JULY 16, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $121.50 investment 

1st race: 2, 8, 9

2nd race: 1, 2, 5

3rd race: 7, 9, 12

4th race: 1, 2, 3

5th race: 3, 5, 6

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Just Gone; 8-Indian Nate; 9-Dress Code

With Del Mar returning to dirt (comprised of the same material as Santa Anita's main track) for the first time since 2007, handicappers are flying blind.  Will there be a track or pace bias?  Best advice is play cautiously at the outset.  The traditional Del Mar season opener – a middle distance main track claimer – is a wide open mess with condition and health question marks surrounding many of the main contenders.  Let's swing for the fences.  #2 Just Gone (12-1) was extra sharp in a highly-rated win at Pleasanton, but the soft race/trip might have flattered him and there’s a legit concern about his ability to copy with today’s much quicker pace.  But at least we know he’s healthy.  #8 Indian Nate (10-1), freshened for 10 weeks, drops sharply to his lowest level ever, retains Espinoza, and sports a bullet half mile work at San Luis Rey Downs five days ago.  #9 Dress Code (9/2) is a nine year old with 13 career wins and good recent form; toss out his race before last over a wet-fast track and he’s been as genuine and consistent as anything in here.  He can settle somewhere in mid-pack and then produce a run.  If you’re playing the rolling exotics you should include the three horses listed above and as many others as you can afford to.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Adriatic Sky; 2-No Tricks for Jack; 5-Always a Chance

This is race that we’ve graded a “C” and probably should be approached with caution.  #1 Adriatic Sky (6-1) had her win streak snapped at four when third at even money in a strong starters allowance turf sprint up north last time out and is eligible to rebound today, though the switch to conventional dirt might be an issue.  She’s a fit on numbers and if she can negotiate a trouble-free trip from the rail she should be right there. #2 No Tricks for Jack (7/2) is in form for Miller and has been a win machine throughout her career.  However, she’s shortening to six furlongs (just 1-for-10 lifetime at this exact trip) and has never really appreciated being rushed early.  That said, the early pace projects on the soft side so she might be able to stay within range without being used hard.  #5 Always a Chance (5-1) has three wins and 15 placings from 34 career starts so she may be a hard one to trust; however, she was recently claimed back by Mullins and has never raced this cheaply, so she’s probably worth tossing in. 

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Bananappeal; 9-Celtic Ray; 12-Restrike

This bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint looks playable.  #12 Restrike (4-1) has the blinkers-off angle we like so much and coupled with the drop to the bottom and a healthy recent work tab he appears the horse to beat.  We also like the outside draw, so Graham and pop and go or tuck in and stalk depending upon how the race shapes up in the early going.  #7 Bananappeal (5-1) has the proper style for this distance and speed figures up north that make him a major player.  A bullet workout over this track last Sunday is a healthy sign; Maldonado should have him within striking range throughout.  #9 Celtic Ray (20-1) closed a big gap in his sprint debut and then was out of his element going long on the lawn up north.  He turns back in trip, surfaces at the bottom, gains Prat and had a nice blowout over this track the other day.  He offers long shot value as a deep closer in a race that could fall apart late. 

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Infinite Magic; 2-Wanstead Garden; 3-Cyrus Alexander

#3 Cyrus Alexander (6-1) tackles older today and tries nine furlongs and turf for the first time but if he can reproduce his dirt form he can win at a nice price.  The son of Medaglia d’Oro was knocked sideways leaving the gate in the recent Affirmed Stakes behind Gimme Da Lute and Prospect Park and under the circumstances didn’t run badly when winding up fourth of four, beaten just over four lengths.  Nominated to the Oceanside Stakes but opting for this spot to take advantage of the longer trip, the Hollendorfer-trained colt switches to Baze and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position.  If he’s going to develop into a good colt – he’s a half-brother to Super Saver – it’ll probably be going long on the lawn and thus he should have no excuses today.  #1 Infinite Magic (4-1), a first-time gelding for Stidham, was squeezed back at the start and then raced in traffic much of the way when a better-than-looked third in a similar event at Churchill Downs last month.  The former stakes-winner attracts Bejarano and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his rail post.  #2 Wanstead Garden (6-1) has had prior success over this turf course and comes off a nice score when beating subsequent San Juan Capistrano winner Crucero.  Stevens will have him running on strongly and with clear sailing he’ll be heard from late.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-My Palmilla; 5-Late 'n Left; 6-Miles Sister

There doesn't appear to be a any world beaters in this state-bred juvenile filly sprint, so we'll go three-deep and hope to get by.  #3 My Palmilla (5-1) has done some good work in the morning for Glatt and may be best of the newcomers, though the two Miller entrants from San Luis Rey Downs (California Song, Plane Lucky) might have some talent, but that's nothing more than a guess.   'Palmilla has win early breeding (Tribal Rule) and the barn is capable of winning with debut runners.  #5 Late 'n Left (7/2) and #6 Miles Sister (9/2) finished two-three in a similar maiden dash last month and both are eligible to improve.  'Left may be the quicker of the two but 'Sister was finishing strongly and may have a bit more room to improve.  Let's go with the fresh face (My Palmilla) on top but not get too involved in what amounts to something of a guessing gamed.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Basmati; 3-Ranulf; 10-Nextdoorneighbor

#10 Nextdoorneighbor (5/2) is a real pro and Miller has done a superb job of managing his campaign since claiming the gelding for $8,000 in early January.  In six starts for his current connections, ‘Neighbor has produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the eight-year-old appears well-placed for another major effort.  Both he and #3 Ranulf (9/2) exit the same race, a highly-rated affair taken by next-out winner Oligarch and both should fire big shots right back.  Ranulf gets an extra half-furlong to work with today, retains Talamo, and looks the most dangerous of the closers.  #2 Basmati (4-1) is a strong fit on speed figures and goes for the Hess-Desormeaux team in his first start since returning from the Midwest.  Though he’s never been all that genuine under pressure (four wins, 15 seconds/thirds), he’s likely to draft into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving position and should have every chance to pounce from the top of the stretch to the wire.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Gangnum Guy; 8-Fight Thru

#8 Fight Thru (5/2) might have looked better than he really is when posting a big figure victory with a pristine trip against a modest state-bred maiden field at 2/5 last month.  However, two sharp recent works at San Luis Rey Downs indicate further improvement is probable and with only four starts he’s likely to possess room for another forward move or two.  #7 Gangnum Guy (6-1) employed a change of tactics and finished strongly when third, beaten less than a length, in a recent competitive downhill turf sprint.  He stretches out to a mile today – two prior tries around two turns were disappointing – and removes blinkers in his first start since joining the Hollendorfer stable.  We’ll sink or swim using just these two in a difficult starter’s allowance race that big ticket players may find the need to spread.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 9-Anytime Anyplace; 10-Papacoolpapacool; 11-Soul Driver

Stevens jumps off #11 Soul Driver (3-1) to ride #10 Papacoolpapacool (5/2), who returns from Pennsylvania after finishing seventh (but beaten just over a length) in the Penn Mile (the winner, Force the Pass, came back to take the Belmont Derby).  Prior to that race, ‘Cool had won three straight against this level of competition and a 59 3/5 seconds workout last week should have the D’Amato-trained gelding ready to regain his top form.  Soul Driver left his previous form behind with a crushing victory in the Singletary Stakes at Santa Anita last month and earned by far his best figure ever.  If he can run back to that race today under Smith he’ll give ‘Cool all he can handle.  9-Anytime Anyplace (6-1) won a visually pleasing race down the hill at Santa Anita in his first for Gallagher and a flat mile seems well within his range.  He’s likely to draft in right behind pacesetter Forest Blue and be first over on that one; given that kind of trip he could put up considerable resistance late.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Dreamologist; 11-Gloryzapper

#6 Dreamologist (6-1) was a late scratch last month at Santa Anita after she developed a very minor foot problem but she’s trained well since and looks fit and ready to (finally) make it to the races.  By Tapit from Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Dreaming of Anna, she trained like Mandella’s best two year old last year but had to be stopped on just prior to her scheduled debut here last summer.  She hasn’t displayed in the morning the kind of intense early speed her mother had, but everything else she does indicates plenty of class.  11-Gloryzapper (9/2) looks like a live newcomer as well and is worth including in rolling exotic play.  A 58 4/5 seconds gate work at Santa Anita last week indicates lots of talent  and this barn has good stats with debut runners.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-It Is Living Water; 2-Fritz Johansen; 3-Global Magician; 12-Unusually Green

A tough, contentious nightcap requires a spread for rolling exotic players with the main contention drawn favorably inside.  Miller has two good chances with #3 Global Magician (6-1) stretching out for the first time and #1 It Is Living Water (6-1) moving up from starter’s allowance company.  ‘Magician earned by far his career top figure when a close fourth down the hill vs. similar in his first start since October last month and if he can project that form at this distance, he’ll be tough to beat.  ‘Water got away with a walking pace when beating lesser at Santa Anita but he’s not a need-the-lead type and clearly is vastly improved since being claimed by Miller four races back.  #2 Fritz Johansen (9/2) prompted a hot pace and came away to beat open maidens in his first route attempt last month at Santa Anita and the figure he earned puts him right there against this state-bred lineup.  Talamo takes over for Bejarano, who jumps ship to pilot #12 Unusually Green, (7/2) a flying runner-up in a similar event last month and a proven winner over this turf course last year.  ‘Green is drawn poorly but looks clearly the most dangerous of the closers, and if your budget allows you to go four-deep in this race, he’s the one you should add.