SEPTEMBER 5, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $108 investment

1st race: 2, 3, 6

2nd race: 2, 7

3rd race: 1, 5, 6

4th race: 1, 7, 10

5th race: 6, 7, 8, 11

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Mesa Sky; 3-Osceola Pond; 6-British Bulldog

Lots of question marks in this maiden two-turn turf event for 2-year-olds.  #2 Mesa Sky, a first-time gelding, was a beaten choice in his debut sprinting but has trained very well since for Miller, switches to Espinoza, and stretches out to a distance and surface that should move him up.  Got a feeling this one is considerably better than shown, so let’s give him the edge in an open affair.  #3 Osceola Pond ran well under these conditions from a poor post in late July and is another that has trained nicely since.  Stevens stays aboard for Proctor and should have this Cape Blanco gelding within striking range throughout.  Proctor has another contender in #6 British Bulldog.  The son of Successful Appeal breezed a quarter in 21 1/5 seconds at the OBS April sale and then brought $210,000 at auction, so he clearly has some ability and may offer good price value at 10-1 on the morning line.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Papaslilprincess; 7-Two Step Flor

As is often the case in these moderate claiming races, condition and health are just important if not more so than past (or even recent) form.  #7 Two Step Flor has generally been a consistent performer throughout her career and she did win a $20,000 claimer last month here while earning a better than par speed figure for this level.  However, she was a voided claim that day due to unsoundness and returned to Martin’s barn; today she’s shows up for $12,500 and it’s anybody’s guess as to what her present state of health is.  She does have two works over this track since her last race and Bejarano stays aboard, so if she has one good one left she’ll certainly be hard to beat.  #2 Papaslilprincess, a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt class dropper for Mathis, has a strong look if she repeats her race before last, a good runner-up effort in a $20,000 claimer at Los Alamitos.  She switches to Prat and will be tough if she’s feeling up to it.  These are the two we’ll use in our rolling exotics but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.  We’ve rated this race “C” and really have no plans to participate.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Majestic Heat; 5-Indecise; 6-Doodetta

This turf event is loaded with speed so we’ll use three closers and hope the race-shape develops as we expect it will.  #1 Majestic Heat was in too tough in the Del Mar Oaks but didn’t run badly at all and with three weeks off since that effort she should come back to fire her best shot today.  The switch to Bejarano can be viewed in a positive light and her closing style should be very effective in race in which the pace should be quick, or at least, contested.  The Abrams-trained filly is fast on figures and apparently made of steel (this is hear fifth start of the meeting).  #5 Indecise is a little too one-paced to thoroughly embrace but with some help up front the Mandella-trained mare should be able to produce a decent late bid.  She’s hit the board in nine of 13 career starts and is worth using in the exotics at 5-1 on the morning line.  Price players should take a close look at #6 Doodetta.  She’s one above her conditions, but that’s not a negative; Drysdale obviously wants to run her back on this turf course and though unproven around two turns the daughter of Wildcat Heir certainly has the pedigree and running style to handle the extra ground.  We love the switch to Nakatani and at 15-1 on the morning she simply has to be used.  We’ll put Majestic Heat slightly on top but triple the race in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Katy Drama; 7-Bayonet; 10-It Girl

Nothing in this bottom-rung maiden claiming miler for fillies and mares is trustworthy so we’ll take the three class droppers and hope that at least one of them reacts favorably to the easier company.  #1 Katy Drama plummets to the bottom, returns to dirt, and lands the good inside post, so she should have every chance to display considerable improvement off her last pair (which, in this context, weren’t all that bad).  Both of her previous dirt races were non-competitive, but that was a long time against much tougher so we won’t hold it against her.  #7 Bayonet is another dropping to the bottom for the first time and since she’s a solid fit on figures she deserves a strong look.  Gutierrez will have her doing here best work late.  #10 It Girl has run one prior main track race (over a wet fast surface last winter at Santa Anita) so she’s an unknown under these conditions but the big class drop certainly helps as does the major switch to Bejarano.  She’s another that figures to be heard from in the final furlong.  We’ll give a very slight edge on top to Katy Drama but our best advice is to treat this race cautiously.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Arabian Leopard; 7-Tristan’s Trilogy; 8-Basinca; 11-Justin Squared

#6 Arabian Leopard has been burning up the track in the a.m. for Baffert and this $575,000 OBS purchase looks cranked up and ready to win at first asking.  During the preview session, he breezed a quarter in 20 4/5 seconds, the fastest in the June sale. Baffert’s other entrant, #11 Justin Squared, off the also-eligible list, also is a major contender; he’s bred to be very quick and has displayed extreme speed in the morning.  #7 Tristan’s Trilogy shows an impressive series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs and is another fast-working graduate of the OBS sales, having been purchased for $530,000 after breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat.  He looks like a live item for Miller under Espinoza.  #8 Basinca is a $190,000 graduate of the Timonium sale where he breezed a furlong in an excellent 10 2/5 seconds, displaying good speed and action.  Prat has been out to work him for O’Neill and the son of Proud Citizen should come out running.  We’ll give Arabian Leopard a slight edge but this has the makings of one of the hottest 2-year-old races of the meeting.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Hollywood Don; 6-Getoffmyback; 10-Tiz a Billy

#3 Hollywood Don and #10 Tiz a Billy finished noses apart in a fast, highly-rated maiden juvenile affair over this course and distance last month and both return in this stakes race with an excellent chance to run one-two again.  ‘Don took advantage of his good rail post to make the lead in that event and doggedly kept on to win extra gamely in a race that was run 1 4/5 seconds faster than the split of the race.  The son of Tapit may not be on the lead today – there’s plenty of other speed – but there’s no reason he can’t stalk and win under Blanc if that’s what’s required.  Tiz a Billy must leave from the 10-hole but he may be good enough to overcome it.  A strong recent series of drills at Los Alamitos indicates he’s moving forward for Koriner and the switch to Bejarano is a positive factor as well.  Miller, who trains Hollywood Don, has another major player in the race with #6 Getoffmyback, a son of Good Journey out of a mare by Decarchy and therefore bred on both sides of his pedigree to move up considerably on turf.  He’ll have to be a whole lot better on the lawn than he is on dirt, but at 20-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in as a potential tote buster.  Let’s go with Hollywood Don slightly on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: A

Single: 6-Rockport Kat

#6 Rockport Kat earned a giant speed figure when breaking his maiden in his second career start for a high-priced tag and the race (and high number) was verified when runner-up Skeltons Pass came back to win his next start against straight maidens in highly impressive fashion.  ‘Kat has been kept on edge with a series of sharp workouts since that late July victory and returns protected in a first-level allowance event over a seven furlong distance that should be perfect for his stalking style.  We’ll make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his 7/2 morning line odds.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Frandontjudge; 5-Tiz a Kiss; 8-Spirit of Ten

#2 Frontdontjudge has really gotten good of late and after beating state-bred first level allowance foes (and before that a $32,000 claiming field) over this course earlier this meeting, she tackles open entry-level allowance company today.  Gonzalez stays aboard for Hollendorfer and should have this daughter of Benchmark in an ideal, second flight, ground-saving spot.  Her numbers continue to rise and with another slight forward move she’ll be right there again.  #5 Tiz a Kiss, now in the Baltas barn, has been first or second in six of 11 career starts and just missed in a photo over this course and distance last month.  She’s reunited with Desormeaux, who has won on her in the past, and looks the most dangerous of the deep closing types.  #8 Spirit of Ten seeks her third straight win for D’Amato and she, like a few of these, has numbers that continue to rise.  She can make the running or stalk and win, so Baze has the option to evaluate the race-shape during the early stages.  A steady healthy work tab since her most recent win in late July is another plus.  In a tough, contentious race, we’ll give Frandontjudge a very slight edge on top while using all three in our rolling exotics.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: A-

Use: 5-Surfside Tiara; 11-Songbird

#11 Songbird was as visually impressive as you could possibly be when winning her debut with a strong speed figure.  She broke running from the rail (not the place to be during the early part of this meeting) and just toyed with her rivals while winning with plenty left.  Those that were behind her in that race have not come back to frank the form, but that’s their problem, not hers.  The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro lands the cozy outside post, continues to impress in the morning, and retains Smith, who can pretty much pick his spot during the three-eighths of a mile run from the gate to the far turn.  Her uncoupled stablemate, #5 Surfside Tiara, may be the one to fear most.  The daughter of Scat Daddy finished like a freight train to graduate in her second career start over this track last month while giving the appearance that the longer they go, the better she’ll like it.  Bejarano stays aboard will give this filly the patient ride she clearly prefers.  The edge goes to Songbird – we’ll have extra tickets with her on top – but use both in rolling exotic play.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Unusual Taste; 2-Patentar; 5-Atomic Rule; 8-Aotearoa

This is a typical grass grab bag with a number of possibilities.  The best trip among the logical contenders wins. #2 Patentar ran okay without being knocked about in his U.S. in a tough race and can only improve while getting an extra furlong to work with today.  Bejarano stays aboard for Callaghan and we’re expecting this English import to be fitter, stronger, and sharper today.  He’s too big of a number at 6-1 on the morning line.  #8 Aotearoa removes blinkers (again) and seems to be coming around now for Powell.  He should be part of a comfortable pace throughout and while nine furlongs might be stretching his limit, he’s strong on numbers and has a very healthy pattern that should lead to a major effort.  #1 Ultimate Taste, first off the claim for Mathis (excellent stats with this angle) lands the good rail, retains Gonzalez, and should fire his usual good shot.  At 6-1 on the morning line, he really won’t have to improve much to win.  #5 Atomic Rule is tough as nails and loves to beat you (nine wins in 24 career starts).  He has an excellent stalking style, two nice workouts since his most recent win, and is a solid fit on numbers.  He’s another 6-1 shot that belongs somewhere on your ticket.  The very slight edge on top goes to Patentar but this clearly is a spread race in rolling exotic play.

ELEVENTH RACE (7:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Ain’t Misbehavin; 7-Formally Wild; 10-Wicker Man

This is typical messy nightcap that could be won by just about anybody.  We’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  #7 Formally Wild is now in the Hollendorfer barn so let’s start with him.  The Offlee Wild gelding is a second-off-a-layoff play taking a drastic class drop and this also will be his first try ever on dirt.  His grass numbers are strong, for whatever that’s worth, and with the major switch to Gonzalez, ‘Wild seems as good as any and better than most.  #10 Wicker Man won at first asking in June and finally makes it back to the races unprotected by Sadler.  He’s clearly not well regarded by his connections but he’s a fit on numbers and has the ability to finish, so we’ll make him a “must use.”  #5 Ain’t Misbehavin drops again in class and has back figures that put him in the picture.  He’s going from open $25,000 to $16,000 non-winners of two and should be a late threat with Graham staying aboard for Puype.