JULY 22, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 8

2nd race: 3, 5

3rd race: 1, 3, 9

4th race: 1, 8

5th race: 9, 11

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 8-Comanche Ruler

#8 Comanche Ruler looks bleak on recent form and only two of his nine career starts have produced a competitive effort.  But he continues to train well, switches back to dirt, and is comfortably placed outside, so under these conditions the Kitchingman-trained gelding should fire his best shot.  It’s either him or anybody and we’re really not interested in spreading this race.  Let’s use him as a rolling exotic single on a small ticket but otherwise not get too involved in the race.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Whiskey Wild; 5-Venetian Mask

#3 Whiskey Wild has been away close to five months and the work tab at Golden Gate Fields hardly inspires, but the Hess-trained gelding is realistically spotted and if he comes anywhere close to his best race he can beat this field.  #5 Venetian Mask is a first-time gelding for Hollendorfer and also is a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt, and first-time-in-a-claimer play.  In a field that lacks much in the way of early speed, the Pulpit gelding should be within range throughout.  We’ll give Whiskey Wild a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Marchman; 3-Forest Chatter; 9-Heir of Storm

#3 Forest Chatter didn’t pass his route test so he’s back sprinting where he belongs.  The Dixie Chatter gelding ran well over this course and distance last fall, and his form down the hill at Santa Anita – where he won four in a row – charts very well in this highly competitive allowance affair.  He’s also reunited with his favorite rider, Smith.  When last seen in November #1 Marchman was beating just one horse in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint but before that he was a multiple graded stakes winner in the east and may very well hold a bit of a class edge in this event.  The workouts at San Luis Rey Downs don’t exactly jump off the page, but Desormeaux has good stats with layoff runners, so we’ll assume the son of Sharp Humor is ready for a good effort.  #9 Heir of Storm exits a fast, highly-rated sprint and should move forward today in his second-off-a-layoff.  The Miller-trained gelding is unproven on turf but will really enjoy this abbreviated distance and could easily be the speed of the speed.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Forest Chatter on top.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Briana Jean; 8-Lady Wedge

#8 Lady Wedge exits a much tougher straight maiden sprint and seems sure to improve in her second start while dropping into a maiden claimer.  Garcia stays aboard for Bonde and in a largely unclassified field, she seems the logical top pick.  #1 Briana Jean moved forward in her second career start with a decent runner-up effort vs. similar at Los Alamitos and if she improves just a bit right back she’ll be right there.  She’s not all that quick and likely won’t be able to use the rail to good advantage but she’ll be running on late and is worth including in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 9-Heat; 11-Diablo Caballero

This California-bred middle distance turf maiden event appears wide open at first glance but we’re going to cut it down to two and hope to survive and advance.  Five horses exit the same race – the ninth race on June 20 at Santa Anita – and we’re not going to use any of them.  Instead, we’ll concentrate on the second and fourth place finishers of the 10th race on June 20, a downhill turf sprint that produced promising performances from both #9 Heat and #11 Diablo Caballero.  Both are stretching out for the first time and both act like they’ll handle the added ground.  Heat was making his debut in that race and was a bit green in the lane while very late changing leads.  However, the son of Unusual Heat kept on gamely and finished eagerly; he may have the most upside in the field and Perez rides him back for Abrams.  Diablo Caballero came from way out of it to miss by a nose in that same race in his first start since last October and certainly has a right to move forward with that outing behind him.  Talamo stays aboard for Glatt, and we’re expecting the Tribal Rule gelding to show more tactical speed today. 

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Savings Account; 6-Divina Comedia

#5 Savings Account almost 20 lengths clear of the third runner when earning a career top speed figure in her second place effort at Monmouth last month, and if she can come close to that performance today she’ll beat this field.  A recent bullet five furlong workout over this track last week is a good indication that she remains fit and ready, and the Smith/Proctor team is one of the more potent jockey-trainer combo’s you’ll find.  #6 Divina Comedia crushed a softer field impressively while continuing her improving pattern for Canani and with another forward move today she’ll be in the thick of things throughout. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with Savings Account on top.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Kulik Lodge; 6-Pure Tactics

You have to like #4 Kulik Lodge’s winning spirit; the lightly-raced 5-year-old finished second in his debut and since then has won four straight, three of the wins coming by a nose.  His most recent score last month was in his first start since October and the son of Curlin returned in peak form for Proctor while earning a typical strong speed figure.  He has excellent tactical speed and Smith should have him in the perfect spot, ready to pounce.  #6 Pure Tactics is himself a real pro (nine wins from 24 lifetime starts) and is equally effective sprinting or routing.  He’s another versatile type that can take advantage of a “lone f” trip or as a stalker, so Prat has some options.  On pure numbers ‘Tactics is a tad faster of the two, but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics and we won’t be surprised of Kulik Lodge somehow finds a way to win again, maybe in another nose photo.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Dixie Tweet; 2-Mucho Blessings; 6-Gentle Caroline

#1 Dixie Tweet deserves top billing in this modest bottom-rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares; she drops to her lowest level ever, switches to Bejarano, moves to the main track and has the early speed to take advantage of her rail post. She’s really not much, but the others look even less.  #2 Mucho Blessings has burned money in her last pair when second both times as the favorite, so she’s definitely not one to trust, but in a weak affair she’s once again a contender by default.  #6 Gentle Caroline was last of four and never raised a gallop against straight maidens up north in her debut; she’s now in the Bell barn and is dropping and stretching out to a distance she should like.  Not sure if she can run much, but one race isn’t a career and at this level she’s worth tossing in.