JULY 26, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $18 investment

1st race: 5, 6

2nd race: 1, 3, 4

3rd race: 6, 7, 9

4th race: 10

5th race: 3, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 5-Gold Journey; 6-Hide My Heart

#6 Hide My Heart just missed at 3/5 against a non-winners of two $25,000 field and today drops to the $16,000 level while looking very much like a short priced favorite once again.  Clearly she’s on a downward cycle and not one to trust, but against this group she remains the most likely winner.  #5 Gold Journey has a bottom-rung maiden claiming win two races back that charts well with these, but a dull subsequent outing makes her current form questionable.  We’ve rated this race a “C” – tread lightly or simply pass the race – and if you’re playing any rolling exotics consider using the two listed above and then feel free to add any of the others that catch your eye.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Prettypreciousheir; 3-Wild Heart Run; 4-Jan’s Spirit

This is another “C” rated race; rolling pick-3 players should consider the three listed above or simply pass the race.  #3 Wild Heart Run has won two of her last three including a $12,500 nw-2 affair at Santa Anita in early June.  Today she’s facing 3-year-olds only while switching to 7-lb. bug Mena and is a contender despite being a little light in the speed figure department.  #4 Jan’s Spirit failed at 2/5 against $32,000 foes last time out and today drops sharply in class.  She’s fast enough on her best day to beat this field but can’t be considered trustworthy.  #1 Prettypreciousheir, a close third to Wild Heart Run in their common race June 6, will be part of the early pace but must deal with the rail, which had been dead all week. 

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Visibility; 7-Woody’s Folly; 9-Admiral Jaxon

#9 Admiral Jaxon was last of six in his debut but it was a fast straight maiden sprint and today he’s facing a whole different level of competition.  The Mullins-trained gelding stretches out to a distance he’s bred to like, retains Baze, and has continued to show plenty of ability in a.m. drills.  He’s worth giving another chance to.  #6 Visibility has run consistently well at this level and is overdue for a win.  He stretches out again and has back numbers at this distance that are more than good enough to win.  However, his low percentage connections are a major concern.  #7 Woody’s Folly earned a number up north that makes him a fit with these; he’s trained well since for Spawr and might continue his improving pattern today.  At 8-1 on the morning line he might offer a bit of value.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 10-Newfound Gold

#10 Newfound Gold has won three of his last four and is well-placed to continue his streak.  First or second in 28 of 45 career starts, he lands the cozy outside post and should be able to dictate proceedings in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of zip in it.  He has his issues, of course, but has been consistent because Miller hasn’t asked him to do anything he can’t do or beat horses he can’t beat.  He’ll be tough again, so we’ll make him a rolling exotic single at what probably will be a bit lower than his morning line of 5/2.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Rideo; 8-Rare Candy

#3 Rideo has trained like a colt with some ability and looks prepared for a big effort at first asking in this one mile maiden turf event for juveniles.  Prat has been aboard this son of Candy Ride in the morning; this barn has had plenty of success over the years with two-year-olds going long on the lawn at this meeting.  #8 Rare Candy tipped his hand with an excellent runner-up try at Belmont Park sprinting on grass last month and the benefit of having a prior race makes him the one to fear most.  In what clearly looks like a two-horse race, we’ll give the promising Rideo a very slight edge on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Masochistic

#5 Masochistic is drawn favorably outside his main rival (#2 Distinctiv Passion) and that’s the main reason he gets the edge.  ‘Passion probably will be the quicker of the two, but Masochistic can stalk and pounce when he’s ready.  Fastest on speed figures and training better than ever, the Ellis-trained gelding should justify his role as a short-priced rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Songbird; 7-Tiz a Tommy Town

#7 Tiz a Tommy Town missed by a half-length while nearly seven clear of the rest in a very impressive debut run at Santa Anita last month.  She’s trained well since and if she produces a forward move as expected, the daughter of Speightstown will be hard to beat.  #1 Songbird has been impressive in the morning for Hollendorfer and if she can leave cleanly from the rail the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should give the favorite some competition.  We’ll prefer Tiz a Tommy Town on top but both should be included in your rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Rock Me Baby

#3 Rock Me Baby has never been better and should be able to produce the last run in this state-bred turf handicap.  Genuine and versatile, he flew home to win a turf sprint stakes up north last month but is equally effective routing and has three extremely sharp races over this turf course in his resume.  Very sharp in the morning since his last race, the Dollase-trained gelding offers value at or near his morning line of 7/2 and he’ll be a straight play and rolling exotic single for us.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Alamo; 8-Power of Hope; 10-Madikwe

8-Power of Hope has trained like a very good prospect and seems fit and ready for a huge run first crack out of the box.  The barn rarely wins with first timers and it is for that reason we won’t single him, but the son of Malibu Moon is the one to beat.  #2 Alamo ran a superior race when finishing second to Roy H in a downhill turf sprint in May; it was his best effort to date but we’re thinking it was the turf that moved him up more than anything.  The War Front gelding is back on dirt today and we wonder if he’ll revert to his previous main track form.  We’ll use him, but not with a great deal of confidence.  #10 Madikwe was beaten in a M50000 turf sprint in his debut but has trained quite well since for Sadler and could easily be much better than shown.  The fact that he’s protected against straight maidens today is a promising sign from Sadler, so at 12-1 on the morning line he’s probably worth using somewhere.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Diamond Cut: 3-Majestic Heat; 9-Spirit of Ten

#9 Spirit of Ten won a starter’s handicap in her first off the D’Amato claim and remains protected today in this first-level allowance mile turf affair.  She earned a career top speed figure in her last race and better is likely, as the daughter of Ten Most Wanted has looked sharp in her drills since her last race.  Baze stays aboard and should have her within striking range throughout.  #2 Diamond Cut is drawn nicely inside and should draft into a good second flight, ground-saving spot.  She’s turned into a consistent sort for Sadler and fits nicely on speed figures.  3-Majestic Heat is wheeled back quickly by Abrams after appearing rusty in her comeback last week.  She showed considerable ability in her debut win last winter before being stopped on; we’re expecting a forward move today and at 8-1 on the morning she could offer some value in the exotics.