SEPTEMBER 7, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S $2 PICK-6 SARATOGA WAGERING STRATEGY

$360 investment

6th race: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8

A maiden grass grab bag requiring a huge spread. 

7th race: 4

Uncle Sigh is a no value single by necessity

8th race: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8

Another wide open turf event with several possibilities

9th race: 1, 2

Ironicus is preferred but who will run with Constitution early?

10th race: 1

Hoping Magna Light leaves cleanly from rail and runs straight.

11^th race: 2, 5, 7

Three logical contenders, fairly confident IF we can get this far

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $81 investment

1st race: 6, 8

2nd race: 3, 7, 8

3rd race: 4, 9, 10

4th race: 2, 7, 12

5th race: 2, 6, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Statesman; 8-Waymond Boyd

#8 Waymond Boyd has a steadily improving pattern and the proper style for this elongated sprint trip.  The Baffert-trained colt continues to show improvement in the a.m. and if he produces another forward move in this, his third career start, the son of Distorted Humor will be hard to beat.  #6 Statesman has trained like a decent sort for Sise and we’re expecting a good effort; however, this barn rarely wins with debut runners and it won’t be surprising if this Candy Ride colt is a race away.  We’ll use him in our rolling exotics while preferring Waymond Boyd on top.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Boompa; 7-Fancy Shoes; 8-Dive Down

This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer appears chaotic and contains nothing to trust.  Small ticket players can use the three listed above in rolling exotic play but this is a race that you probably should pass or “buy.”  #8 Dive Down stretches out for new trainer Carava while retaining Nakatani; his only prior two-turn race resulted in a win at Turf Paradise, for whatever that’s worth.  He’s a fit on numbers and looks as good as any at 5-1 on the morning line.  #3 Boompa won his debut and really hasn’t gotten close since; however, he exits a much tougher race, retains Baze, and has competitive speed figures.  Also, he continues to look good in the a.m. so at least we know he’s healthy.  #7 Fancy Shoes returns to the main track, drops to his lowest level ever and fits with these off his maiden claiming win three races back.  He seems to be the most dangerous of the closing types and Perez knows him well.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-One of the Greats; 9-Golden Atlantic; 10-George Zip

This rare five furlong turf sprint for maidens contains three fast-working first-time starters, and since the known element looks fairly average we’re expecting the winner to be one of the three.  #10 George Zip is bred for much speed and turf, too, and seems cranked up for a big effort first crack out of the box.  The son of City Zip lands Bejarano and may be quick enough to overcome the extreme outside draw.  #4 One of the Greats is an Indian Charlie gelding from the Miller barn with a series of smart drills at San Luis Rey Downs.  He was purchased in the 2014 March OBS Sale for $220,000 after breezing the fastest furlong at the preview session, 9 4/5 seconds.  #9 Golden Atlantic hails from a barn that does well with first timers and this Stormy Atlantic gelding has flashed plenty of zip in recent gate works.  Prat was aboard for Glatt in that recent bullet 46 1/5 seconds gate work.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Cherubim; 7-Melatonin; 12-Big Macher

#12 Big Macher is clearly the class of the field but hasn’t been out since finishing fifth in the Dubai Golden Shaheen and may not be totally cranked up.  We’ll use him but actually prefer the recently gelded #2 Cherubim on top.  Freshened since opening week of the meeting, the speedy son of Henny Hughes has shown his old zip in recent a.m. workouts and if he can avoid trouble from the rail he’ll definitely be a major factor throughout.  #7 Melatonin was visually impressive beating a lesser field in his recent comeback for Hofmans and has trained well since, so despite the relatively quick turnaround (three weeks) he’s probably worth tossing at 12-1 on the morning line.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Cherubim on top.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-King of Jazz; 6-Nahem; 8-What a View

This grass grab bag probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play so use as many as your budget will allow.  #6 Nahem comes off a game score over this course in what has proven to be a productive race and was claimed back by Hollendorfer.  He returns protected in this entry-level allowance affair while retaining Prat and should fire another big shot today.  #8 What a View is improving with racing for Black and just won a sharp state-bred maiden affair with a strong speed figure while on the lead throughout.  He’ll probably have to stalk today but if he continues to move forward he’ll be a threat right back under Desormeaux.  #2 King of Jazz is the likely pace-setter despite turning back from a mini-marathon.  The Palma-trained son of Giant’s Causeway is a five year old with only six career starts, so he still has some upside and ran very well when second under these conditions earlier this meeting.  He’s worth including at 6-1 on the morning line.  We’ll give Nahem a very slight edge on top but this is a deep, difficult, and competitive event.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Seaside Glory; 9-C. C. Zipp; 11-Notorious Nicole

Most Hollendorfer-trained maidens improve considerably between their first and second starts and we expect #5 Seaside Glory to do just that. Third in a hot race in her debut, the daughter of Speightstown has trained extremely well since that race and should produce a major forward move today.  The switch to Smith is another positive move. Hollendorfer’s other starter, #9 C. C. Zipp, appears to be a progressive sort as well and is a “must use: at 5-1 on the morning line.  She was almost four clear of the rest when second over this track and distance last month.   #11 Notorious Nicole breezed a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, the fastest in the June OBS Sale, and then brought $350,000 at auction.  She was given a solid foundation of longer, slower drills at San Luis Rey Downs by Miller in recent weeks and should be plenty fit and ready for a big run first time out.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Seaside Glory slightly on top.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Eileen’s Girl; 3-Sassy Ashley

On pure form this appears to be a completely wide open maiden turf miler for juvenile fillies; we’ll sink or swim with just two that have impressed the most in the morning and should most appreciate the race conditions.  #3 Sassy Ashley certainly is bred to run long on grass (English Channel) and appears fit and ready following two recent powerful recent six furlong main track drills for Baltas and Bejarano.  However, based we’ll give a slight preference to #3 Eileen’s Girl, a $280,000 yearling by Medaglia d’Oro from the multiple stakes winning grass mare Ciao, who has done everything right for Eurton in the a.m. and gets the rail and hot riding Gutierrez.  There should be plenty of value here at 8-1 on the morning line, especially in rolling exotic play, and it’s for that reason – she’ll be the better price of the two – that we’ll slightly prefer Eileen’s Girl on top.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 7-Blameitonthelaw; 5-Nyquist

#5 Nyquist seems the logical top choice and should go a bit lower than his morning line of 5/2.  A winner of both of his starts, most recently with complete authority by more than five widening lengths in the Best Pal Stakes, the son of Uncle Mo continues to impress in the a.m. for O’Neill and has the ideal style for this seven furlong trip.  #4 Mt Veeder originally was our second selection but has been scratched, so we'll substitute #7 Blameitonthelaw.  A big figure winner in his debut, the Sadler-trained colt should adore this extended sprint trip and if moves forward off that race - and there's no reason to think he can't - he'll perhaps give Nyquist something to be concerned about.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while recognizing that Nyquist is strictly the one to beat and the most likely winner.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Gomo; 3-Jakaby Jade; 9-Imflatoutsweet

This is an unusually strong edition of the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes and should produce a starter or two for the Breeders’ Cup in this division.  #1 Gomo won her maiden on grass at Santa Anita and did so in a common gallop; she was eased up from the furlong pole to the wire while displaying flawless turf action.  Shortened to a sprint and returned to dirt in the Sorrento Stakes in her next start, she kept to her task and managed to finish a willing second behind Pretty N Cool while clearly unsuited by the conditions.  Today, back at her preferred distance over her preferred surface, the daughter of Uncle Mo should be very tough to beat.  Gomo’s uncoupled stablemate, #3 Jakaby Jade, was visually impressive beating maidens on turf at Lingfield in England in July and looked really good in a bullet workout around dogs on turf here four days ago.  She gets Lasix and Prat for her U.S. debut and appears extremely well-meant at 6-1 on the morning line.  #9 Imflatoutsweet already has won over this course and distance when breaking her maiden in sharp style last month for Hollendorfer.  A rangy filly with plenty of scope, the daughter of Sky Mesa has considerable upside and should continue to progress with distance and experience.  We’ll give Gomo the edge on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Glory; 10-Unforgettable U

#10 Unforgettable U was more than six lengths clear of the third horse when nosed out by Ben’s Duchess in a fast, highly-rated race in her first start since joining the Baltas barn and has come back to work impressively since that race to indicate she remains right on edge.  The daughter of Tale of the Cat will be hard to beat if she repeats her last start.  #1 Glory, away since April after being overmatched in the Santa Anita Oaks, returns at her proper level for Hollendorfer and has looked fit and ready in a series of recent sharp drills.  She’s the one to fear most under Smith, rail and all.  We also had planned to include #7 Moyo Honey but she is a late scratch.