JULY 24, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $9 investment

1st race: 1, 2, 6

2nd race: 2, 6

3rd race: 3

4th race: 4

5th race: 5, 7, 9

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Rush of Day; 2-Jazzed; 6-Fashioned Gem

The Friday opener is a soft maiden claimer for older fillies and mares that requires a spread.  We’ll go three deep but not with a great deal of confidence.  #2 Jazzed, second in a similar spot two runs back, is reunited with Baze and is a strong fit on speed figures.  She’s probably the most reliable of the three, so we’ll put her slightly on top.  #6 Fashioned Gem chased a much tougher straight maiden group down the hill at Santa Anita in her debut and today is realistically dropped in class and switched to the main track by Glatt.  Her workouts since that race show spark, she makes a positive rider switch to Prat, and seems sure to improve.  #1 Rush of Day, away since last November, returns for Stute in a logical spot, though her rail post doesn’t do her any favors, especially if she had to deal with the dead rail that existed yesterday.  On the plus side, her debut main track sprint wasn’t bad, a recent bullet six furlong workout indicates fitness, and the daughter of Warrior’s Reward clearly doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. 

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Chief of Staff; 6-Storm Comin Thru

#2 Chief of Staff exits the best race and returns to entry-level state-bred allowance company while shortening to a mile, returning to dirt, and switching to Bejarano.  A repeat of his race before last – a strong runner-up effort at this level with a career top speed figure – should be good enough to win.  We’ll also use #6 Storm Comin Thru, a beaten favorite when third under these conditions in early June at Santa Anita but capable of better and arguably the most dangerous of the closing types. 

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Carlos Dangerous

On pure form #3 Carlos Dangerous lays over this field and seems like a logical rolling exotic single.  The state-bred gelding faced infinitely tougher company in his first two races and the class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming should make the winning difference.  Additionally, the Bonde-trained gelding switches to Bejarano, sports a healthy work pattern since his last race, and should dominate from gate to wire, though probably at lower odds than his morning line of 5/2.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Tribal Tribute

#4 Tribal Tribute, first off the claim for Puype and making his first start since a pair of impressive turf scores at this level at Golden Gate Fields in late spring, seems primed for another huge run.  Thoroughly genuine and consistent, the Tribal Rule gelding has finished first or second in half of his 22 career starts and now goes for a trainer who has superior stats with first-off-the-claims.  At 3-1 on the morning line he’s our second straight play and rolling exotic single on today’s card.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 5-Win Quietly; 7-Pefiolo; 9-Ten Carat Rock

This is a tough restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming miler requiring a spread; the three listed above all have a right to run well but the only sure way to survive this race is to buy it.  #5 Win Quietly shows up from the Midwest with decent form and speed figures that make him a fit; he’ll get the patient ride he needs from Nakatani and probably has a bit more room to improve than most of the others.  We’ll put him slightly on top; his morning line of 5-1 seems reasonable.  The poorly drawn #9 Ten Carat Rock is a late-running gelding who never seems to get any play on the tote, but he’s back with Baze and his race-before-last (second at 22-1) actually charts very well in this spot.  There should be enough pace to compliment his closing style and at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth consideration.  #7 Pefiolo, claimed in his last pair and now in the Baltas stable, seems capable of moving forward for his new barn and switches to Bejarano.  He should be able to settle in mid-pack and then have every chance to produce his late run.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Cat Burglar; 3-Sky Kingdom; 5-Big John B

#5 Big John B looked like his old self when winning a recent starter handicap at 10 furlongs on turf last month and a recent sharp work over the Del Mar main track indicates he’s holding his edge.  The D’Amato-trained gelding can beat this field if he can duplicate his turf form on dirt.  We’re going to gamble that he can, but certainly not as a single because Baffert has two bullets to fire with proven stayers #3 Sky Kingdom and #2 Cat Burglar.  Sky Kingdom finished a highly-respectable third in the recent Brooklyn Stakes at Belmont Park behind Coach Inge and V. E., both whom would be very short prices in this spot, and after having finished second in this very race the past two years, the veteran son of Empire Maker deserves to finally win it.  Cat Burglar has been stale this year after showing considerable promise as a 4-year-old, but he continues to train well and now that he’s back home in California he’ll most likely come to hand.  The winner should be one of these three with preference going to Big John B.

                            SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Tiz Dynamic

Here’s our third straight play and rolling exotic single of the program, #1Tiz Dynamic.  Though he’s never run this far, we’re thinking the son of Tiznow will enjoy the mini-marathon trip and from the rail it could easily establish a very soft pace (and in the past he’s been very effective as the controlling speed when the situation presents itself).  The veteran gelding knows how to win races, lands Prat, and his numbers up north have been consistently strong and reliable.  Let’s hope we can close to his morning line odds of 5-1.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Bella Breeze; 5-Lady Regina; 7-Let the Girl Go

#7 Let the Girl Go missed in her debut as a short-priced favorite in a similar bottom-rung maiden claimer at Los Alamitos earlier this month but the Owens barn has good stats with second-time starters so we’re going to assume this Arizona-bred filly will improve off the effort.  Pedroza rides her back and should have the daughter of Rocky Bar settled into a good striking position.  #2 Bella Breeze looks easily the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can.  She blew a six length lead at 30 cents on the dollar last time; today, time if she can just slow down a little in the opening quarter, she may be able to roll all the way to the wire.  #5 Lady Regina ran once in the winter of 2014; she was distant second in a five-runner M50000) and then disappeared.  The Baffert-trained filly returns at the bottom following an okay series of workouts at Los Alamitos; we’ll toss in her due to her connections.