SEPTEMBER 27, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $36 investment

1st race: 1, 3, 6

2nd race: 6

3rd race: 3, 5, 7

4th race: 3, 4

5th race: 1, 5, 7, 9

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Roo’s Valentine; 3-Hurricane Callie; 6-Reckless Charm

State-bred maiden juvenile fillies meet over six and one-half furlongs in the opener with four of the six entrants exiting the same race.  #3 Hurricane Callie was second in that event Sept. 2 at Del Mar – she pressed the pace throughout and battled gamely to the wire to be beaten a neck – and with another forward move today the daughter of Comic Strip could earn her diploma.  #6 Reckless Charm, a fading fifth in that race but with back numbers that could win, lands the comfortable outside post and should draft into a soft, pace prompting spot.  #1 Roo’s Valentine, a strong third (beaten a half-length) in that same event in her debut, should move forward today but is stuck on the rail.  We expect the winner to be one of these three but have no real feel for the race so we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Formally Wild

The second race is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer that appears made to order for #6 Formally Wild.  A beaten choice for $16,000 in his first start since joining the Hollendorfer barn, the lightly-raced gelding drops a notch for the money run and should be the controlling speed in a sprint that doesn’t have a whole lot of zip signed on.  A smooth recent half mile workout over this track five days ago should have him on edge and Gonzalez stays aboard.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Pat the Bear; 5-A Colt Following; 7-Justonemorething

A $20,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds carded as the third race looks like a spread with nothing, really, to trust.  #3 Pat the Bear is dropping off a claim – never a good sign – and goes from Miller to Sherlock, so despite back form that makes him the one to beat, the once-speedy gelding may have seen better days.  #5 A Colt Following has won half of his four career starts over the Santa Anita main track but is another class dropper with an unhealthy pattern following a couple of dull efforts vs. much tougher.  Maybe the softer company with wake him up.  #7 Justonemorething earned a career top figure when rallying from far back to beat a slightly softer group at Del Mar; he’s in good form but his deep closing style might not be as effective here as it was down south.  The winner likely will be one of these three but this is a race that might be best left alone.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Mor Spirit; 4-Beaumarchais

The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race, a maiden special weight extended sprint with three of the entrants first-time starters from the Baffert barn.  The best of the trio is #3 Mor Spirit, a $650,000 2-year-old in training purchase last March with a series of sharp local works to his credit.  The son of Eskendereya looks fit and ready for a big effort first crack out of the box.   #4 Beaumarchais was bet like he couldn’t lose (3/5) in his debut but wound fifth, beaten more than 20 lengths.  He has to be better than that and Smith stays aboard for Callaghan so we’ll give the son of Big Drama one more chance.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (2:32 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Buymeabond; 5-Husband’s Folly; 7-Back to Bako; 9-Horizonatalyspeakin

The fifth race is a typical grass grab bag for $40,000 claiming milers; we suggest you use as many as you can afford to.  #5 Husband’s Folly is solid at this level and switches to Bejarano so he may deserve top billing, though he’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win.  #1 Buymeabond, claimed back by Carava and retaining Nakatani, should enjoy a good ground-saving trip from the rail and has won a third of his 27 career starts.  This is a tougher group that he’s used to facing, though.  #9 Horizontalyspeakin won at this level at this distance at Del Mar last month while changing tactics – he was taken back and allowed to produce a late run rather than bust off to the early lead as usual – and if similar tactics are employed he could easily score right back.  #7 Back to Bako has finished off the board in races won by Husband’s Folly and Horizontalyspeakin recently but he’s always liked this turf course and has back form that makes him a price threat. 

SIXTH RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Ashleyluvssugar

  

#1 Ashleyluvssugar should outclass his rivals in the sixth race, the King Pellinore S. at 10 furlongs on turf.  Though beaten as the favorite in the Del Mar H.-G2 in his most recent start, the Game Plan gelding ran a winning race in defeat and today tries a much easier group while returning to his favorite turf course.  We’re expecting Stevens to have him along in plenty of time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Skelton Pass

The seventh race is a first-level allowance main track sprint that should be won by #4 Skelton Pass.  A runaway winner from maidens at Del Mar in his first start since joining the Sadler barn, the Temple City gelding earned a tremendous speed figure, one that if repeated will be more than good enough for as repeat score.  He’s a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.

EIGHTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Twentytwentyvision; 6-Talco; 7-Avanzare; 9-Alert Bay

The featured City of Hope Mile-G2 occupies the featured eighth race slot and has several legitimate contenders.  We’ll go four deep while preferring #7 Avanzare on top.  A winner of seven of 13 career starts including a career-top score from a poor outside draw in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 in his most recent start, the Grand Reward gelding is thoroughly genuine and consistent and should fire another big shot today.  #6 Talco, an excellent second to Avanzare in that same race when missing by a half-length, retains Bejarano and will be rolling late.  #5 Twentytwentyvision continues to improve with racing and gets his toughest test, but could easily be up to it.  #9 Alert Bay, an impressive listed stakes winner at Golden Gate Fields earlier this month, must overcome the outside post but has won three of four over this course, nine of 18 lifetime, and must be respected. 

NINTH RACE (4:43 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Sugar Buzz; 6-Afleet Domination; 7-Palamon

The nightcap is a maiden claiming miler for juveniles in a race filled with class droppers and sprint-to-route runners.  #4 Sugar Buzz, fourth of 10 in his debut, was claimed by O’Neill out of that race and seems likely to improve with that effort behind and the added distance.  He looks like a very live item with the switch to Bejarano.  #6 Afleet Domination exits a pair of straight maiden races, didn’t run badly in either outing, and should fit much better at this level.  #7 Palamon has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for Miyadi (superior stats with this angle) and has speed figures that are going in the right direction.  With another forward move today, the son of Ghostzapper will be right there.  We’ll try to get by using just these three while preferring Sugar Buzz on top.