JULY 30, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 5, 6

2nd race: 3, 6

3rd race: 2, 6, 8

4th race: 6, 7

5th race: 2

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Itz a Saint; 6-Wild Caroline

#5 Itz a Saint has been away since November but has trained well for Baltas (superior stats with comebackers) and is realistically spotted.  She’s very likely to fire a big shot.  #6 Wild Caroline will race with blinkers for the first time and remains well above her claim level in a show of confidence after a disappointing fourth place effort as the favorite in a recent starter’s allowance affair.  Prat stays aboard and knows her well.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.  Just a six runner field and not really much to work with.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Shared Image; 6-Sugar Spice

We’ve rated this race a “C” – least preferred, or pass – and the two listed above don’t have healthy patterns, though both are good enough to win if they bring their best stuff.  #3 Shared Image won easily up north in a restricted $12,500 affair; she was claimed by Mathis but isn’t raised in claiming price despite two bullet workouts over the track.  If she wins and they lose her they’ll make a nice quick profit, but the barn has to figure she’s likely to get claimed, and who knows, maybe that’s what they want.  #6 Sugar Spice has won two of her last three, most recently an $8,000 event by more than six lengths.  However she’s only effective when she can clear, and today she’s hooking the type of early zip that may not be able to cope with.  We’d love to find a legitimate closer in this field, but there doesn’t seem to be on.  Tread lightly.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Agustina de Aragon; 6-Zanbo; 8-Loveintheshadows

This is a fairly competitive race to kick off the Pick-6 sequence and requires a bit of a spread.  #6 Zanbo returns to her claim (and winning) level today for Miller and should return to top form.  She loves the Del Mar turf course, retains Baze, and if the short rest (five days) doesn’t have a negative effect she’ll be tough to contain.  The pace scenario in this softer spot looks favorable for the veteran mare who does her best running from a stalking, second-flight spot.  #2 Agustina de Aragon ran consistently well up north from off the pace over a turf course that favors speed, so her style should be much more effective on the Del Mar lawn.  Genuine and consistent, the Martin-trained mare should enjoy a good ground-saving trip and be heard from late.  #8 Loveintheshadows, fourth in the same race Agustina de Aragon exits up north, has good tactical speed and knows how to win races.  She’s worth tossing in at 10-1 on the morning line.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Unbridled Rocket; 7-Excite Me

There’s not a whole lot in this maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for juveniles, so class dropper #6 Unbridled Rocket seems well-spotted.  Back sprinting and back on dirt while dropping in for a tag for the first time, the Belvoir-trained colt adds blinkers and should show enough early speed to be the fray throughout.  Although he was well-beaten in his debut sprinting, the Old Fashioned colt actually earned a decent number due to the strength of that race.  #7 Excite Me debuts with a series of decent workouts and Hess has superior stats with first time starters.  The son of Awesome Gambler looks very much like the best of the newcomers and is worth consideration in rolling exotic play.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Gangnam Guy

#2 Gangnam Guy is winless in 10 career starts on turf, but they all came pre-Hollendorfer, and besides, he did finish in the money in six of the 10 starts so we’re not convinced he doesn’t like grass.  A game winner of a starter’s allowance main track miler on opening day, the son of Roi Charmant shows a nice, easy breeze since that race and lands a good inside post for this turf miler.  There doesn’t seem to be any reason he can’t come right back and score, especially against what looks like a below par field of entry-level California-breds.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Cassandras Chase

#5 Cassandras Chase tipped her hand with an excellent runner-up performance in her debut last month and seems very likely to produce a forward move with Baze staying aboard for Baltas.  The daughter of Midshipman earned a pretty good speed figure in that race, shows a healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs, and looks more than capable of producing the last run.  Most of the others have been exposed; she, however, seems to have some upside.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Power Ped; 5-Lewis Vale; 7-Danas Best

This appears to be a stronger than par race for the level; we’ll go three deep and won’t be surprised if each of the three steps up with a huge effort.  #4 Power Ped was in too tough against Gabriel Charles in the Eddie Read Stakes opening weekend but certainly isn’t today for his second start off a layoff for Drysdale.  Stevens stays aboard and should give this veteran gelding the patient ride he requires.  #5 Lewis Vale is lightly raced and improving and arrives fit and ready from Chicago for Stidham.  After winning a pair of lower level allowance races at Arlington Park in impressive style, the son of Flower Alley will need to step it up to act with this group but he could have it in him.  A couple of nice local main track workouts should have him right on edge.  #7 Danas Best is a mystery horse from Australia; he gets Lasix and blinkers for his U.S. debut and has been sharp in the morning for D’Amato.  His form shows the ability to handle pretty much any distance and those were valuable handicaps he was running in at Randwick and Rosehill.  With Prat taking the call, you have to use him.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 8-Eagle Rock; 11-Barbary Coast

We really don’t have much of an opinion in the nightcap; the two listed above are both dropping drastically to the bottom and may have issues, but are good enough to win with their best race.  #8 Eagle Rock, a distant third in a M50000 in May, seems to be working well enough for Canani and exits a fast, highly-rated race for the level.  If he’s in one piece he really should beat this field.  #11 Barbary Coast, away since April and dropping out of straight maiden races, is another that has seen infinitely tougher company, but the layoff and the class drop raise a couple of red flags.  If the winner isn’t one of these two, it could be anybody, so this is a race we’re not going to get very much involved in.