SEPTEMBER 26, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $60 investment

1st race: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8

2nd race: 2, 6

3rd race: 1, 2

4th race: 1, 8, 9

5th race: 4, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Pass – No Play

The Santa Anita Autumn season presents 19 programs that includes a superior opening day card.   Several critical Breeders’ Cup prep events are featured today along with a number of excellent rolling exotic wagering opportunities during the 11-race offering. 

The program actually starts off slowly with an inscrutable $50,000 maiden claiming sprint for state-bred two-year-olds.”  #7 Redneck Crazy will be the favorite after earning a better-than-par figure when third against open (non-Calbred) company last time out; however, the Sherlock-trained colt lacks the kind of early zip you’d prefer to see on this main track and probably offers little in the way of value.  #8 Sorcerer’s Wildcat exits the same race and finished four lengths behind ‘Crazy; he has more early zip and perhaps a bit more upside than ‘Crazy but didn’t change leads and wasn’t visually impressive in that effort so he’ll be hard to back with confidence.  Clever trainer Miyadi sends out a couple of slow-working first time starters in #5 Prairie Pizazz and #6 Hopelessly in Love but since most maidens from this barn run a bit better than they work you have to give them at least a cursory glance.  #2 Little Mustard lumbered home third in a modest affair at Los Alamitos two weeks ago but may have a bit more room for improvement then some of the others.  Rolling exotic players should spread, spread spread.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-C. C. Zipp; 6-Sudden Fame

The second race is a potentially decent straight maiden sprint for juvenile fillies.  #6 Sudden Fame has been burning up the track in the a.m. for Mandella (just fair with debut runners), could be a good one, and must be used.  The daughter of Congrats was a $275,000 yearling so you know she’s a looker.  #2 C. C. Zipp isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but she continues to improve steadily with experience and will likely produce another forward move today.   These are the two we’ll prefer with Sudden Fame given a slight edge on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Desert Steel; 2-Curlin’s Fox

The first added money event of the program, the $70,000 Unzip Me Stakes down the hill for sophomore fillies, came up unusually strong, with #2 Curlin’s Fox and #1 Desert Steel faster than par for this level and both are razor sharp and improving.  Curlin’s Fox is a course specialist coming off a career top score in the Sandy Blue S. at Del Mar and she continues to impress in the morning for Gaines.  Desert Steel has found her niche as a turf sprinter and couldn’t have been more impressive in a pair of scintillating victories over the Del Mar lawn against older foes.  She’s failed to hit the board in two prior starts down this hillside course but she’s a whole lot better now than she was then.  ‘Fox gets the edge on top because of here proven form down the hill, but we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Kenjisstorm; 8-Swiss Cheese; 9-Hot Lightning

The fourth race is a starter’s allowance sprint for $40,000 non-winners of two and seems like a logical spot for #8 Swiss Cheese.  A very impressive bottom-rung maiden claiming winner two runs back (and claimed out of that race), the son of Swiss Yodeler finished second in a similar starter’s race at Del Mar in his next outing in what was a fast, highly-rated affair.  This event doesn’t look as strong, so if he maintains his form the Miyadi-trained gelding will be hard to beat.  #1 Kenjisstorm was badly overmatched in the Pirate’s Bounty S. last time out but his maiden claiming win over this track and distance last April charts very well with these and this will be his first start with blinkers.  He could be the controlling speed if he leaves cleanly form the rail.  #9 Hot Lightning, a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt class dropper for Belvoir, lands the cozy outside post, retains Talamo, and has a prior win over this main track.  He should at least hit the board.

FIFTH RACE (2:32 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Nyquist; 8-Mt. Veeder

Last year’s FrontRunner Stakes was won by American Pharoah.  Not sure there’s anything in here quite that good, but certainly #4 Nyquist looks 3/5 on paper as the unbeaten son of Uncle Mo tries two turns for the first time.  There’s no reason he won’t handle the increase in trip and his numbers, while not off the charts, are legitimate.  #8 Mt Veeder may be the controlling speed and the son of Ghostzapper gives every indication that he’ll continue to improve with distance and experience.  He has upside that most of the others don’t, so if you’re looking to try to beat the favorite or at least save with a bit of a price, this Baffert-trained colt fits the bill. 

SIXTH RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Native Treasure; 4-Mal Verde; 6-Hawkedon; 13-Chips All In

The Pick-6 begins with the sixth race, a highly competitive slalom event that requires a spread.  Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play.  If he’s lucky enough to draw in from the also-eligible list, #13 Chips All In should be a major player.  A genuine and versatile veteran with a particular fondness for this turf course, the son of North Light was several lengths the best when third after an impossible start and a wide trip against a similar group over a mile at Del Mar last time out.  He’s trained well since for Brocklebank, retains Quinonez, and, assuming he starts, should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot outside.  A strong case can be made for several of the others, including #3 Mal Verde, tough at any distance and a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course; #6 Hawkedon, getting his favorite course and trip after a two month freshening for a barn that has excellent stats with this angle; and #2 Native Treasure, a strong fit off his runner-up effort at this level two runs back.

SEVENTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Beholder

Today’s rolling exotic free bingo space, #9 Beholder, will be 1/5 at post time in the seventh race, the Zenyatta Stakes, as the brilliant daughter of Henny Hughes preps for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in what should be a stroll in the park vs. a group of good, but hopelessly overmatched older fillies and mares.  Enjoy the show; there are still some excellent wagering opportunities later in the card.

EIGHTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Songbird

#5 Songbird figures to be another very short priced favorite – maybe not 1/5 but close – in the eighth race, the Chandelier Stakes, for juvenile fillies.  Unbeaten in two starts including the Del Mar Debutante by more than five widening lengths, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should have no issues with two turns, and with the scratching of #1 Pretty N Cool looks likely to control this race from gate to wire.  #7 Land Over Sea seems like the second filly in the field, but the exacta to her won’t pay anything, so let’s just single the Hollendorfer filly and move on.

NINTH RACE (4:43 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Lady Pimpernel; 8-Hard Not to Like; 11-Fanticola

The ninth race, the Rodeo Drive Stakes over 10 furlongs on turf for older fillies and mares, is decidedly more changing than the previous two races on the card and requires a bit of a spread.  #11 Fanticola doesn’t really want to run this far but in a “lone f” situation – such as the one she’s likely to enjoy today – the D’Amato-trained mare could be very difficult to get by, just as she was when missing by a nose over this course and distance in the Santa Barbara ‘Cap in April.  #8 Hard Not to Like, a winner of back-to-back Grade-1 races including Gamely here in May and the Diana at Saratoga in July, returns to the West Coast for the high-percentage Clement stable and gives every indication that she’s fit and ready for a typically top effort.  In what projects to be a slowly-run race early on, Espinoza should have this daughter of Hard Spun close up throughout, ready to pounce.  #2 Lady Pimpernel, a closing third in the Yellow Ribbon S.-G2 at Del Mar earlier this month in her first start since January, figures to be fitter and tougher today and will appreciate the longer trip as well.  She won the Grade 2 Frankel S. on this course last winter and though unproven at this level could be the most dangerous of the deep closing types.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – Lady Pimpernel intrigues us the most - but if you feel the need to go a deeper, go right ahead.

TENTH RACE (5:14 PT) – GRADE: A-

Use: 7-Smooth Roller; 8-Bayern

The Awesome Again Stakes is carded as the 10^th race on the program; last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner #8 Bayern couldn’t have dialed up a more favorable pace scenario and should have every chance to show his connections that he still has some competitive spirit left.  Run into the ground by Beholder in the Pacific Classic last time out, the son of Offlee Wild has looked like his old self of late in the morning and it should be noted that this will be his first start over the Santa Anita main track – clearly his preferred surface – since his controversial gate-to-wire victory on Breeders’ Cup day last November.  If he can’t win under these conditions – or at least run very well – it may be time to call it a career.  The one to fear most is a gelding that has never won, or even placed, in a stakes race.  #7 Smooth Roller won his first two starts like a future star but then was very fractious in the gate, stumbled at the start, and was forced to race wide throughout while many, many lengths the best when fourth in the Brubaker S. at Del Mar in his most recent outing.  He’s fast on numbers with a massive ceiling, and if he can negotiate a good trip he’ll be the one that Bayern, and everybody else, will most have to worry about.  We suggest you take his morning line odds of 6-1 if you can get it.

ELEVENTH RACE (5:45 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Lucky Bryan; 9-Canada

The finale offers a good long shot chance in a wide open, completely unclassified maiden juvenile turf router.  #2 Lucky Bryan is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and offers good value at that number.  The Barba-trained colt was given a good experience in his sprint debut – he wasn’t rushed early and then found his best stride late before galloping out strongly – in a fast, highly-rated abbreviated sprint at Del Mar.  Today he stretches out to a much more suitable distance while switching to the surface he’s bred to handle, and from where he’s drawn the son of Lookin At Lucky should find himself in a good mid-pack position, saving ground, ready to do his thing from the quarter pole to the wire.  Iggy got to know this colt last time out and stays aboard.  #9 Canada was a non-threatening fifth in a highly-rated, productive maiden turf event at Del Mar and seems very likely to move forward off that race for Callaghan.  He switches to Stevens, has progressed nicely in the morning, and remains fairly well regarded.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.