JULY 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $9 investment

1st race: 7

2nd race: 7

3rd race: 1, 2

4th race: 3, 7, 9

5th race: 3, 7, 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 7-Oil

Though #7 Oil just failed at 4/5 in a similar spot, it was a strong race for the level and the speed figure came up strong, so we’ll give this Miller-trained gelding a chance to make amends, especially from the favorable outside draw.  Two easy workouts since that race keeps him on edge, and the son of Tribal Rule is reunited with Espinoza, who was aboard in an eight-length maiden claiming win three races back.  At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, this 3-year-old gelding won’t offer much in the way of value in the straight pool but we can still make him a rolling exotic single.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Where’s Eddie

#7 Where’s Eddie was very well-meant in his debut and ran a winning race in defeat when collared right near the wire in a straight maiden state-bred dash down the hill at Santa Anita last month.  The son of Square Eddie cut out very fast splits under severe pressure to the top of the lane, shook off his pace rivals but couldn’t quite hang on while changing leads four times in the final furlong as if to indicate he wasn’t quite handling the turf.  A good series of steady workouts since that race is a positive sign, as is the switch to the main track.  Let’s make this Cecil-trained colt a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line odds of 5/2.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Serbian Syclone; 2-Jimmy Bouncer

#2 Jimmy Bouncer is undefeated in three starts but unraced since last October.  If he comes back as well as he left, he’ll be hard to beat, and the workout tab looks promising (he’s not really much of a worker, which explains his 18-1 odds in his highly-rated debut win here last year).  The son of Square Eddie is unproven on turf but there’s no reason he won’t handle it; we’re expecting the O’Neill-trained colt to stalk #1 Serbian Syclone to the head of the lane and then launch his bid.  ‘Syclone has only one way to go – on the lead for as far long as he can hold it – and at this abbreviated sprint trip the Miller-trained colt will take some catching.  He was a strong third in a legitimate sprint stakes on turf up north last time out and probably won’t need much better than that to win here.  They’re tough to separate but we’ll give Jimmy Bouncer a very slight nod on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Tequila Mary; 7-One Bye Two; 9-Tumbleweedprincess

This maiden claiming five furlong sprint for juvenile fillies looks treacherous and probably requires a spread.  We’ll use the three listed above; feel free to include a few more if your budget allows.  #3 Tequila Mary had a nightmarish trip in her debut up north – some of her trouble was self-caused – but still finished eagerly to be second and vans to Del Mar with a legitimate chance to win with any kind of improvement.  In that first outing she was very rank and couldn’t be ridden down the backstretch while quickly falling from early contention, but then found her proper stride into the lane and finished eagerly despite lacking a clear path inside the sixteenth pole.  The daughter of Aragorn certainly can do better today and goes for the always-potent Hess/Desormeaux team.  She’ll probably leave a bit lower than her morning line of 5-1, but we’ll take it if we can get it.  #7 One Bye Two removes blinkers in an attempt to get her to relax early; she’s a short-striding butterball and is sloppy changing leads, so she’ll be a hard one to trust.  However, with her kind of zip coupled with the equipment change, the Harrington-trained filly probably needs to be used somewhere.  #9 Tumbleweedprincess drops again in class seeking her proper level and may have found it today,  Making her first start for O’Neill, the Forest Command filly should be within striking range throughout and based strictly on speed figures she’s a solid fit at this level.  Tequila Mary gets top billing in the straight pool but it’s the kind of race where anything and everything is possible.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Land Over Sea; 7-Warm Endowment; 8-Red Stich

The known element isn’t overly inspiring so let’s take a shot with a fresh face at a big price.  #8 Red Stich (10-1 morning line) is bred to run long on turf on both sides of her pedigree and we love her work tab – a series of longer, slower drills mixed in with some speed work.  Perez has been on this filly in the morning a few times, so he knows her well, and while Mullhall’s record with first-time starters isn’t very good, this daughter of Decarchy seems primed for a huge run right off the bat.  #3 Land Over Sea ran okay in her debut – not great, but okay – and certainly has a right to improve with experience.  The pedigree suggests the distance and surface should be within her scope and a nice half mile move since her debut gives reason to believe she has a forward move in her.  #7 Warm Endowment, a solid runner-up in her debut with a perfect, ground-saving trip, is another likely to improve under these conditions.  She’s a daughter of Unusual Heat from a mare by Lemon Drop Kid, so she has to move on turf, right?  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while hoping to get Red Stich home at a nice price.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Lucky Student; 3-Bonus Spin; 8-Anita Marie

#3 Bonus Spin is a dangerous comebacker that can beat this field if she returns as well as she left.  Off the track since last October but showing enough in the morning for Mullins to indicate she’s retained all of her old speed, the daughter of Hard Spun should draft into an ideal second flight position, ready to pounce.  Baze has been out to work her in the morning, another positive.  Her morning line odds of 5-1 seem fair enough.    #8 Anita Marie has been away since February of ’14 but she returns protected and is another training like she’s fit and ready.  First or second in 10 of 19 career starts, she’s always been a consistent sort when properly spotted and may be a better type this time around for new trainer Puype.  She looks very live under Nakatani.  #1 Lucky Student may be the quickest in the field but must leave from the rail, so she’d better come out running.  If she can shake loose early, she might get brave.  We’ll including all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Bonus Spin on top.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Kyankes; 7-Housemaker; 8-Belle Et Bete

This is an extremely difficult, wide open $40,000 claiming turf miler for 3-year-old fillies.  Nothing would surprise us.  We’re going three deep but if you only have the funds to spread just one race on the program, this is the one to do it.  #3 Kyankes is trying turf for the first time and with Brahms on the bottom of her pedigree she has a right to like it.  The Baltas-trained filly is drawn nicely inside and is reunited with Bejarano, who has gotten plenty of run out of her in the past.  She’s a fit on numbers and seems as good as any, so her morning line odds of 5-1 are about what you’d expect.  #8 Belle Et Bete ran quite well down the hill in a high priced claimer while earning a career top speed figure two races back but then flattened out badly when moved up in class to the first-level allowance ranks.  She’s dropping to her lowest level today, has trained well of late for Gallagher, and switches to Smith.  Look for her to be doing her best work from off the pace.  #7 Housemaker exits an infinitely tougher race opening week and should improve against this group.  She has enough tactical speed to land in a good second-flight spot and Graham stays aboard. 

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Shakhari; 2-George’s Main Man; 10-Jimmy’s Date

#2 George’s Main Man has the perfect stalking style for this six and one-half furlong trip and he’s lightly-raced, improving, and training well for Puype.  Prat returns and gave this gelding the proper ride when winning from a lesser group last month at Santa Anita.  We’re expecting a forward move today, one that’s good enough for a score right back.  #10 Jimmy’s Date is one of those dangerous New Mexico invader you have to consider.  He’s got a lovely outside draw and Talamo should be able to pick his spot.  A couple of strong workouts over this track indicate he’s spot on.  #1 Shakahari is stuck on the rail but if he can somehow negotiate a good trip – and the rail isn’t as dead as it has been so far this meeting – the Cerin-trained gelding will be a major player.  He’s pretty much a one-dimensional speed horse and from that post there are no options, he’ll have to pop and go.  The extra half-furlong of this race won’t do him any favors, either, but we’ll still toss him in, at least as a saver.