JEFF SIEGEL'S BREEDERS’ CUP ELITE-8 RANKINGS

Updated Sept. 1, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 – American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 – Beholder (R. Mandella)

3 – Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

4 – Gleneagles-Ir (A. O’Brien)

5 – Keen Ice (D. Romans)

6 – Tonalist (C. Clement)

7 – Effinex (J. Jerkens)

8 – Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers, American Pharoah remains tops in this division, though his edge over Beholder has diminished dramatically.  The constant cross-country shipping finally took its toll; we suspect ‘Pharoah will be given the next 60 days to regain his strength and be trained up to the Classic without leaving Santa Anita.  Beholder has benefitted greatly from a conservative 2015 campaign and most likely will have what amounts to be an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta Stakes Sept. 26 at Santa Anita as her final prep.  New to the list is the brilliant European colt Gleneagles-IR, undefeated this year and the winner of three consecutives Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and most recently the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.  He’s never been farther than a mile and obviously has never raced on dirt, but he’s a Galileo colt out of a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway and O’Brien obviously believes he’ll be suited the Breeders’ Cup Classic conditions.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 – Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)

2 – Dortmund (B. Baffert)

3 – Upstart (R. Violette, Jr.)

4 – Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

5 – Red Vine (C. Clement)

6 – Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

7 – Bay of Plenty (K. McLaughlin)

8 – Bradester (E. Kenneally)

ANALYSIS – The BC Dirt Mile always has been considered to be something of a BC Classic consolation prize for those horses who fall just below Classic quality or who find 10 furlongs out of their range.  The problem is there are so few significant two-turn mile races in North America that the division never has a chance to develop its own identity.  Liam’s Map could be superior under these conditions but won’t have a chance to show it until Breeders’ Cup day.  Dortmund, unraced since the Preakness, breezed a half in 50 seconds at Del Mar Aug. 31 and will have time to squeeze in a prep race if Baffert chooses to.  We’ve arbitrarily placed Upstart in this division; at this stage this is the spot that affords him the best chance for success.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 – Flintshire-GB (A. Fabre)

2 – Red Rifle (T. Pletcher)

3 – Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

4 – The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

5 – Big John B (P. D’Amato)

6 – Twilight Eclipse (M. Maker)

7 – Ashleyluvssugar (P. Eurton)

8 – Force the Pass (A. Goldberg)

ANALYSIS – Flintshire-GB toyed with the best North American-based runners in the Sword Dancer and last year’s BC Turf runner-up will be a short priced favorite to win the 2015 edition unless there are other European-based horses of his ilk planning on making the trip.  He’s a firm-ground specialist who likely will run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe if the ground is suitable before returning for the Breeders’ Cup.  Red Rifle clearly has distanced himself from the American contingent but the Euro’s remain in a different league and could easily dominate the race depending who and how many are sent over.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 – Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 – Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 – Rock Fall (T. Pletcher)

4 – Work All Week (R. Brueggeman)

5 – The Big Beast (A. Dutrow)

6 – Limousine Liberal (B. Colebrook)

7 – Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)

8 – Masochistic (R. Ellis)

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  His connections know the pace scenario in the BC Sprint will be considerably more intense, which is why they’re looking at the BC Mile as an alternative.   However, we expect ‘Zone will remain in this division.  Runhappy was freaky fast in the King’s Bishop and is absolutely for real.  Two months removed from Breeders’ Cup weekend, this is a salty group with defending champ Work All Week apparently back to his best form.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 – Wise Dan (C. Lopresti)

2 – Esoterique (A. Fabre)

3 – Ironicus (C. McGaughey)

4 – Mshawish (T. Pletcher)

5 – Seek Again (W. Mott)

6 – Avanzare (T. Proctor)

7 – Grand Arch (B. Lynch)

8 – Prospect Park (C. Sise, Jr.)

ANALYSIS – Two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, away since last October but training like his old self at Keeneland, is aiming for the Woodbine Mile Sept. 13 for his return to competition.  Esoterique won a “win and you’re in” race in France earlier this month and at age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre.  She certainly doesn’t figure to be the only high class European shipper for this race but as of now she’s the only one confirmed. 

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 – Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 – Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)

3 – Untapable (S. Asmussen)

4 – Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

5 – Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

6 – Stellar Wind (J. Sadler)

7 – I’m a Chatterbox (L. Jones)

8 – Curalina (T. Pletcher)

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast bypassed Saratoga and should be fresh for the fall.  She’s won seven of 11, however, one of her defeats came in her only start at Keeneland when she finished fourth in the Madison last spring.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  The three year old fillies are good, not great.  With Beholder now pointing for the Classic this division has become fairly wide open.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 – Dacita-CH (C. Brown)

2 – Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)

3 – Secret Gesture (R. Beckett)

4 – Tepin (M. Casse)

5 – Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

6 – Kitten’s Queen (C. Brown)

7 – Watsdachances (C. Brown)

8 – My Miss Sophia (W. Mott)

ANALYSIS – Secret Gesture, who was disqualified from first in the Beverly D Stakes and was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year, is the only European-based runner listed but you know the names of several more contenders will surface in the next few weeks.  Dacita, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa while verifying her superior Chilean form.  Four of the eight fillies and mares listed above are trained by Chad Brown.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 – Taris (S. Callaghan)

2 – Unbridled Forever (D. Stewart)

3 – Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)

4 – Fantastic Style (B. Baffert)

5 – Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher)

6 – Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)

7 – Stonetastic (K. Breen)

8 – Kiss to Remember (M. Wolfson)

ANALYSIS – Taris returned to winning form at Del Mar with an easy victory in the Rancho Bernardo Stakes while showing the ability to stalk and win, rather than just blast to the front.  The best race of her career came over the Keeneland main track in last year’s Raven Run Stakes.  Unbridled Forever and Cavorting have styles that are ideally suited for seven furlongs and are top class.  Fantastic Style is recovering from a minor injury and will need to resume serious training in the next couple of weeks to remain under consideration.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 – Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 – Thieves Guild (J. Toner)

3 – Shore Runner (J. Sharp)

4 – Ready to Rye (T. Albertrani)

5 – Undrafted (W. Ward)

6 – Ageless (A. Delacour)

7 – Katie’s Eyes (M. Stidham)

8 – Holy Lute (J. Cassidy)

ANALYSIS – With her victory in the Smart and Fancy Stakes at Saratoga on Sunday, Lady Shipman now is a perfect seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs (this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint is carded at five and one-half furlongs).  She’s very fast on speed figures and can win on the lead or from a stalking spot.  We have not included any Europeans on this list and doubt they’ll be much of a factor.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 – Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)

2 – Nyquist (D. O’Neill)

3 – Saratoga Mischief (T. Pletcher)

4 – Blameitonthelaw (J. Sadler)

5 – Magna Light (R. Rodriguez)

6 – Swipe (K. Desormeaux)

7 – Mrazek (D. O’Neill)

8 – Sudden Surprise (T. Pletcher)

ANALYSIS – Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special and gives every indication that he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase.  Nyquist is undefeated in two starts and actually is faster on figures than Exaggerator but is less certain to progress around two turns.  He’ll run next in the 7F Del Mar Futurity-G1 where he’ll face Blameitonthelaw, a hot debut maiden winner by Blame with terrific upside.  We’re learn more about the Eastern-based juveniles in the Hopeful S-G1, which, like the Del Mar Futurity, is scheduled Sept. 7.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 – Tap to It (R. Nicks)

2 – Just Wicked (S. Asmussen)

3 – Off the Tracks (R. Rodriguez)

4 – Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

5 – Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

6 – Pretty N Cool (B. Baffert)

7 – One Last Shot (B. Baffert)

8 – Width (C. Clement)

ANALYSIS – Tap to It won her debut last month at Saratoga like a potential superstar and she has the pedigree to be better going long than short.  Just Wicked, like Tap to It, is a daughter of Tapit and her victory in the Adirondack Stakes gave reason to believe that distance won’t be an issue for her, either.  Off the Tracks is unbeaten and as a stakes winning daughter of Curlin, she, too, should not flinch when stretched out.  And Rachel’s Valentina, by Bernardini from Rachel Alexandra, was just getting warmed up at the end of her six furlong debut maiden win at Spa last month.

(Note:  Breeders’ Cup rankings for Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf will begin later this month)