JULY 25, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $54 investment

1st race: 4, 6, 7

2nd race: 1, 3, 10

3rd race: 3, 6

4th race: 5, 7, 9

5th race: 5, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Lucky Reality; 6-Brimstoned; 7-Sindys Luck

We’re really don’t have a great feel for this maiden claiming sprint and probably won’t get too involved.  #6-Brimstoned looks intriguing; he’s dropping into a claimer, making his first start since being gelded, and removes blinkers.  Perhaps most effective as a late-running sprinter, he’ll likely get the patient ride he needs from Blanc.  #4 Lucky Reality returns in a realistic spot for his first start since January and recent workouts indicate fitness.  #7 Sindys Luck is another comebacker with a right to run well off the bench; he, too, has trained nicely and is a solid fit on figures.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Becker’s Galaxy; 3-Warren’s Joe T.; 10-Fit to Rule

Here’s a challenging nine-furlong $10,000 claimer, one certainly requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  #1 Becker’s Galaxy beat a tougher field two runs back in New York with a big figure and then got chewed up pressing a hot pace against a much tougher band last time out.  He arrives with his sights set on the bonus shipping money and drops into a soft spot for the Hess-Desormeaux team.  He should enjoy an ideal pace-stalking, ground-saving trip.  #10 Fit to Rule earned a surprisingly strong figure when second in a similar spot at Santa Anita last month; he switches to Prat and if he can turn in two alike he may be able to beat this field.  #3 Warren’s Joe T. didn’t fire up north vs. allowance types but drops for the money run today and seems sure to improve.  He has more tactical speed than he showed up north and Baze likely will seek an early stalking spot.  We’ll put Becker’s Galaxy slightly on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (3:11 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Sheer Pleasure; 6-Kiss At Midnight

The Fleet Treat Stakes for Calbred 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs quickly boils down to two main contenders, including the logical strong favorite,  #3 Sheer Pleasure.  The D’Amato-trained filly faces state-bred foes again after being in a tad tough when fourth in the Summer Oaks two-turning at Santa Anita last time out.  This extended sprint trip seems perfect for her style and Baze should have her within striking range throughout.  #6 Kiss At Midnight gets a class test today after demolishing a starter’s allowance field with a huge, career top speed figure last time out.  She just won at this trip and has the style that allows Graham to place her wherever he wants.  It’s an ambitious spot for a filly that was claimed for $25,000 in April but at 6-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth tossing in on a ticket or two.

FOURTH RACE (3:42 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Classic Gent; 7-Great Lou; 9-Henry’s Holiday

This extended sprint for $50,000 claiming 3-year-olds offers a few nice price chances, with the three listed above all worth including in rolling exotic play.  #5 Classic Gent earned a strong figure when beating restricted $25,000 claimers at Santa Anita last month and in a sign of confidence is boosted all the way up to the $50,000 claiming level by Miller.  The Old Fashion gelding can turn it on late and continues to look improved in the morning; at 6-1 on the morning line he’s offering a fair bit of value.  #7 Great Lou gets back on dirt where he belongs and catches a very favorable pace scenario; the Hess-trained gelding looks potentially like the controlling speed and given that kind of trip he’ll be dangerous.  #9 Henry’s Holiday shows up for a tag for the first time in his third start off a layoff; he’s caught a wet fast track and turf in two 2015 outings prior to today and we’re expecting that he’ll enjoy the dry and fast nature of today’s surface.  Drawn comfortably outside, he’s likely to be heard from late. 

FIFTH RACE (4:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Hawkedon; 8-Perfectly Majestic

We really liked #8 Perfectly Majestic last week but he was scratched when the rains came and the race was taken off the turf.  This is an equally good spot for the recent downhill turf maiden winner; his one prior route race wasn’t bad at all and we suspect the son of Majesticperfection will continue to improve with experience.  Desormeaux rides him back for Hess and at 6-1 on the morning line there’s plenty of value to be found in both the straight pool and the rolling exotics.  We’ll also include #5 Hawkedon, an improving Mucho Uno gelding seeking his third straight score.  Both of the wins were sprinting down the hill but he’s won routing on turf in the past so the stretch out in trip shouldn’t be an issue.  Bejarano, who was aboard in his victory two races back, returns for Puype and on pure numbers he’s the one to fear most. 

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Path of David; 7-Exaggerator 10-Tiz a Billy

#7 Exaggerator showed a considerable amount of promise in his debut and seems certain to build on that performance today.  The son of Curlin steadied after the start to trail early, found his best stride into the lane and finished eagerly to wind up a better-than-looked fifth before galloping out strongly. The race itself was highly-rated and productive, and since then the Desormeaux-trained colt has looked especially sharp in the a.m.  The extra furlong of today’s race can only help, so let’s give him a very strong look at or around his morning line odds of 6-1.  #1 Tiz a Bill acts like a very nice prospect, having recorded a 10 1/5 eighth-of-a-mile breeze while being showcased in the Barretts March Sale.  Purchased from the sale for $200,000, he’s drawn comfortably outside for his debut and the son of Tizway looks plenty fit and ready for Koriner.  It may or may not mean anything that Graham jumps off Path of David to ride him.  #1 Path of David is buried on the rail but has the benefit of a prior run (a troubled fourth behind subsequent stakes winner He’s Comin in Hot) and a series of sharp workouts at Arlington Park since that race for Stidham indicates a forward move is likely.  Bejarano picks up the mount and at 9/2 on the morning line this colt must be considered a major player as well.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Tiz a Kiss; 4-Queenofthepalace; 8-Hiking

#8 Hiking has very decent English form; she’s actually captured two non-claiming races for winner’s races but neither offered a purse to the winner in excess of $10,000 so she’s eligible for the first-level here.  The works indicate fitness and Callaghan knows how to get these Euro-imports ready at first asking.  Twice she’s won fresh, so the long layoff shouldn’t be a concern.  A versatile sort that ran well in England from off the pace as well as on the lead, she can be a threat no matter how the race shapes up.  The New Zealand form that #4 Queenofthepalace brings with her is tougher to analyze but at least we know she was consistent (seven of eight in the frame) while competing in large fields.  The workouts look good enough for Sadler and she gets Lasix and Espinoza, so we’ll toss in her at 8-1 on the morning line.  #1 Tiz a Kiss has run well over this course in the past and she’s training like she’s fit and ready for new trainer Machowsky.  Hard to say if she’s completely cranked up in her first start in 11 months but she’s probably worth using as a saver, at least.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Hoppertunity; 4-Bayern

You can see in the form how effective #4 Bayern can be when he enjoys a no-pressure, front-running trip.  He’ll get one to today.  Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner has turned in two clunkers so far this year but continues to impress in the morning and should take full advantage of today’s conditions and projected race-shape.  His uncoupled stablemate, 3-Hoppertunity, lost a considerable amount of ground when just missing by a nose in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita last month and today he’ll be the one to fear most with the switch to Smith.  We’re expecting Baffert to win this race with one or the other; both will be included in rolling exotic play with preference going to Bayern.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Unblunted; 2-Micks Miracle

#2 Micks Miracle and #1 Unblunted both exit the same race, a highly-rated affair last month at Santa Anita won by Stringent.  Making his first start since a stunning debut maiden win in late December, Micks Miracle was a tad rusty and wound up third, losing his punch late after a slow start and a less-than-ideal trip thereafter.  A solid work tab for the D’Amato-trained colt since that race leads us to believe that he’ll be at his best today, and his best certainly is good enough to win.  Unblunted is a nice colt, too, and despite the rail deserves consideration.  Clearly most effective around one-turn, the son of Sharp Humor switches to Espinoza and at this extended sprint trip likely will be held up early and allowed to run late. 

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Perdona; 9-Artisticdifference; 10-Scandal

If you get a chance, go back and watch the debut run by 9-Artisticdifference in the seventh race at Santa Anita June 21.  If you ever wanted a pure definition of the term “given a race,” this was it.  The daughter of Eskendereya finished eagerly to be fourth without really being asked, and did so coming against the race-shape (slow early, strong late).  We assume they’ll be more serious today, and we’re expecting Desormeaux to have her rolling in the final furlong.  #1 Perdona stretches out from the rail after a pair of sprints and seems certain to be on the lead; the daughter of Blame is bred to like the added ground and if she’s left alone on the front end under Bejarano she could take this field a very long way.  #5 Cadet Roni always has trained like a filly with some ability; today, however, will be her first chance to run long (and on turf) and as a daughter of Colonel John, she should fully appreciate the conditions.  The Glatt-trained filly offers considerable price value at 12-1 on the morning line, so we’ll toss her in as well.  All three should be used in rolling exotic play.