JULY 19, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $24 investment

1st race: 1, 5, 8

2nd race: 2, 4

3rd race: 1, 2, 3, 7

4th race: 7, 11

5th race: 8

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Keezheekoni; 5-Little Emma; 8-Sweet Profit

Drying out racetracks often produce a track or pace bias one way or the other, so be on the lookout early in the program to see if one exists.  Until such time as we feel confident about the state of the main track, we’ll suggest you play conservatively.  #8 Sweet Profit (5/2) shows up in a claimer for the first time and the drop to this restricted $25,000 affair seems realistic; the Sadler-trained filly has been tried short, long, and on turf and clearly isn’t going to be an allowance type on this circuit.  Drawn comfortably outside and with enough early speed to settle into a stalking spot, the daughter of Candy Ride may have found her friends today.  #1 Keezheekoni is stuck on the rail but ran well at this level two runs back and switches to Bejarano.  She’s never been all that generous under pressure and her only win came against a five-runner field, but if she can somehow shake loose early she might get brave.  #5 Little Emma earned a competitive figure in her debut win at Los Alamitos but instead of being protected in a starter allowance she’s being dangled again, and that’s not a sign of confidence from her connections.  She does have the right style for this extended sprint trip so if she has one good one left, she could pick up the pieces.  We’ve rated this race a “C” (“least preferred, or pass”).

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Summer Wine; 4-Desert Steel

#2 Summer Wine won at first asking up north in a turf sprint, and while she didn’t beat a whole lot she sure looked good doing it, finishing in powerhouse style while only finding her best stride in the final sixteenth.  This is clearly a tougher assignment but she could easily be up to it.  The one to fear most is #4 Desert Steel.  The daughter of Desert Code exits a much stronger race and at this shortened trip should be on or near the lead throughout.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Light Striker; 2-Wild Bella; 3-Sheza Eyeopener; 7-Tickle Again

The four listed above all are dropping in class and each seems capable of winning with their best effort, thus requiring a spread in rolling exotic strategy.   #1 Light Striker, protected two in starter allowance races after being claimed, shows up for $12,500 today but has worked well since her last race and should fire a good shot.  Assuming the rail isn’t a detriment (after yesterday’s rain it might be deeper down there), the Canani-trained filly should enjoy a second flight, ground-saving trip.  #2 Wild Bella has a dirt track record of 13-1-3-5 which is similar to the synthetic/turf resume so the switch in surface shouldn’t be much of an issue.  Bejarano rides her back, a positive sign.  #3 Sheza Eyeopener exits the same two races as ‘Striker and they’ve taken turns finishing ahead of each other; Garcia stays aboard and should have her running on late.  #7 Tickle Again has speed figures from the Midwest that make her a solid fit and with all that shipping bonus money available you know she’s very well-meant today.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 7-War Destiny; 11-Papa’s Playboy

At age five #7 War Destiny is finally being dropped to the bottom maiden- claiming level and should appreciate the much softer company.  A money burner throughout his five race career, he continues to train well (see bullet 59 3/5 seconds drill at San Luis Rey Downs six days ago) and may get brave in this league.  However, the War Front gelding certainly isn’t one to trust.  #11 Papa’s Playboy is steadily in improving, exits a productive race and continues to look decent in the morning.  The Papa Clem gelding isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but at least he’s moving in the right direction.  We’ll try to get by using just these two but with a low degree of confidence (hence the “C” grade); if you can afford to spread by all means do so.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 8-Perfectly Majestic

At first glance this looks like a typical grass grab bag with at least a half dozen or more having a legitimate chance.  A closer look reveals a potentially excellent wagering opportunity.  #8 Perfectly Majestic is tackling older and he’s unproven around two turns, but the Hess-trained gelding is a progressive sort, and with another forward move could score again.  His downhill turf maiden win last month was visually pleasing and he’s trained sharply since to indicate he’s capable of taking on better foes.  His only prior route attempt – a fourth place finish with some traffic trouble behind Seve’s Road two races back – was better than it looked.  At 6-1 on the morning line we’ll take a swing and make the son of Majesticperfection a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Pretty N Cool

Let’s keep this short and simple.  #7 Pretty N Cool has done everything in the morning like a quality filly; she’s very quick but can finish and has been cranked up to win right now.  This is a fairly hot race with several promising, fast-working juveniles, but it appears Baffert’s filly is a cut above.  She’s 5/2 on the morning line and we hope we can get it; let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Yiannis; 2-Guns Loaded; 6-Turnover

#6 Turnover came back better than he left when out-classing a first-level allowance field at Los Alamitos earlier this month.  The son of Big Brown earned a career top speed figure and shows a sharp blowout over this track since that race.  He also has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint trip and should produce another forward move; that said, this is one of the strongest second-level allowance races of the year and there are others capable of winning as well.  #1 Yiannis has no alternative but to gun from the rail; he’s a stakes winner and has faced high class competition in all three of his career starts.  Freshened since mid-May but working like he’s fit and ready, the son of Midshipman must be considered a major player, poor post notwithstanding.  #2-Guns Loaded returns from the Midwest with figures that fit; he’ll likely settle in the second flight and be ready to pounce when it matters.  We’re very much intrigued by the upside Turnover offers so we’ll put him on top, but all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Sunset Glow; 5-Prize Exhibit; 7-Her Emmynency

#7 Her Emmynency was one of the most impressive juvenile turf winners last year but had to be stopped on prior to the Breeders’ Cup.  She returned in winning form over the all-weather at Arlington Park last month while earning a strong number and returns to turf today for Stidham after a nice, easy breeze around dogs over the local course five days under Bejarano.  #2 Sunset Glow is the only filly to have beaten Her Emmynency, having done by a neck last year in the Del Mar Debutante.  She’s been looking at the likes of Lady Eli and Celestine back east and has run creditably; the daughter of Exchange Rate has never finished off the board in eight career starts and will run her race again today.  #5 Prize Exhibit has the benefit of outstanding recent local form and in fact is the fastest of the three on pure numbers.  Her highly-rated win in the Senorita Stakes at Santa Anita last month was no fluke though this group is clearly deeper and tougher.  We’ll put Her Emmynency slightly on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Secret Command; 8-With the Breeze; 9-Public Policy

This is a competitive extended sprint for nw-2 $16,000 claimers and has at least three major players to strongly consider.  #8 With the Breeze is a first-off-the-claim for Belvoir, adds blinkers, switches to Prat, and will sprint on dirt for the first time in his five race career.  He’s looked sharp in the morning with the hood on, does his best running from off the pace, and has back figures that are good enough to win.  Conditions seem ideal for a major forward move.  #9 Public Policy drops to his lowest level ever and will be a strong pace factor throughout.  The Dixie Chatter gelding always has seemed a bit vulnerable under pressure but he continues to impress in the morning for Sadler and may be facing a little less early heat than usual in this spot.  #2 Secret Command was a respectable second in his comeback in late May but it’s taken almost two months to get him back to the races and he’s dropping from $25,000 to $16,000, not really a healthy sign.  However, the Hess-trained gelding is a dangerous closer on his best day and if this drying out track favors that style he could be heard from late. 

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 8-Second Summer

#8 Second Summer makes his first start since finishing a close fourth to Prospect Park in a hot maiden race last December; his work tab indicates he’s fit and ready and maybe even better this time around.  This appears to be an average maiden race at best, and this son of Summer Bird clearly looks much better than average on pure form.  A very good effort over this course and distance last year as a two-year-old is another plus, as is the presence of Bejarano in the saddle.  At 5-1 on the morning line he offers considerable value in the straight pool as well as a rolling exotic single.