JULY 31, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $54 investment

1st race: 1, 8

2nd race: 4, 8

3rd race: 1, 4, 8

4th race: 5, 7, 9

5th race: 1, 2, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Minster’sadventure; 8-General Ann

We’ll begin the Friday program by doubling the opener in our rolling exotic play, but it’s a race we really don’t have much feel for, so the best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.   #1 Minster’sadventure was beaten as the choice in a quick recent Los Alamitos sprint but earned a career top speed figure in doing so; today she stretches out again and ran well at this trip when runner-up in a similar starter’s allowance race over the Santa Anita main track during the spring.  We’ll put her on top but without any great conviction.  #8 General Ann ran well enough over the Belmont Park turf course to rate a legitimate look in this starter’s allowance for fillies and mares; she has a good stalking style and should fold over into nice pace-prompting position. 

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Skelton Pass; 8-Bellamy Concerto

The known element in this field certainly doesn’t inspire, so let’s go with a fresh face as the top selection.  #4 Skelton Pass has shown some ability in the morning according to the private clockers and appears to be realistically spotted.   The Kentucky-bred gelding could have just as easily shown up in a M20000 and nobody would think twice of it, so we assume he’s done a few things right in the morning for Gaines to choose this spot.  #8 Bellamy Concerto surfaces in a maiden claimer for the first time and this class drop seems to be what he’s always needed.  Drawn comfortably outside with Stevens riding him back, the Mandella-trained gelding won’t have any excuses today.    We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with clear preference to Skelton Pass.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Scuti de Patuti; 4-Summer Veil; 6-True History

This is a split of the third race, a starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares.  #1 Scuti de Patuti broke her maiden in her seventh lifetime start and is steadily improving for Puype.  She lands the good rail and retains Talamo and really won’t have to produce a major forward move to score right back.  #6 True History returns to grass and a repeat of her race-before-last will put her right in the thick of it.  However, she’s a one-paced grinder and needs to be close to the action throughout.  #4 Summer Veil, first off the claim for Kitchingman (solid 20% with this maneuver), has rising speed figures and is stretching out again.  Her only prior two-turn race resulted in her maiden win, so we’ll include her as well in what amounts to a typical grass grab bag.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 5-Scathing; 7-Fantasy of Luck; 9-Lynne’s Legacy

#1 Fantasy of Luck was visually impressive at the Barretts March Sale, breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat without undue pressure.  She doesn’t boast the typical flashy Baffert work tab leading up to her debut, but the daughter of Lucky Pulpit may enough talent to win at first asking.  She was scratched opening day (she drew the rail) but recorded a workout two days later so she’s certainly okay for today.  The lukewarm morning line favorite at 7/2 is #5 Scathing, a daughter of the good speed sire Grazen from the D’Amato barn.  She’s been prepared exclusively at San Luis Rey Downs, so it’s hard to get a line on her, but this stable is solid with first timers so you have to assume she’s live.  #9 Lynne’s Legacy also represents stranger danger; she’s recorded some nice workout times at Galway Downs in Temecula and Cassidy is more than capable of winning with a debut runner.  We’ll certainly prefer Fantasy of Luck on top but this is treacherous affair with lots of unknowns.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Nahem; 2-Al’s Uncle; 4-Jomelo

#1 Nahem is a generous 8-1 on the morning line despite landing Prat and the rail and bringing from Northern California solid, consistent form.  First off the claim for Mathis, who scored yesterday with a similar-type Bay Area shipper, this veteran gelding is most effective in a pace-setting situation though he certainly can stalk and win as well.  #2 Al’s Uncle is an intriguing Churchill Downs shipper for the Hess/Desormeaux team.  He’ll be a late threat with his best effort and a couple of recent sharp workouts over the Del Mar main track is encouraging.  #4 Jomelo, freshened for six weeks and returning to his win level, retains Bejarano and rates a huge look off his sharp score two runs back.  He’s a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar turf course and with good racing luck will be heard from late. 

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Motown Men; 5-Desert Dynamo; 8-Fame and Power

#8 Fame and Power is a listed stakes winner and graded stakes-placed, but he’s still eligible to this second allowance condition and seems the logical favorite in this better-than-par main track miler.  We’re midway through the third week of the Del Mar season and it seems about time for Baffert to start winning some races.  The major concern is that ‘Power is most effective on the lead, but with plenty of front-running speed drawn inside he’ll have to work a little bit early to make the running today.  Can he win from a stalking for second flight position?  Possibly, but that’s not his preferred style.  You have to use him, of course, but he’s certainly no single.  #5 Desert Dynamo followed a highly-rated entry-level allowance win with a strong runner-up performance behind South American stakes winner Kung Fu Mambo at Santa Anita last month; a repeat of either one of his last two starts could make him the one to beat today.  He’s reunited with his win rider, Perez, and a bullet five furlong workout over this track last week is yet another plus.  #3 Motown Men was pitched too high in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita but he returns to reality today and has a triple digit Beyer speed figure to go back to.  He has an excellent pace-stalking style and Baze should have him in the proper position throughout.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; if he’s near his morning line odds of 4-1 Desert Dynamo might be worth an extra ticket or two.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-My Palmilla; 7-Obey

#5 My Palmilla won at first asking and showed quite a bit of moxie in doing so, battling bravely between horses into the stretch and then finding reserve energy late to win like a filly with some quality.  The daughter of Tribal Rule should improve with that race behind her, but she’s facing more early zip today so a forward move, one that she appears capable of making, will be required.  #7 Obey won a visually pleasing race in her debut as well; the Desert Code filly flashed excellent zip to quickly make the running and then won in complete control without being knocked about.  A repeat win against this more competitive group won’t be a surprise.  Let’s give a slight edge to My Palmilla on top – she earned a bit stronger number and her win came over this track – while including both in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Maximus; 3-My Slew; 8-Frensham

This is one of the stronger bottom-rung claiming sprints you’ll on this circuit.  #3 My Slew was beaten as the favorite in a tougher starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos earlier this month but it was Newfound Gold who beat him, so that’s understandable.  Back at his winning level today, the Glatt-trained gelding is reunited with his win rider, Perez, and should be able to settle in the second flight and then produce his run.  The only concern is the shortening in trip – he’s winless in four career starts at five and one-half furlongs on the main track – though he did win at five furlongs on turf back in the day.  #8 Frensham has his issues but a touch of back class and returned to winning form with a nice score opening week at this level.  He should produce a similar effort today with Talamo riding him back.  #2 Maximus earned a giant figure in a runaway win three races back but regressed considerably in two subsequent outings.  He’ drops to the bottom, sports a sharp drill recent drill at San Luis Rey Downs, and could come back to his best today.  We’ll toss him in at 8-1 on the morning line.

JULY 30, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 5, 6

2nd race: 3, 6

3rd race: 2, 6, 8

4th race: 6, 7

5th race: 2

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Itz a Saint; 6-Wild Caroline

#5 Itz a Saint has been away since November but has trained well for Baltas (superior stats with comebackers) and is realistically spotted.  She’s very likely to fire a big shot.  #6 Wild Caroline will race with blinkers for the first time and remains well above her claim level in a show of confidence after a disappointing fourth place effort as the favorite in a recent starter’s allowance affair.  Prat stays aboard and knows her well.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.  Just a six runner field and not really much to work with.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Shared Image; 6-Sugar Spice

We’ve rated this race a “C” – least preferred, or pass – and the two listed above don’t have healthy patterns, though both are good enough to win if they bring their best stuff.  #3 Shared Image won easily up north in a restricted $12,500 affair; she was claimed by Mathis but isn’t raised in claiming price despite two bullet workouts over the track.  If she wins and they lose her they’ll make a nice quick profit, but the barn has to figure she’s likely to get claimed, and who knows, maybe that’s what they want.  #6 Sugar Spice has won two of her last three, most recently an $8,000 event by more than six lengths.  However she’s only effective when she can clear, and today she’s hooking the type of early zip that may not be able to cope with.  We’d love to find a legitimate closer in this field, but there doesn’t seem to be on.  Tread lightly.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Agustina de Aragon; 6-Zanbo; 8-Loveintheshadows

This is a fairly competitive race to kick off the Pick-6 sequence and requires a bit of a spread.  #6 Zanbo returns to her claim (and winning) level today for Miller and should return to top form.  She loves the Del Mar turf course, retains Baze, and if the short rest (five days) doesn’t have a negative effect she’ll be tough to contain.  The pace scenario in this softer spot looks favorable for the veteran mare who does her best running from a stalking, second-flight spot.  #2 Agustina de Aragon ran consistently well up north from off the pace over a turf course that favors speed, so her style should be much more effective on the Del Mar lawn.  Genuine and consistent, the Martin-trained mare should enjoy a good ground-saving trip and be heard from late.  #8 Loveintheshadows, fourth in the same race Agustina de Aragon exits up north, has good tactical speed and knows how to win races.  She’s worth tossing in at 10-1 on the morning line.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Unbridled Rocket; 7-Excite Me

There’s not a whole lot in this maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for juveniles, so class dropper #6 Unbridled Rocket seems well-spotted.  Back sprinting and back on dirt while dropping in for a tag for the first time, the Belvoir-trained colt adds blinkers and should show enough early speed to be the fray throughout.  Although he was well-beaten in his debut sprinting, the Old Fashioned colt actually earned a decent number due to the strength of that race.  #7 Excite Me debuts with a series of decent workouts and Hess has superior stats with first time starters.  The son of Awesome Gambler looks very much like the best of the newcomers and is worth consideration in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Gangnam Guy

#2 Gangnam Guy is winless in 10 career starts on turf, but they all came pre-Hollendorfer, and besides, he did finish in the money in six of the 10 starts so we’re not convinced he doesn’t like grass.  A game winner of a starter’s allowance main track miler on opening day, the son of Roi Charmant shows a nice, easy breeze since that race and lands a good inside post for this turf miler.  There doesn’t seem to be any reason he can’t come right back and score, especially against what looks like a below par field of entry-level California-breds.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Cassandras Chase

#5 Cassandras Chase tipped her hand with an excellent runner-up performance in her debut last month and seems very likely to produce a forward move with Baze staying aboard for Baltas.  The daughter of Midshipman earned a pretty good speed figure in that race, shows a healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs, and looks more than capable of producing the last run.  Most of the others have been exposed; she, however, seems to have some upside.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Power Ped; 5-Lewis Vale; 7-Danas Best

This appears to be a stronger than par race for the level; we’ll go three deep and won’t be surprised if each of the three steps up with a huge effort.  #4 Power Ped was in too tough against Gabriel Charles in the Eddie Read Stakes opening weekend but certainly isn’t today for his second start off a layoff for Drysdale.  Stevens stays aboard and should give this veteran gelding the patient ride he requires.  #5 Lewis Vale is lightly raced and improving and arrives fit and ready from Chicago for Stidham.  After winning a pair of lower level allowance races at Arlington Park in impressive style, the son of Flower Alley will need to step it up to act with this group but he could have it in him.  A couple of nice local main track workouts should have him right on edge.  #7 Danas Best is a mystery horse from Australia; he gets Lasix and blinkers for his U.S. debut and has been sharp in the morning for D’Amato.  His form shows the ability to handle pretty much any distance and those were valuable handicaps he was running in at Randwick and Rosehill.  With Prat taking the call, you have to use him.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 8-Eagle Rock; 11-Barbary Coast

We really don’t have much of an opinion in the nightcap; the two listed above are both dropping drastically to the bottom and may have issues, but are good enough to win with their best race.  #8 Eagle Rock, a distant third in a M50000 in May, seems to be working well enough for Canani and exits a fast, highly-rated race for the level.  If he’s in one piece he really should beat this field.  #11 Barbary Coast, away since April and dropping out of straight maiden races, is another that has seen infinitely tougher company, but the layoff and the class drop raise a couple of red flags.  If the winner isn’t one of these two, it could be anybody, so this is a race we’re not going to get very much involved in.

JULY 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $9 investment

1st race: 7

2nd race: 7

3rd race: 1, 2

4th race: 3, 7, 9

5th race: 3, 7, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 7-Oil

Though #7 Oil just failed at 4/5 in a similar spot, it was a strong race for the level and the speed figure came up strong, so we’ll give this Miller-trained gelding a chance to make amends, especially from the favorable outside draw.  Two easy workouts since that race keeps him on edge, and the son of Tribal Rule is reunited with Espinoza, who was aboard in an eight-length maiden claiming win three races back.  At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, this 3-year-old gelding won’t offer much in the way of value in the straight pool but we can still make him a rolling exotic single.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Where’s Eddie

#7 Where’s Eddie was very well-meant in his debut and ran a winning race in defeat when collared right near the wire in a straight maiden state-bred dash down the hill at Santa Anita last month.  The son of Square Eddie cut out very fast splits under severe pressure to the top of the lane, shook off his pace rivals but couldn’t quite hang on while changing leads four times in the final furlong as if to indicate he wasn’t quite handling the turf.  A good series of steady workouts since that race is a positive sign, as is the switch to the main track.  Let’s make this Cecil-trained colt a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line odds of 5/2.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Serbian Syclone; 2-Jimmy Bouncer

#2 Jimmy Bouncer is undefeated in three starts but unraced since last October.  If he comes back as well as he left, he’ll be hard to beat, and the workout tab looks promising (he’s not really much of a worker, which explains his 18-1 odds in his highly-rated debut win here last year).  The son of Square Eddie is unproven on turf but there’s no reason he won’t handle it; we’re expecting the O’Neill-trained colt to stalk #1 Serbian Syclone to the head of the lane and then launch his bid.  ‘Syclone has only one way to go – on the lead for as far long as he can hold it – and at this abbreviated sprint trip the Miller-trained colt will take some catching.  He was a strong third in a legitimate sprint stakes on turf up north last time out and probably won’t need much better than that to win here.  They’re tough to separate but we’ll give Jimmy Bouncer a very slight nod on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Tequila Mary; 7-One Bye Two; 9-Tumbleweedprincess

This maiden claiming five furlong sprint for juvenile fillies looks treacherous and probably requires a spread.  We’ll use the three listed above; feel free to include a few more if your budget allows.  #3 Tequila Mary had a nightmarish trip in her debut up north – some of her trouble was self-caused – but still finished eagerly to be second and vans to Del Mar with a legitimate chance to win with any kind of improvement.  In that first outing she was very rank and couldn’t be ridden down the backstretch while quickly falling from early contention, but then found her proper stride into the lane and finished eagerly despite lacking a clear path inside the sixteenth pole.  The daughter of Aragorn certainly can do better today and goes for the always-potent Hess/Desormeaux team.  She’ll probably leave a bit lower than her morning line of 5-1, but we’ll take it if we can get it.  #7 One Bye Two removes blinkers in an attempt to get her to relax early; she’s a short-striding butterball and is sloppy changing leads, so she’ll be a hard one to trust.  However, with her kind of zip coupled with the equipment change, the Harrington-trained filly probably needs to be used somewhere.  #9 Tumbleweedprincess drops again in class seeking her proper level and may have found it today,  Making her first start for O’Neill, the Forest Command filly should be within striking range throughout and based strictly on speed figures she’s a solid fit at this level.  Tequila Mary gets top billing in the straight pool but it’s the kind of race where anything and everything is possible.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Land Over Sea; 7-Warm Endowment; 8-Red Stich

The known element isn’t overly inspiring so let’s take a shot with a fresh face at a big price.  #8 Red Stich (10-1 morning line) is bred to run long on turf on both sides of her pedigree and we love her work tab – a series of longer, slower drills mixed in with some speed work.  Perez has been on this filly in the morning a few times, so he knows her well, and while Mullhall’s record with first-time starters isn’t very good, this daughter of Decarchy seems primed for a huge run right off the bat.  #3 Land Over Sea ran okay in her debut – not great, but okay – and certainly has a right to improve with experience.  The pedigree suggests the distance and surface should be within her scope and a nice half mile move since her debut gives reason to believe she has a forward move in her.  #7 Warm Endowment, a solid runner-up in her debut with a perfect, ground-saving trip, is another likely to improve under these conditions.  She’s a daughter of Unusual Heat from a mare by Lemon Drop Kid, so she has to move on turf, right?  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while hoping to get Red Stich home at a nice price.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Lucky Student; 3-Bonus Spin; 8-Anita Marie

#3 Bonus Spin is a dangerous comebacker that can beat this field if she returns as well as she left.  Off the track since last October but showing enough in the morning for Mullins to indicate she’s retained all of her old speed, the daughter of Hard Spun should draft into an ideal second flight position, ready to pounce.  Baze has been out to work her in the morning, another positive.  Her morning line odds of 5-1 seem fair enough.    #8 Anita Marie has been away since February of ’14 but she returns protected and is another training like she’s fit and ready.  First or second in 10 of 19 career starts, she’s always been a consistent sort when properly spotted and may be a better type this time around for new trainer Puype.  She looks very live under Nakatani.  #1 Lucky Student may be the quickest in the field but must leave from the rail, so she’d better come out running.  If she can shake loose early, she might get brave.  We’ll including all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Bonus Spin on top.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Kyankes; 7-Housemaker; 8-Belle Et Bete

This is an extremely difficult, wide open $40,000 claiming turf miler for 3-year-old fillies.  Nothing would surprise us.  We’re going three deep but if you only have the funds to spread just one race on the program, this is the one to do it.  #3 Kyankes is trying turf for the first time and with Brahms on the bottom of her pedigree she has a right to like it.  The Baltas-trained filly is drawn nicely inside and is reunited with Bejarano, who has gotten plenty of run out of her in the past.  She’s a fit on numbers and seems as good as any, so her morning line odds of 5-1 are about what you’d expect.  #8 Belle Et Bete ran quite well down the hill in a high priced claimer while earning a career top speed figure two races back but then flattened out badly when moved up in class to the first-level allowance ranks.  She’s dropping to her lowest level today, has trained well of late for Gallagher, and switches to Smith.  Look for her to be doing her best work from off the pace.  #7 Housemaker exits an infinitely tougher race opening week and should improve against this group.  She has enough tactical speed to land in a good second-flight spot and Graham stays aboard. 

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Shakhari; 2-George’s Main Man; 10-Jimmy’s Date

#2 George’s Main Man has the perfect stalking style for this six and one-half furlong trip and he’s lightly-raced, improving, and training well for Puype.  Prat returns and gave this gelding the proper ride when winning from a lesser group last month at Santa Anita.  We’re expecting a forward move today, one that’s good enough for a score right back.  #10 Jimmy’s Date is one of those dangerous New Mexico invader you have to consider.  He’s got a lovely outside draw and Talamo should be able to pick his spot.  A couple of strong workouts over this track indicate he’s spot on.  #1 Shakahari is stuck on the rail but if he can somehow negotiate a good trip – and the rail isn’t as dead as it has been so far this meeting – the Cerin-trained gelding will be a major player.  He’s pretty much a one-dimensional speed horse and from that post there are no options, he’ll have to pop and go.  The extra half-furlong of this race won’t do him any favors, either, but we’ll still toss him in, at least as a saver.

IT’S OFFICIAL

The July 28, 2015 Edition

You know how sometimes when a song pops into your head for no apparent reason and you find yourself wondering why this particular tune suddenly and randomly entered into your consciousness?   And then you realize that your brain had just delved deep into your memory bank to retrieve a unique lyric from that song that helps explain your current state of mind?

It happened to me last Saturday immediately following the conclusion of the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar.

“I don’t know where we went wrong but the feeling’s gone and I just can’t get it back”

 – Gordon Lightfoot, 1970, “If You Could Read My Mind”.

I realized quickly that – thankfully - the lyric didn’t apply to me on any level, but rather to Bayern, a brilliant race horse on his best day.  Unfortunately, Bayern hasn’t had a best day since last November.

The devout front-running colt had come this close to being named champion 3-year-old in 2014, but top honors went to California Chrome after the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner finished the year on a high note with a victory in the Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby during the autumn meeting at Del Mar.  

Had California Chrome not participated in this late November turf event, or if he had failed to win it, voters wouldn’t have needed much arm twisting to throw their support to the Bob Baffert-trained colt, who had constructed a fairly impressive resume that included a pair of victories over California Chrome, in the Pennsylvania Derby in September and then in the most prestigious non-restricted race in North America, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

With no trophy in hand, Bayern certainly would race as a 4-year-old.  He likely would be bigger, stronger, faster, and better, and his connections had every right to believe that the son of Offlee Wild could become a dominant member of what used to be called the older “handicap” division. A minor setback delayed his seasonal debut until the Derby under card at Churchill Downs May 2, when he reappeared at odds of 4/5 in the Churchill Downs Handicap at seven furlongs. 

Bayern finished last.

Okay, toss it out, he was rusty.

Bayern’s next start, in the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day in early June would be contested over the same main track and on the same Saturday that he had been the most impressive 3-year-old to run on the 2014 Belmont Stakes program when he demolished his rivals in the seven furlong Woody Stephens Stakes.  Baffert was expecting, or at least hoping, that this time he would see that Bayern.

That Bayer didn’t show up.  This Bayern ran last again.

Back home in California last Saturday in the middle distance San Diego Handicap, Bayern would surely be able to inherit his preferred role as the controlling speed.  He had trained like his old self over the new Del Mar dirt surface and the competition was below standard, at least compared to what Bayern had been used to facing.  Baffert was confident that this time, finally, the old Bayern would return.

Today, the prevailing school of thought is that the old Bayern is gone forever. 

Jockey Gary Stevens, aboard the eventual winner, Catch A Flyer, told reporters after the race “I could see Martin (Garcia, aboard Bayern) was out of horse at the three-eighths pole.”

Garcia, himself, didn’t disagree while adding, “He (Bayern) didn’t try.  I don’t know if something’s wrong, but he didn’t try.”

From my perch in the press box, I saw the race exactly the same way.  I stopped watching Bayern at the quarter pole when some horse named Appealing Tale put him away.  In deep stretch I was fixated on Catch a Flight’s dramatic late surge that produced a thrilling head victory over Appealing Tale, who had kicked clear at the furlong pole and seemed headed for an upset win. 

Five minutes after the race was declared official and after Gordon Lightfoot had made his guest appearance in my subconscious, it dawned on me that Bayern actually had finished third, and he was beaten only a length and one-half for the whole thing.  What?   Sure looked to me that he was out of gas entering the far turn, just as Stevens had observed.  And if he “didn’t try” as Garcia insisted after the race, wouldn’t he have  thrown in the towel and stopped completely, just  as he done in last year’s Travers or in his most recent start in the Met Mile?

Fooled me.  Fooled Gordon Lightfoot.

So maybe, Bayern isn’t quite done, yet.   Maybe it’s not too late for Baffert to figure out what went wrong, and that Bayern’s feelings aren’t gone, and that he will get it back.  

Maybe it’ll happen in the Awesome Again Stakes.  Santa Anita’s track is a lot kinder to speed, right?  I hope it happens.  Gotta brush up on my playlist.

BABY TALK – In last week’s column we identified Pretty N Cool as the first “future star” of the Del Mar season.  This past week we were treated to two more.  On Saturday, in his second career start, Exaggerator, a son of Curlin, overcame what appeared to be insurmountable traffic trouble on the turn to wear down first-timer Miner’s Light with a superior turn of foot.  According to the chart, Exaggerator made up three lengths from the eighth pole to the wire to gain the nose decision, and since the final furlong of the six furlong event was clocked in 12.18 seconds, the Keith Desormeaux-trained colt must have come home in 11 and small change.  The Beyer number of 77 is good, but really doesn’t do him justice.  Exaggerator is the third foal from the Canadian stakes-placed sprinter Dawn Raid (Vindication), whose first two foals haven’t amounted to much.  Dawn Raid is a half-sister to Canadian champion mare Embur’s Song; it’s a decent family but nothing more.

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On Sunday we received our first glimpse of Songbird, a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro who had been whispered by the private clockers as the best of the babies from Jerry Hollendorfer’s barn and was expected to win her debut despite having to leave from the dreaded rail in the six furlong sprint.  This was a loaded field that also included Songbird’s stablemate Tiz a Tommy Town, an excellent runner-up in her debut, and the first-timer Treasuring, who had performed up to expectations in the a.m. for Baffert.  

Breaking like a seasoned pro, Songbird quickly established a clear lead and never allowed any of her talented rivals to get close, eventually winning by more than six lengths in 1:11.03 over the deep, dull strip.  She earned an 84 Beyer number; by comparison, the 3 ½ lengths victory by Off the Tracks in the Schuylerville at Saratoga on Friday was assigned an 83.  Songbird was produced by Ivanavinalot, a terrific Florida-based sprinting filly in 2002-03 and a graded stakes winner of $647,300.  Now 15 years old, the daughter of West Acre has yet to produce a stakes winner but she is the grand dam of the nice sprinter Mico Margarita, a graded stakes winning earner of $480,251.

THIS WEEK’S DEL MAR BLACK BOOK

Admiral Jaxon (July 26, 3^rd race) – was ruled a non-participant due to being loaded into the gate after the field already had been dispatched.  The second-time starter therefore spotted the field an insurmountable head-start in the one mile event but, remarkably, managed to rally and finish fifth under the wire.   There seems little doubt that the Mullins-trained gelding would have won the race had he been permitted to leave with his field.  He’ll get a do-over against a similar bunch next time.

Chief of Staff (July 24, 2^nd race) – was victimized by an anti-inside track bias and did as well as he could when settling for second (more than seven lengths clear of the rest) in a strong entry-level state-bred allowance main track miler won by Missing Groom.  Son of Majestic Warrior should have no trouble winning this condition next time over a track that is playing fair to his front-running style.

Flaming Vixen (July 22, 4^th race) – first-time starter by Elusive Warning was very green early and dropped far back during the early stages of this M40000 California-bred juvenile filly sprint, but began to figure things out mid-way on the turn and then took hold to finish full of run behind runaway winner Gypsy’s Rule.  Wound up third, beaten nearly eight lengths, but galloped out strongly and was actually in front of the pack by the time the field hit clubhouse turn.  Baltas-trained filly should improve a ton off the race and will appreciate the stretch out to six furlongs or even farther. 

Soresca-IRE (July 23, 7^th race) – finished off the board (beaten more than eight lengths) in a mini-marathon first-level optional claimer but may very well prove to be a timely $40,000 claim by Little Red Feather Racing and trainer Phil D’Amato.  Irish-bred filly, a nice winner of a starter handicap last month at Santa Anita, lagged to the top of the lane, attempted to rally but was blocked and shut off, then steadied again mid-stretch while trying to launch another bid in a nightmarish trip.  With clear sailing next time she can beat this level of competition.  Smart connections will find the proper spot.

Treasuring (July 26, 7^th race) – This is going to be a very nice filly for Baffert; her troubled third place finish behind future star Songbird gave only a hint of what she’ll be capable of doing down the road.  Full sister to Gr. 1 winner Streaming settled in mid-pack, steadied and lost her position in heavy traffic on the turn, then found room along the rail into the lane and finished strongly to be third in a fast, highly-rated  sprint.  It will take something extraordinary to deny her a diploma the next time she’s led over.

Wonderful Lie (July 26, 10^th race) – her fate was sealed when she drew the impossible 12-post at a mile on turf, but the Blacker-trained filly actually made a race of it and only paid the price of her wide-throughout trip in the final furlong, when she weakened to wind up seventh but only beaten three lengths.  Daughter of Bedford Falls can be effective on any surface and will be hard to handle against a similar first-level allowance filly and mare field next time if she’s fortunate enough to draw a decent post.