SEPTEMBER 6, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $27 investment

1st race: 1, 3, 4

2nd race: 5, 6, 10

3rd race: 4, 6, 7

4th race: 4

5th race: 1, 3

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-My Silver Cat; 3-Send Me a Sign; 4-Audra

#3 Send Me a Sign had no chance in her debut.  The Ellis-trained filly was taken back and allowed to settle, commenced her rally into the lane and was starting to pick up steam when she was eliminated by a bolting filly at the head of the lane.  Would she have won?  No, but she would have looked a lot better than her poor running line shows.  Exiting the strongest maiden special weight race of the meeting, the daughter of Include appears to have the proper style for this extended sprint and with Smith riding her back, she offers legitimate price value at 8-1 on the morning.  #4 Audra is another second time starter that is likely much better than her debut shows.  Fifth after breaking in the air and being forced to steady early, the D’Amato-trained filly has come back to work well since that race and if she leaves with her field today she should improve considerably.  #1 My Silver is a first-timer with a series of good works at San Luis Rey Downs for Miller; she’s bred to be quick and if she can leave with her field from the rail, she could be a strong factor.  All three should be used in rolling exotic play; at the price, we’ll have extra tickets in the straight pool using Send Me a Sign.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 5-Noble Kent; 6-Accelerant; 10-American Blend

This bottom-rung main track claiming mile looks fairly wide and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll use three but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.  #5 Noble Kent, a solid third over this track and distance in a similar spot in his first start since vanning down from the Bay Area, has shown plenty of spark in the morning since that race and will likely produce a forward move.  Graham should have him running on strongly late.  #6 Accelerant, first off the claim for Miyadi (strong stats with this angle), comes off a useful win at this level and if he can turn in two alike he should be a strong threat right back.  Pedroza stays aboard.  #10 American Blend gets the worst of the draw but this ex-classer drops to his lowest level ever in his first outing since May and if he’s feeling halfway good he’ll make his presence felt.  We’ve rated this race a “C” so we suggest you play conservatively or pass the race.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Ben’s Duchess; 6-Baruta; 7-Tribal Gal

This main track stakes stakes for fillies and mares looks fairly evenly matched and rather than split hairs we’ll simply use the three main contenders.  #6 Baruta couldn’t handle Taris in the Rancho Bernardo but in a race without pace she did as well as she could.  This is a considerably softer spot and if she continues her consistent form she’ll be right there.  #4 Ben’s Duchess earned a giant figure in her most recent win and today gets a bit of a class test as she moves into overnight Stakes Company.  She really won’t have to improve much to win.  #7 Tribal Gal is much slower on numbers than the other two but she’s a race mare with a winning spirit and should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip under Stevens. 

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: 4-Ipray

Although she was beaten nine lengths when a distant second in a similar spot last month, #4 Ipray actually ran decently and appeared to find her best stride too late.  Back at the same non-winners of two $16,000 level today, the lightly-raced daughter of Hold Me Back retains Bejarano and should be along in plenty of time.  There’s a huge amount of value at her morning line of 7/2 if you can get it.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Second Summer; 3-Mixio

#3 Mixio ran quite well in a fast, highly-rated race in his debut earlier this season, finishing a solid fourth after looming a strong threat in mid-stretch.  He’ll be better today with that effort to tighten him up and the Gary Mandella-trained son of Arch has looked sharp in the morning since.  Prat stays aboard and from a comfortable inside draw should have this colt in an ideal stalking spot.  #1 Second Summer, a solid second in the same race Mixio exits, is another with a good recent and figures tough from the rail under Bejarano.  However, Mixio may have a bit more upside.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference to Mixio.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Devoted One; 4-Lucky Folie; 9-Spindle

#3 Devoted One has done everything like a very good prospect for D’Amato and looks fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box.  The daughter of Broken Vow has good speed but can finish as well and if she can avoid any kind of trouble she’ll be hard to beat.  #4 Lucky Folie is another promising newcomer; the Mandella-trained daughter of Distorted Humor has done everything asked and looks prepared for a top try first crack out of the box.  She’s better than her 8-1 morning line and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play/  #9 Spindle has a series of good drills at San Luis Rey Downs for Miller and the daughter of Hard Spun should come out firing.  Toss her in as well.  All three are contenders but top billing must go to Devoted One.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Prospect Park

#2 Prospect Park looked super in his recent grass debut, winning the La Jolla Stakes for fun against essentially this level of competition.  Today’s extra half furlong will make him even tougher, and at equal weights the son of Tapit should be a very short priced favorite and we suspect will go lower than his 8/5 morning line.  He’s a no-value rolling exotic single.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Just Kidding; 4-Skip Tony

#1 Just Kidding lost all chance at the start in his last race, so toss it out.  Since then the Eurton-trained colt has trained quite well so we’re expecting he’ll rebound with his best effort today.  Drawn nicely inside while retaining Bejarano, he can beat this field with a repeat of his race before last.  #4 Skip Tony, first or second in 20 of 43 career starts, has been freshened by Hollendorfer since mid-June and figures to be dangerous from off the pace.  The edge goes to Just Kidding but both should be used in rolling exotic play.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Prize Exhibit; 8-Queen of the Sand; 9-Notte d’Oro

These long-distance filly and mare turf specialists seem to take turns.  Maybe it’s #9 Notte d’Oro’s turn today.  She was 31-1 against essentially this same group after coming in from Canterbury in the Mabee Stakes last month and didn’t run badly at all, finishing sixth but beaten just over a length.  Pratt stays aboard, blinkers are added for the first time and a sharp recent work should have this Stidham-trained filly spot on.  Let’s try to blow out the tote board at 20-1 on the morning line.  #6 Prize Exhibit tackles older foes today for the first time and though she was beaten at 7/5 in the Del Mar Oaks she ran well enough to earn her usual sharp figure.  Gonzalez will have her running on strongly late.  #8 Queen of the Sand, a tough beat-second in her last in graded stakes company, is due for some good luck and makes a switch to good turf rider Graham.  She’s another who’ll be bearing down in the final furlong.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; it sure would be nice if we could get Notte d’Oro home.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Roman Tizzy; 4-Tulira Castle; 8-Mistaken Identity

#8 Mistaken Identity, first off the claim for Kitchingman, is much better than his last race shows and stretches out for his new connections while moving up a notch and switching to Pedroza.  If he can make the lead, he’ll be dangerous.  #1 Roman Tizzy looked decent winning a $20,000 claimer over this track and distance last month and earned a career stop number in the process.  He’ll be tough right back, for sure.  #4 Tulira Castle, claimed in his last pair and now in the Ellis stable for his California debut, has been first or second in 10 of 17 career starts and is a solid fit on speed figures.  If he can transfer his Midwest form to the Southern California circuit, he’ll be in the thick of it at 9/2 on the morning line.