly here.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Shake Things Up; 4-Commander King; 9-Gunslinger

#4 Commander King earned a career top number when a strong closing third in a similar starter’s allowance turf event last month and with any kind of forward move today should be able to produce the last run.  Gonzalez stays aboard for Sadler and a healthy work pattern since his last race indicates this son of Scat Daddy is doing extremely well.  #9 Gunslinger beat a woeful maiden claiming field by almost 24 lengths last month and was promptly claimed by O’Neill, who protects him and tries turf today.  The son of Indian Charlie earned a good number – not great but good – so we’ll see what he’s made of today.  In a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of pace in it, he should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  #2 Shake Things Up is a newcomer from New York in the Miller barn; the Shakespeare colt broke his maiden on the lead through walking splits in his last start and is hard to classify here, though he seems to be a progressive sort that was purchased privately specifically for this type for race.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Commander King on top.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Yana; 3-Never Ends; 4-French Press

This race is loaded with front-running types so the winner could be the one that can finish a little from off the pace.  It’s hard to say what #3 Never Ends can do over a distance of ground – she’s stretching out for the first time today – but her maiden win at Santa Rosa was a confidence builder and earned a big number; we doubt she would have been returned to this circuit unless Hollendorfer thought she could fit.  The question is, will she get caught up in a speed duel and pay the price late?  #1 Yana, on paper, is another that needs the lead for her best and from the rail she’s likely to be sent hard to the front.  She could receive considerable pressure, but if not, the daughter of Bertrando will have every chance after finishing second at 15-1 over this track and distance last month.  Offering potentially the best value in the race at 8-1 on the morning line is #4 French Pass; the D’Amato-trained filly has the ability to pass horses and as a daughter of Curlin should very much appreciate this two-turn trip.  A strong, healthy work pattern in recent weeks is a positive sign and Prat likely will give her the patient ride she wants.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with the best price on top, French Pass.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 7-Nashoba’s Candy; 8-Dreamologist; 10-Margaret Reay

#8 Dreamologist was a tad disappointing in her debut earlier this meeting but the race has proven to be extremely productive and we suspect the daughter of Tapit will improve considerably under conditions (route, turf) that she’s bred to enjoy.  She continues to impress in the morning for Mandella (excellent stats with the dirt-to-turf angle) and retains Prat; don’t be surprised if she’s on the lead from start to finish.  #7 Nashoba’s Candy exits what we think was a modest race and she could only manage to finish seventh, though beaten only two lengths.  However, the well-bred daughter of Candy Ride seems certain to improve a bunch with that effort behind and Stevens rides her back.  That, along with this nine furlong trip, could make her a major contender.  #10 Margaret Reay is drawn poorly outside again but this is her third start off a layoff and she’s quite likely to continue her improving pattern for Proctor.  Look for Van Dyke to take back and produce a strong late kick.  We’ll prefer Dreamologist on top and have extra tickets with her in the straight pool; however, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 2-Viviendo El Sueno; 4-Smoky Image

#4 Smoke Image is an unbeaten Northern California invader with a huge speed figure advantage on the local contingent, and his pace/prompting/stalking style will allow Hernandez to settle in and pick his spot.  A perfect three-for-three up north and already a two-time stakes winner, the son of Southern Image will be hard to beat.  #2 Viviendo El Sueno lost his best chance at the start when stumbling badly in the Graduation Stakes but didn’t run badly under the circumstances and has trained very well since.  He looks very much like the one to fear most.  We’ll prefer Smoky Image on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Set of J’s; 8-Inkling

This five furlong dash for second-level allowance turf sprinters is loaded with contention and price possibilities; the two listed above should run very well but, of course, will need some racing luck.  #8 Inkling, an intriguing Australian import making his U.S. debut by way of Kentucky, certainly can fire fresh (he won his debut by almost six lengths down under) and has trained like he’s fit and ready for Ward.  It’s hard to know exactly what his style is, but with Desormeaux up we suspect this lightly-raced colt is cranked up and ready to go in his first start with Lasix.  #5 Set of J’s, launching a comeback for D’Amato, has been away for almost a year but has really been honed to fire a big shot off the bench and his turf sprinting form as a 3-year-old makes him a solid contender with this group.  You have to use him at 5-1 on the morning line. 

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 9-Clearly See; 11-Resistanceisfutile; 13-Southern Loyalty

This is a typical bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint with the known element not offering much in the way value or confidence.  #13 Southern Loyalty draws in from the also-eligible list and may be the best of those that have experience; the Yankee Gentlemen gelding is an eight-race maiden and certainly not one to trust but he’s drawn outside, should have clear sailing and every chance, and has back figures that are better than par for this level.  His recent runner-up try over this track and distance was okay and if he can build a little on that effort today she should be a late factor.  #9 Clearly See is a newcomer that has found a very soft spot; from the Glatt barn (excellent stats with first-time starters), the son of Pollard’s Vision has shown enough in the a.m. to warrant as huge look first crack out of the box.  Perez has been out in the morning to work him.   Also worth a very close look is the first-timer from the Puype barn, #11 Resistanceisfutile.  With Bejarano taking the call, this gelding by Ten Most Wanted is assured of getting some play and the work tab indicates more than enough ability to act at this M20000 league.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two on top with Clearly See on top.