JULY 23, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $36 investment

1st race: 2, 7

2nd race: 4, 6, 8

3rd race: 2, 7

4th race: 6, 11

5th race: 5, 7, 11

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Wish I Understood; 7-Sooner Time

In a race in which the known element looks average at best, #2 Wish I Understood seems to have dropped into a winning spot in her second outing for Baffert.  The daughter of Concord Point was a fading third in a five-runner field at Los Alamitos against straight maidens earlier this month, so the class drop is warranted and this stable hits at a strong 23% with second-timers.  #7 Sooner Time is a first-timer by Sidney’s Candy with a string of respectable workouts and clearly won’t have to be a world beater to win.  The Eurton barn has a poor record with first-time starters but this filly seems like a major contender by default.  In a race we really don’t want to get too involved with, let’s use both in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 4-Rosewhiteenblue; 6-Twelve Folds; 8-Lexie Arleen

We’ll go three-deep in this bottom-rung claiming sprint for older fillies and mares but we’ve rated the race a “C”, so tread lightly.  We have mixed signals on #8 Lexie Arleen.  She earned a nice number with a win at Pleasanton last month, she has a good stalking style, and she’s reliable (first or second in 10 of 20 career starts).  Additionally, she has two works since her last race.  On the other hand, could it be that by dropping her off a win, Miranda may be trying to unload her?  Even if so, she still could win.   #6 Twelve Folds has a respectable record on dirt (in the money in 14 of 18 career starts) so her prior failures at Del Mar (over the synthetic track, her record was 5-0-0-0) can be dismissed.  She was more than three clear of the rest when second, beaten a neck, in a $10,000 claimer at Los Alamitos earlier this month and retains Talamo.  #4 Rosewhitenblue has been chasing much tougher lately and should really enjoy this company.  The Machowsky-trained mare has no tactical speed, but closers have done okay so far this meeting so we’re expecting her to be a factor late.  Let’s give Lexie Arleen a slight nod on top in a race that demands a very conservative approach.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Roy H; 7-Rule H Will

The Pick-6 begins here with $52,158 already in the pot.  However, it’s a very difficult sequence and a double carryover is quite possible.  Our projected ticket is $1,440 – that’s what we’d have to play to feel like we’ve covered the bases - and we’re not suggesting anybody invest that much.  #2-Roy H has the makings of an outstanding turf sprinter.  When breaking his maiden down the hill in late May in just his second career start, the Miller-trained colt went faster at every pole then the Siren Lure Stakes over the same course and distance later in the day.  He’s tackling older today but has trained well since his win, so at this abbreviated trip the son of More Than Ready should be able to take the necessary step forward.  #7 Rule He Will seems likely to be at his throat every step of the way and is the one to fear most.  He, too, is lightly raced and improving; the Glatt-trained 4-year-old gelding will be trying grass for the first time but there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle it.  In a race lacking in legitimate closing types, we’re expecting the speed to dominate, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotic play while slightly preferring Roy H on top.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Simplicityizgenius; 11-Gravity Force

Though he was disappointing at 4/5 when second in a M75000 claimer last month, Gravity Force has a reasonable chance to make amends today while dropping to the M40000 level and retaining Bejarano.  Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Malibu Moon should be on or near the lead throughout and with six nicely-spaced workouts since his last start, he appears fit and ready to produce a significant forward move.  #6 Simplicityizgenius is an intriguing class-dropper from the D’Amato barn and is worth including in rolling exotic play.  He’s a first-time gelding, has the route-to-sprint angle we like, is dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming, and is fresh and working well for a high percentage outfit.  If he can run at all, he’ll show it today.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Ticaboo; 7-Unusual Storm; 11-Almost Reality

We’ll use three in this maiden special weight state-bred turf miler for fillies and mares; it’s an open affair with a number of positive angles to consider among the contenders.  #11 Almost Reality faced the boys in her last start and actually ran quite well, rallying from last to finish third in a vastly improved effort.  She’s back with her own sex today and though drawn poorly outside figures to produce another forward move for Drysdale.  We have her slightly on top at 5-1 on the morning line.  #7 Unusual Storm finished well and galloped out strongly in a downhill turf sprint last month in just her second career start and the daughter of Unusual Heat should stretch out nicely today.  She retains Prat and looks enticing at 6-1 on the morning line.  #5 Ticaboo, second in the same race Unusual Storm exits, is another progressive sort and should be on or near the pace throughout in her first try around two turns.  The work tab is healthy and her dam could route, so the daughter of Rocky Bar is worth including at 8-1 on the morning line.  Given the expected closing prices of our three preferred contenders, an exacta or trifecta box might be in order as well as the rolling exotic play.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Ain’t No Other; 5-Barrel Knight; 6-Oligarch

This highly competitive $40,000 claimer has several in it that present strong cases, so it’s another event requiring a spread.  #6 Olilgarch took considerable heat yet came away to beat a softer field with a strong number for his third win in his last four starts last month; he’s bumped up a notch by new trainer Mulhall and sports a healthy work pattern since that win, so a similar effort can be expected.  The rail is no bargain for #1 Ain’t No Other but if he breaks cleanly he’ll be within range while saving ground, and the Hollendorfer-trained gelding – first or second in 21 of 43 career starts – won the last time he showed up at this level three runs back.  The “other” Hollendorfer, #5 Barrel Knight, has a look as well, and is worth tossing in at 8-1 on the morning line.  Raised a notch despite being out of jail after finishing second at even money vs. $32,000 foes in his comeback, the veteran gelding vans down from Northern California rather than seeking out a spot on the Fair circuit.   We assume he’s here because the barn think he fits. 

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Halljoy; 8-Tangelo

#8 Tangelo may not have beaten a great field in her last start at Santa Anita but she certainly was visually impressive.  Relatively lightly raced with just 10 starts, the four year old daughter of Square Eddie earned a career top number in winning virtually gate-to-wire while actually coasting home in the final sixteenth, and if she can handle this mini-marathon trip (against this group we suspect she can), she should be tough to beat right back.  We’d like to see Gutierrez put her on the lead again.  #3 Halljoy was a respectable third in the Possibly Perfect Stakes at Santa Anita at 12 furlongs so she won’t be disadvantaged by the trip; she returns to the first-level allowance conditions, retains Bejarano, and likely will draft into a good, stalking spot.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference to Tangelo.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: None

Pass – No Play

Though we hardly ever recommend the strategy, this race probably needs to be bought.  There is simply nothing to trust among 10 starters in the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 mile claimer for fillies and mares.  #2 Kantina Kowgirl; #4 Quick Navigator, and #10 Teasing Moment all have certain credentials to make them dangerous, yet their trainers’ combine record in 2015 is 4-for-138.  #6 I Heart You is the morning line favorite at 5/2, yet she has failed in four straight races as the public choice and is making her fifth straight start for a different trainer than the one she had in her previous race.  #1 West Coast Storm comes off a win, but she was able to set very slow fractions in that race and is facing much more heat today, while #8 Hot and Pleasing also won her last start, but that was nearly six months ago.  Yes, somebody will win, maybe one of the four we didn’t even mention.  Good luck!