JEFF SIEGEL’S ELITE-8 BREEDERS’ CUP RANKINGS

Updated Sept. 16, 2015

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

1 – American Pharoah (B. Baffert)

2 – Beholder (R. Mandella)

3 – Honor Code (C. McGaughey)

4 – Gleneagles-Ir (A. O’Brien)

5 – Keen Ice (D. Romans)

6 – Tonalist (C. Clement)

7 – Coach Inge (T. Pletcher)

8 – Frosted (K. McLaughlin)

ANALYSIS – Despite his defeat in the Travers-G1, American Pharoah remains tops in this division, though his edge over Beholder has diminished dramatically.   We suspect ‘Pharoah will be shipped to Churchill Downs from his current base at Santa Anita early in October and be trained up to the Classic.   Beholder has benefited greatly from a conservative 2015 campaign and most likely will have what amounts to be an afternoon workout in the Zenyatta Stakes-G1 Sept. 26 at Santa Anita as her final prep.  New to the list is the brilliant European colt Gleneagles-IR, undefeated this year and the winner of three consecutive Group-1 races including both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and most recently the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.  He’s never been farther than a mile and obviously has never raced on dirt, but he’s a Galileo colt out of a group stakes winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway and O’Brien obviously believes he’ll be suited by the Breeders’ Cup Classic conditions.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

1 – Liam’s Map (T. Pletcher)

2 – Dortmund (B. Baffert)

3 – Wicked Strong (J. Jerkens)

4 – Upstart (R. Violette, Jr.)

5 – Appealing Tale (P. Miller)

6 – Red Vine (C. Clement)

7 – Valid (M. Vitali)

8 – Bradester (E. Kenneally)

ANALYSIS – The BC Dirt Mile always has been considered to be something of a BC Classic consolation prize for those horses who fall just below Classic quality or who find 10 furlongs out of their range.  The problem is there are so few significant two-turn mile races in North America that the division never has a chance to develop its own identity.  Liam’s Map could be superior under these conditions but his connections also are strongly considering the Classic following a smart victory by the son of Unbridled’s Song in the 9F Woodward S.-G1.  Dortmund, unraced since the Preakness, is getting geared up, having worked five furlongs in 59 1/5 at Santa Anita Sept. 12. He’s another that could be BC Classic bound; his owner’s Bayern won the race last year.  This is a volatile list that could find a major contender or two transferring from the sprint division as we get closer to Breeders’ Cup weekend.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

1 – Golden Horn-GB (J. Gosden)

2 – Flintshire-GB (A. Fabre)

3 – Free Eagle-IR (D. Weld)

4 – Red Rifle (T. Pletcher)

5 – Big Blue Kitten (C. Brown)

6 – The Pizza Man (R. Brueggeman)

7 – Big John B (P. D’Amato)

8 – Twilight Eclipse (M. Maker)

ANALYSIS – Golden Horn-GB regained his top class form with a victory in the Irish Championship S.-G1; he’ll next run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1, where the John Gosden-trained colt likely will be second choice to Treve.  A start in either the Champions S.-G1 at Ascot or the BC Turf-G1 is said to be under consideration to complete the year.  The latter is a distinct possibility as the son of Cape Cross prefers firm ground and travels well.  Flintshire-GB toyed with the best North American-based runners in the Sword Dancer S.-G1 and last year’s BC Turf runner-up is a firm-ground specialist.  He is slated to run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe if the ground is suitable before returning for the Breeders’ Cup.  Free Eagle-IR, a badly hampered third behind Golden Horn at Leopardstown, is another being mentioned as a BC possible by his connections.  Red Rifle seems to have distanced himself from the American contingent but the Euro’s remain in a different league and could easily dominate the race depending who and how many are sent over.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

1 – Private Zone (J. Navarro)

2 – Runhappy (M. Borell)

3 – Rock Fall (T. Pletcher)

4 – Limousine Liberal (B. Colebrook)

5 – Work All Week (R. Brueggeman)

6 – Holy Boss (S. Asmussen)

7 – Masochistic (R. Ellis)

8 – Big Macher (R. Baltas)

ANALYSIS – Private Zone won the Forego S.-G1 with ease but his front-running trip was soft and the result didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.  His connections know the pace scenario in the BC Sprint-G1 will be considerably more intense, which is why they’re looking at the BC Mile-G1 as an alternative.   However, we expect ‘Zone will remain in this division.  Runhappy was freaky fast in the King’s Bishop-G1 and is absolutely for real, and so may be the King’s Bishop second place finisher, Limousine Liberal.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

1 – Muhaarar-GB (C. Hills)

2 – Esoterique-IR (A. Fabre)                     

3 – Karakontie-JP (J. Pease)

4 – Ironicus (C. McGaughey)

5 – Obviously-IR (P. D’Amato)

6 – Mondialiste-IR (D. O’Meara)

7 – Mshawish (T. Pletcher)

8 – Bawina-IR (C. Laffron-Parias)

ANALYSIS – The American contingent lost its best turf miler with the retirement of two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, so the Europeans could easily dominate this race, as they usually do.  Muhaarar-GB has been a high class sprinter this year – he’s won three straight Group-1 stakes at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Deauville, respectively – but trainer Charles Hills believes the son of Oasis Dream will be even better suited by the conditions offered by the BC Mile-G1 at Keeneland.  If Hills is correct, look out.  Esoterique-IR won a “win and you’re in” race in France last month and at age five the daughter of Danehill Dancer has never been better for Andre Fabre.    Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie-JP, a close third in the Prix du Moulin-G1 at Longchamp in just his second start this year, is rounding to top form.  Ironicus returned to winning form with a course record-setting win in the Bernard Baruch S.-G2 at Saratoga while Obviously-IR, in his first start of the year, finished an admirable third in the Woodbine Mile-G1 in race that should do him wonders.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

1 – Wedding Toast (K. McLaughlin)

2 – Sheer Drama (D. Fawkes)

3 – Untapable (S. Asmussen)

4 – Stopchargingmaria (T. Pletcher)

5 – Got Lucky (T. Pletcher)

6 – Frivolous (V. Oliver)

7 – Stellar Wind (J. Sadler)

8 – I’m a Chatterbox (L. Jones)

ANALYSIS – Wedding Toast bypassed Saratoga and will be fresh for the fall.  She’s won seven of 11, however, one of her defeats came in her only start at Keeneland when she finished fourth in the Madison S.-G1 last spring.  Sheer Drama isn’t brilliant but she is relentless.  The three year old fillies are good, not great.  With Beholder now pointing for the BC Classic-G1 this division has become fairly wide open.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

1 – Legatissimo-IR (D. Wachman)

2 – Dacita-CH (C. Brown)

3 – Secret Gesture (R. Beckett)

4 – Hard Not to Like (C. Clement)

5 – Tepin (M. Casse)

6 – Stephanie’s Kitten (C. Brown)

7 – Kitten’s Queen (C. Brown)

8 – Watsdachances (C. Brown)

ANALYSIS – Legatissimo-IR has won back-to-back Group-1 races, the Nassau S. at Goodwood and the Matron S. at Leopardstown, and according to trainer David Wachman is a strong possibility for the BC Filly & Mare Turf-G1.  Secret Gesture, disqualified from first in the Beverly D S.-G1, was fifth in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and would seem logical for the race again in 2015.  These are just two European-based distaffers among several that will be considered for the race.   Dacita-CH, a daughter of Scat Daddy bred on Southern Hemisphere time (she was foaled in October) was awesome in her U.S. debut when winning the Ballston Spa-G2 while verifying her superior Chilean form. 

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 – Taris (S. Callaghan)

2 – Unbridled Forever (D. Stewart)

3 – Cavorting (K. McLaughlin)                    

4 – Stonetastic (K. Breen)

5 – Fantastic Style (B. Baffert)

6 – Judy the Beauty (W. Ward)                             

7 – Dame Dorothy (T. Pletcher)

8 – La Verdad (L. Rice)

ANALYSIS – Taris returned to winning form at Del Mar with an easy victory in the Rancho Bernardo S.-G2 while showing the ability to stalk and win, rather than just blast to the front.  The best race of her career came over the Keeneland main track in last year’s Raven Run S.-G2.  Unbridled Forever and Cavorting have styles that are ideally suited for seven furlongs and are top class.  Stonetastic looked like her old self in a confidence-building runaway win against overmatched allowance foes at Parx while earning a 109 Beyer figure.  Fantastic Style is recovering from a minor injury and will need to begin breezing again in the next week or so to remain under consideration.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

1 – Lady Shipman (K. O’Connell)

2 – Ready for Rye (T. Albertrani)

3 – Shore Runner (J. Sharp)

4 – Undrafted (W. Ward)

5 – Ageless (A. Delacour)

6 – Pure Sensation (C. Clement)

7 – Thieves Guild (J. Toner)                      

8 – Holy Lute (J. Cassidy)

ANALYSIS – With her victory in the Smart and Fancy Stakes at Saratoga, Lady Shipman now is a perfect seven-for-seven in turf sprints under six furlongs (this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-G1 is carded at five and one-half furlongs).  She’s very fast on speed figures and can win on the lead or from a stalking spot.  Ready for Rye cruised in the off-the-turf Allied Forces S.in the mud at Belmont for his third straight win last week and probably is even more effective on turf.   Ex-claimer Shore Runner has won four straight turf sprints, two of them stakes.  We have not included any Europeans on this list and doubt they’ll be much of a factor.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

1 – Exaggerator (K. Desormeaux)

2 – Nyquist (D. O’Neill)

3 – Ralis (D. O’Neill)

4 – Sudden Surprise (T. Pletcher)

5 – Swipe (K. Desormeaux)

6 – Magna Light (R. Rodriguez)

7 – Amis Gizmo (J. Carroll)

8 – Conquest Twister (M. Casse)

ANALYSIS – Exaggerator was highly impressive winning the Saratoga Special-G2 and gives every indication that he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase.  Nyquist is undefeated in three starts and looked good – but nothing like American Pharoah the previous year – in winning the Del Mar Futurity-G1.  His Doug O’Neill-trained (lesser regarded) stablemate Ralis actually earned a better figure in winning the Hopeful S.-G1.  As of now the Eastern-based two-year-olds are not an impressive group, but that can change overnight.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

1 – Rachel’s Valentina (T. Pletcher)

2 – Songbird (J. Hollendorfer)

3 – Tap to It (R. Nicks)

4 – Pretty N Cool (B. Baffert)

5 – Land over Sea (D. O’Neill)

6 – Dothraki Queen (K. McPeek)

7 – Width (C. Clement)

8 – Constellation (S. Asmussen)

ANALYSIS – Rachel’s Valentina improved her record to two-for-two with an excellent performance in the Spinaway S.-G1 while once again giving the impression that the longer they go, the better she’ll be.  Songbird isn’t BC eligible but her thoroughly dominating victory in the Del Mar Debutante-G1 should convince her connections to push on.  Tap to It lost little in defeat when second in the Spinaway-G1 and is another that will appreciate two-turns.  Grass could be an option for her down the road.  Land over Sea, third in the Debutante, might actually be better on turf and we wonder if her connections are thinking in those terms.  We have maiden debut winner Width rated seventh, but she could easily be better than that.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

1 – Hollywood Don (P. Miller)

2 – Conquest Daddyo (M. Casse)

3 – Hot Ore (R. Diodoro)

4 – Azar (T. Pletcher)

5 – Eidmilaad (C. Brown)

6 – Cajun Schill (W. Kaplan)

7 – Uncle Brennie (B. Cox)

8 – Sky Marshal (B. Minshall)

ANALYSIS – Hollywood Don has won twice going long on turf, a maiden at Del Mar (on the lead) and then the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. (off the pace) while earning strong figures in both.  He’s a quality colt by Tapit.  Conquest Daddyo is a son of Scat Daddy from the Casse barn that won his turf debut in the Summer S.-G2 at Woodbine and has plenty of room for upside.  Hot Ore, an excellent second from a poor draw behind Hollywood Don at Del Mar, is another progressive sort bred for turf (Unusual Heat).  There are no Europeans listed yet but you know they are coming and likely will quickly dominate this list when their plans are revealed.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 – Catch a Glimpse (M. Casse)

2 – Harmonize (W. Mott)

3 – Nemoralia (J. Noseda)

4 – Jakaby Jade (D. O’Neill)

5 – Gamble’s Ghost (J. Carroll)

6 – Thrilled (T. Pletcher)

7 – One Last Shot (B. Baffert)

8 – Ruthless Quality (E. Harty)

ANALYSIS – Catch a Glimpse appears to be another in a very long list of City Zip fillies that excel on turf.  Her runaway win in the Natalma S.-G2 at Woodbine stamps her as the leading North American-based filly in this division slightly over the sharp P.G. Johnson S. winner Harmonize.  Jakaby Jade arrived from Europe with nothing more than a five furlong maiden win at Lingfield and promptly won the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf in good style.  There are tons of fillies like her in Europe, including Nemoralia, a daughter of More Than Ready that just won a valuable a 19-runner Nursery at Doncaster last week.  Trainer Jeremy Noseda says he's actually pointing for the Juvenile Fillies on dirt, but if he comes to his senses this is where she should eventually wind up.