JULY 18, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $24 investment

1st race: 1

2nd race: 1, 3, 4, 6

3rd race: 1, 7

4th race: 2, 3, 7

5th race: 2, 5

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Mr. Cartagena

Three of the six entrants in this main track miler exit the same race, the June 18 3^rd at Santa Anita that had a very lopsided race-shape (the second half mile was run almost 40 lengths slower than the first half mile).  I’m thinking it wasn’t much of a heat, so let’s look elsewhere.  #1 Mr. Cartagena (7/2), was a reasonable 4^th down the hill against tougher starter’s allowance foes last month and returns to what may be his preferred surface (dirt).  Second off the claim for Belvoir, the Pulpit colt won the only main track outing in his five-race career when beating bottom-rung maiden claimers at Santa Anita in good style, overcoming significant early trouble to rally wide and win going away.  A solid fit in the speed figure department while drawing the rail and retaining Prat, Mr. Cartagena is realistically spotted and should draft into a pace prompting/forcing spot in a field without much early speed.  Somebody has to win the opener and it might as well be him. 

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Macho Sox; 3-I Don’t Care Who; 4-Eldorado Prado; 6-Knock Em Flat

We’re going 4-deep in our rolling exotics, which means our confidence level isn’t very high. I am, however, quite intrigued by the Bay Area shipper #4 Eldorado Prado (6-1).  He’s making his first ever start on dirt in his first-off-the-claim for John Martin (31% with this angle) and in a field that should produce decent early fractions, the El Prado gelding look dangerous from off the pace.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’s offering a bit of value.  #1 Macho Sox (7/2), first off the claim for Miller (excellent 22%), is fresh from a career top win last month with a good stalking trip and from the rail he should be either on or near the lead once again.  #3 I Don’t Care Who (3-1) was overmatched in a strong first-level allowance miler last month but isn’t today and seems quite capable of rebounding in his second-off-the-claim for Sadler.  If you draw a line through his turf/synthetic starts, he’s a very consistent 16-5-1-4 in his career and is a strong fit on speed figures.  #6 Knock Em Flat (4-1) is a first-off-the-claim for Puype (32%, strong flat-bet profit) and is fresh and working very well, so you have to include him as well.  Tough heat.

THIRD RACE (3:11 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Toews On Ice; 7-Rockin Bayou

#1 Toews On Ice worked five furlongs in 58 1/5 seconds for Baffert five weeks ago but the decision was made to wait until Del Mar for his unveiling.  If he leaves cleanly from the rail, he should be a strong factor every step of the way.  #7 Rockin Bayou breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS April Sale and has been consistently sharp in the a.m. for Mullins after arriving in California.  The son of Forefathers lands Smith, who was aboard in that recent 46 3/5 seconds gate work.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and feel fairly confident that we’ll survive and advance.

FOURTH RACE (3:42 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Gabriel Charles; 3-Midnight Storm; 7-Finnegans Wake

#3 Midnight Storm (8/5) won the Del Mar Derby over this course and distance last year and must be respected, though his defeat at even money to Talco in the Shoemaker Mile last month was without an excuse.  We have to use him in our rolling exotics.  However, our gamble in the straight pool will be with #2 Gabriel Charles (5-1), himself a Del Mar Derby winner two years back.  This will be his third start off a layoff and the son of Street Hero progressed nicely when third in the American Stakes in early May.  In that race he displayed his old late kick and without traffic trouble would have been in the picture.  The Mullins-trained horse is reunited with his preferred jockey (Smith) and has really perked up in recent workouts.  We won’t try to talk you off #7 Finnegans Wake (2-1) if you like him; the Miller-trained horse is a perfect one-for-one over this course and he can be forgiven for not really threatening when experimenting on dirt in the Gold Cup last time out.  He’s certainly worth using in rolling exotic play if your budget allows you to go three-deep.

FIFTH RACE (4:10 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Quality Chimes; 5-Allison Cole

#2 Quality Chimes (2-1) seems logical and could go lower than her 2-1 morning line.  The problem, of course, is that she’ll be a short price not really due to her own ability but rather by default; this looks like a woefully weak group for older maiden-claiming fillies and mares.  I’m also going to toss in #5 Allison Cole (10-1), though nothing that she has done recently in the morning would inspire confidence.  However, she did look pretty good breezing last year at the Barretts sale (where she brought $40,000) so there’s that hang your hat on if you’re looking for an alternative.  We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics but otherwise be very conservative.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Ernest Shackleton; 6-Frat Boy; 7-Trifecta

This is a grass grab bag requiring a spread; we’ll use three but feel free to go deeper if you can afford to.  #7 Trifecta (4-1) is a committed closer, and that style always is compromised on the Golden Gate turf course, which favors runners close to the lead (or better yet, on it).  We’re going to assume that his style will be more effective here.  #6 Frat Boy (4-1) is moving way up in class off a $20,000 claiming dirt at Keeneland, but he won on grass at Gulfstream Park, so the switch in surface is no consequence.  He’s also a first-time gelding, so you have to use him.  #3 Ernest Shackleton (7/2) fits nicely at this level and comes off a solid effort; he should be in the firing line when it matters.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Go Long; 4-Iron Rob; 5-Irish

This maiden five furlong dash has one colt with a prior race and seven first time starters.  The one with the experience, #3 Go Long (3-1), flashed good zip before weakening in his debut and logically should be fitter today.  He probably can’t handle a good colt, but there may or may not be one in here.  We liked the way #4 Iron Rob (6-1) breezed at the OBS sale (he went 10 1/5 seconds with a short run-up to the pole) and his local drills have been impressing the private clockers.  This barn, in its present form, is hard to take, but this colt seems to have enough ability to be dangerous.  #5 Irish (7/2) has trained fast for Dollase but may be more of a closing type; he’s certainly fit and warrants consideration.  We’ll try to survive using just these three, but in an unclassified field nothing would surprise us.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Elektrum; 7-Istanford

#3 Elektrum (7/2) has plenty going for her and seems ready to win the first stakes of her career.  An excellent fourth (beaten just over a length) in the Gamely-G1 in late May at Santa Anita, the daughter of High Chaparral lacked a clear path in the final furlong and really couldn’t be ridden; otherwise, she would have been in the photo.  Training well since that race and switching to Espinoza, the Sadler-trained import likely will have plenty of pace to compliment her late-running style, and with good racing luck should be along in time.  As a saver we’ll also include #7 Istanford (5-1), perfect in two starts over this course last year and always a threat if she’s allowed to be the controlling speed.  Freshened since April, she lands her favorite pilot (Bejarano) and sports a bullet half mile work over this course just four days ago.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 8-Dr. Fager’s Gal

Though she was beaten more than five lengths by Ben’s Duchess (third yesterday against tougher) in a similar spot last month at Santa Anita, #8 Dr. Fager’s Gal (4-1) earned a strong speed figure and actually ran quite well.  She has more early zip than Pedroza seems willing to allow her to show; hopefully he won’t guzzle her this time while taking advantage of her comfortable outside draw in a field without a whole lot of early speed.  The Hollendorfer-trained filly continues to look sharp in the morning and seems to have a bit more upside than most in this group, so we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Seve’s Road; 5-Zinvor; 7-The Gomper

This is a very strong entry-level allowance race restricted to 3-year-olds and it may take a stakes-quality performance to win it.  Bejarano opts for #7 The Gomper (5/2) over #3 Seve’s Road (5-1) but there’s really very little that separates them.  The Gomper closed against moderate fractions and had to overcome some traffic to finish second in a similar spot at Santa Anita last month and the extra half furlong of today’s race shouldn’t hurt.  In a race that should produce a faster than par pace, his late kick should be effective.  The same can be said for Seve’s Road, a progressive stretch-runner switching to Baze.  The son of Quality Road has started five times and in each of his outings his number has improved.  #5 Zinvor (6-1) makes his first start since being transferred to the Kitchingman barn (from Sadler) and is more than capable of winning with his best race (see April 4, SAX 6^th).  The Tribal Rule gelding has good tactical speed and should draft into an ideal second flight position and then have every chance to pounce.