JULY 17, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $18 investment

1st race: 2, 3, 7

2nd race: 7, 8

3rd race: 8, 11

4th race: 2

5th race: 7, 8, 11

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Navy Hymn; 3-Last One Standing; 7-D. Shifflett

Miller has superior stats with debuting maiden claiming juveniles and appears to have a live on in today’s opener.  #3 Last One Standing breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat at the OBS April sale and his subsequent San Luis Rey Downs work tab should have him plenty fit.  This is a realistic spot for a colt that brought $45,000 at auction three months ago.  #2 Navy Hymn displayed good zip and put away his pace rival in mid-stretch before being blown away by an impressive winner in his debut; with that race under his belt he’s clearly the best of the prior runners and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.  #7 D. Shifflett represents stranger danger from the Midwest for Stidham.  His workouts over the all-weather track at Arlington Park indicate ability and with win-early breeding and Bejarano in the saddle this gelding appears well-meant.

SECOND RACE (4:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 7-Big Sugar Soda; 8-Half Dome Dude

This is a difficult bottom-rung claimer and we’re going to tread lightly, using just two in our rolling exotics (if you’re a big ticket player feel free to spread).  #7 Big Sugar Soda is a sneaky New Mexico invader and Miller has won a bunch of races with these shippers in the past several months.  The Ready’s Image gelding is a first-time blinker play with past numbers that are good enough to win; additionally, he’s a closer in a race that promises to have a pace meltdown.  #8 Half Dome Dude may have been a tad short in his recent comeback against tougher in a hot race for the level; this drop to the bottom is warranted and from his cozy outside draw Pedroza should be able to draft into a second flight, stalking spot behind the dueling speed.  If he has a forward move in him, the Kitchingman-trained gelding looks dangerous at a square price.  The gamble here is that #2 No Contingency and #3 May B will negate each other on the front end and if that scenario develops both ‘Soda and ‘Dude will have every chance to capitalize.

THIRD RACE (5:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 8-Ghost of Navigator; 11-Proud Captive

#11 Proud Captive returned from a year layoff and ran better than the line will show when sixth, beaten six lengths, against tougher in a two-turn turfer at Santa Anita.  The Ellis-trained gelding drops to the bottom, retains Perez, and sports four workouts since raced, so we’re expecting a significant forward move against a very modest field.  The outside post shouldn’t be an issue, so if he leaves at anywhere close to his morning line he’ll offer significant value in the straight pool.  #8 Ghost of Navigator is a first-time gelding adding blinkers and his most recent dirt race (against straight maidens in March) wasn’t too bad.  He’s actually a fit on figures and should at least outrun his odds. 

FOURTH RACE (5:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Getoffmyback

In his debut last month at Santa Anita against a similar field of state-bred juveniles, #2 Getoffmyback was off slowly and fell back to last down the backside, then took hold on the turn and finished strongly but too late while probably best in a rather promising performance.  The son of Good Journey seems certain to step forward today; let’s just hope that he breaks with his field today.  The first time starters in the lineup don’t really inspire and the other logical contender, Captain Akers, probably doesn’t have all that much improvement in him.  Let’s make Getoffmyback a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his 3-1 morning line odds.

FIFTH RACE (6:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 7-Xoxo; 8-Doodetta; 11-Ben’s Duchess

#11 Ben’s Duchess was spectacular beating a first-level allowance field last month and looks capable of moving up a notch and winning again, the switch in surface and the poor outside post notwithstanding.  The daughter of Munnings has an ideal stalking style and there’s no reason she won’t be just as effective on the sod.  #8 Doodetta left her previous form behind with a smart downhill turf score against softer last month and though this five furlong trip might be a tad sharp, she looks like the most dangerous of the closers.  #7 Xoxo appears to be the quickest of the quick and has history of firing fresh, and there’s every reason to believe she’ll return as good as she left, if not better.  The daughter of Majestic Warrior, like many of these, is unproven on turf but at this abbreviated trip the surface isn’t likely to matter much.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give the edge to Ben’s Duchess on top and probably use her on an extra ticket or two.

SIXTH RACE (6:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Wasted at Midnight; 6-Baruta

#6 Baruta may be the most dependable in this six runner field, and that’s saying something for a mare that began her North American career by finishing second six straight times.  However, she’s gotten the message of late and was at her sharpest in her most recent score down the hill at Santa Anita.  There’s nothing wrong with her dirt track form, either, so we doubt the surface switch will matter and her outside post that should allow Prat to pick his spot.  #2 Wasted at Midnight, the “other” Mandella entrant, squandered a perfect trip when second in the low-rated Desert Stormer Stakes that saw the 43-1 winner Amaranth come back to beaten 22 lengths in the Great Lady M. Stakes.  ‘Midnight is a trier and will run her race but she doesn’t strike us as really not much upside.  We’ll toss her in as a savor, nothing more.

SEVENTH RACE (7:00 PT) – GRADE: A-

Use: 6-Majestic Heat; 7-Zipessa

#7 Zipessa won like a future star in her debut at Arlington Park in late May, overcoming traffic to the head of the lane before exploding when clear to draw off with power and authority.  Even the strong speed figure that she earned that day doesn’t do her justice, and considering her pedigree (City Zip x Horse Chestnut mare) she can be expected to move forward considerably under today’s conditions, routing on turf.  A consistent, healthy work tab since her win and the presence of Bejarano in the saddle are other plusses that make her a logical straight play and a potential rolling exotic single.  #6 Majestic Heat won like a good thing in her debut six months ago; she easily handled a state-bred field on turf but then disappeared.  She clearly can fire fresh and we know that she’s not much of a worker (she was 17-1 in her debut), so the daughter of Unusual Heat deserves consideration as a back-up or saver.  But the main punch goes to Zipessa.

EIGHTH RACE (7:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Precious Time; 10-Rockin Dorita; 11-Melinda’s Girl

This appears to be a stronger than par race for older maiden special weight fillies and mares and contains at least three major contenders.  #11 Melinda’s Girl has been burning up the track at Golden Gate Fields for her racing debut and arrives fit and ready to win at first asking for super trainer John Martin, who rarely ventures south but must be feared when he does.  There have been plenty of opportunities for this daughter of Harbor the Gold to debut in her own backyard but she’s here, and that says it all.  #10 Rockin Dorita is a whole lot better than her debut indicates and will show it today if she can break with field and avoid trouble.  A series of very impressive workouts since her debut debacle should have her on edge, and she also has that blinkers off angle that always catches our eye.  #5 Precious Time is a debuting filly by Grazen from the Miyadi barn; she’s shown enough in the morning to indicate ability and many first-timers from this stable run better than they work.