IT’S OFFICIAL

The July 21, 2015 Edition

DOLLARS AND SENSE: It might be considered sporting for new owner Taylor Made Farm to race California Chrome as a 5-year-old, but it also might make some financial sense, assuming the 2014 Derby and Preakness winner can return to top form after being sidelined for the remainder of this year with a bone bruise injury.

I really have no idea what California Chrome’s stud fee would have been in 2016, but for the sake of discussion let’s estimate the son of commercially-challenged Lucky Pulpit would stand in the $30,000 range (Taylor Made currently offers five solid, attractive stallions, and all are reasonably priced).  Furthermore, let’s assume an absolute best case scenario in which Taylor Made secures 100 live foals at that price, resulting in a gross revenue of $3 million.

Winning the Dubai World Cup alone is worth a gross $6 million.  California Chrome finished second in this year’s race (earning $2 million), and who’s to say he wouldn’t have some kind of chance to win it next year? 

But even if that’s not the path that Taylor Made and trainer Art Sherman will take – they’re now in charge of running the asylum, not the inmates – there still will be plenty of lucrative opportunities in the States for the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner not only to generate revenue but to reinforce his reputation.  The $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic – he was a close third in it last year – returns to his favorite track, Santa Anita.  Also on the West Coast there are such $1 million races as the Big ‘Cap and the Pacific Classic (a healthy California Chrome certainly would be among the favorites in this year’s renewal at Del Mar).   There are a number of other valuable races on dirt and turf nationwide that could be in the game plan, as well.

Yes, there are significant insurance premiums that must be paid plus the expenses of keeping the horse in training for another year, but California Chrome’s purse earning potential as a 5-year-old make the decision more than reasonable.  And, from purely a fan’s standpoint, it will also be a lot easier to once again embrace one of America’s most popular horses again now that he’s owned and managed by people who are easy to cheer for. 

FAMILY MATTERS - Pretty N Cool was expected to break her maiden at first asking the Del Mar Sunday sixth race, a five furlong sprint for juvenile fillies; she’d impressed the private clockers in a number of workouts leading up to the race and predictably left at even money despite the field containing several other well-regarded, fast-working first timers.   The Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Scat Daddy broke sharply and dominated on the front end to record a 95 Beyer number, best of the year so far for a two year old of any sex.  Of course, speed figures earned at five furlongs can be meaningless – and this was over an off track, no less – but clearly she’s the leading contender for the Del Mar Debutante until something faster shows up. 

Pretty N Cool is the first foal from Stayclassysandiego, a precocious Rockport Harbor filly in her own right just four years ago.  She won her debut at Hollywood Park in June of her juvenile season while racing for $40,000 and was claimed out of the race by trainer Peter Miller, for whom she finished third in the Landaluce Stakes but then went unplaced in her next four starts before calling it a career.  Stayclassysandiego was sold to Nancy Shuford at the Keeneland November sale in 2012 for $120,000 while carrying Pretty N Cool; the filly brought $160,000 at last year’s Keeneland September sale.   There are more on the way; Stayclassysandiego has a yearling filly by Blame (named Classydame) and foaled a Lemon Drop Kid filly earlier this year.

The race that Pretty N Cool won figures to be productive.  Noteworthy among the also-rans was the performance by third place finisher Imflatoutsweet, a daughter of Sky Mesa trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  Outrun early but finding her best stride midway on the turn, she kept on nicely through the lane to finish eagerly while clearly wanting a lot more than just five furlongs. 

Trainer Phil D'Amato had a nice first-out winner on opening day when Gloryzapper overcame a slow start to defeat a strong straight maiden field of 3-year-old fillies in the ninth race.  The 81 Beyer number was par for the level but the daughter of Gloryzapper had to overcome a slow to start to do earn it and likely has better in her.  She’ll run long, too.

A filly to watch closely that finished up the track in the Gloryzapper race is Send Me A Sign, a debuting daughter of Include who was just getting her feet wet in an educational run sprinting.  The Ron Ellis-trained filly broke slowly and was out-footed early, took hold entering the lane and was really picking up steam before being sideswiped and completely eliminated at the 3/16^th pole, eventually winding up 10^th, beaten 23 lengths.  The official chart says she was “bumped.”  Trust me, it was a whole lot more than that. 

IT FIGURES - Trainer Michael Stidham has a stakes quality 3-year-old filly prospect in Zipessa, the winner of a Del Mar first-level allowance on Friday.  The daughter of City Zip broke her maiden at first asking against nothing at Arlington Park in late May sprinting on the all-weather and earned a strong 82 Beyer.  This time, against a considerably tougher group at a mile on turf, she stalked the pace in hand, took control when ready and drew off in powerful fashion while shading 12 seconds for the final furlong.  In the only two-turn turf race of the day, Zipessa was assigned a Beyer number of 80, two points less than her maiden win in Chicago.  

Assuming the figure is accurate – and since she ran .25 seconds faster than the previous day Oceanside Stakes winner Soul Driver (93 Beyer) over the same course and distance with the same run-up we doubt it is – should we assume that Zipessa actually regressed in her second start?  Or, does the number merely reflect the unreliability of bare-bones turf speed figures that don’t take into account race-shapes and final fractions, and ignores the theory that since grass races often are reduced to a quarter of a mile sprint, the winning margin – in Zipessa’s case less than three lengths – often does not accurately reflect the discrepancy in ability between the winner and those finishing behind her?  (See Lady Eli, Wonder Again Stakes, Belmont Park, May 31)

Let’s not forget that speed figures – no matter which ones, if any, you employ – are designed to tell you what a horse actually did, not necessarily what he or she is capable of doing.  That’s for the handicapper to project.  To do that, you have to watch the races – and know what you’re looking at – and let your own skill and experience guide you.

THIS WEEK’S DEL MAR BLACK BOOK

Doodetta (July 17, 5^th race) – Won a strong first-level turf downhill turf sprint last month and then found five furlongs too sharp when a fast-finishing fifth while being steered through heavy traffic in the final 70 yards.  Galloped out strongly and was in front soon past the wire.  Vastly improved for Drysdale and should have no trouble handling two-turns, her sprint pedigree notwithstanding. 

I’mflatoutsweet (July 19, 6^th race) – As mentioned above, she was fanned wide into the lane but kept on nicely when third to Pretty N Cool in the highest rated 2-year-old race in North America so far this year.  She’s the first foal from Miesque winner Neversaidiwassweet, so we’ll assume two-turns and turf are in her future.

Indian Nate (July 16, 2^nd race) – Lightly-raced five-year-old has never – let me repeat that, never – sprinted in his 13-race career.  Would love to see Sadler employ the route-to-sprint angle against $12,500 types and then let him settle early and cut him loose late.  It’s worth a try.

Send Me a Sign (July 16, 9^th race) – As mentioned above, the daughter of Include was finding her best stride at the head of the lane before being eliminated by a filly that made a right hand turn just in front of her.  The trouble line doesn’t do her justice.  Watch the video.

Tengas Ransom (July 17, 4^th race) – Debuting California-bred juvenile lost his composure in the gate, became fractious and had to be re-loaded, then veered in at the start to be off  slowly from the rail.  From there on he ran very well to finish second behind the more experienced Getoffmyback, staying on eagerly in the final sixteenth while rallying between horses in the final stages.   Next time.

Turnover (July 19, 7^th race) – Took up at the start to lose early position, then was forced extremely wide throughout while appearing to dislike the sloppy footing and never really leveled yet still managed to finish third behind Indexical in a strong two-other-than sprint.  The Baffert-trained son of Big Brown has yet to be tried over a distance of ground or turf (he’s out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare), so there are still many options to explore.  Lightly-raced 4-year-old still has plenty of upside.