JULY 31, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $54 investment

1st race: 1, 8

2nd race: 4, 8

3rd race: 1, 4, 8

4th race: 5, 7, 9

5th race: 1, 2, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Minster’sadventure; 8-General Ann

We’ll begin the Friday program by doubling the opener in our rolling exotic play, but it’s a race we really don’t have much feel for, so the best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.   #1 Minster’sadventure was beaten as the choice in a quick recent Los Alamitos sprint but earned a career top speed figure in doing so; today she stretches out again and ran well at this trip when runner-up in a similar starter’s allowance race over the Santa Anita main track during the spring.  We’ll put her on top but without any great conviction.  #8 General Ann ran well enough over the Belmont Park turf course to rate a legitimate look in this starter’s allowance for fillies and mares; she has a good stalking style and should fold over into nice pace-prompting position. 

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Skelton Pass; 8-Bellamy Concerto

The known element in this field certainly doesn’t inspire, so let’s go with a fresh face as the top selection.  #4 Skelton Pass has shown some ability in the morning according to the private clockers and appears to be realistically spotted.   The Kentucky-bred gelding could have just as easily shown up in a M20000 and nobody would think twice of it, so we assume he’s done a few things right in the morning for Gaines to choose this spot.  #8 Bellamy Concerto surfaces in a maiden claimer for the first time and this class drop seems to be what he’s always needed.  Drawn comfortably outside with Stevens riding him back, the Mandella-trained gelding won’t have any excuses today.    We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with clear preference to Skelton Pass.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Scuti de Patuti; 4-Summer Veil; 6-True History

This is a split of the third race, a starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares.  #1 Scuti de Patuti broke her maiden in her seventh lifetime start and is steadily improving for Puype.  She lands the good rail and retains Talamo and really won’t have to produce a major forward move to score right back.  #6 True History returns to grass and a repeat of her race-before-last will put her right in the thick of it.  However, she’s a one-paced grinder and needs to be close to the action throughout.  #4 Summer Veil, first off the claim for Kitchingman (solid 20% with this maneuver), has rising speed figures and is stretching out again.  Her only prior two-turn race resulted in her maiden win, so we’ll include her as well in what amounts to a typical grass grab bag.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 5-Scathing; 7-Fantasy of Luck; 9-Lynne’s Legacy

#1 Fantasy of Luck was visually impressive at the Barretts March Sale, breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat without undue pressure.  She doesn’t boast the typical flashy Baffert work tab leading up to her debut, but the daughter of Lucky Pulpit may enough talent to win at first asking.  She was scratched opening day (she drew the rail) but recorded a workout two days later so she’s certainly okay for today.  The lukewarm morning line favorite at 7/2 is #5 Scathing, a daughter of the good speed sire Grazen from the D’Amato barn.  She’s been prepared exclusively at San Luis Rey Downs, so it’s hard to get a line on her, but this stable is solid with first timers so you have to assume she’s live.  #9 Lynne’s Legacy also represents stranger danger; she’s recorded some nice workout times at Galway Downs in Temecula and Cassidy is more than capable of winning with a debut runner.  We’ll certainly prefer Fantasy of Luck on top but this is treacherous affair with lots of unknowns.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Nahem; 2-Al’s Uncle; 4-Jomelo

#1 Nahem is a generous 8-1 on the morning line despite landing Prat and the rail and bringing from Northern California solid, consistent form.  First off the claim for Mathis, who scored yesterday with a similar-type Bay Area shipper, this veteran gelding is most effective in a pace-setting situation though he certainly can stalk and win as well.  #2 Al’s Uncle is an intriguing Churchill Downs shipper for the Hess/Desormeaux team.  He’ll be a late threat with his best effort and a couple of recent sharp workouts over the Del Mar main track is encouraging.  #4 Jomelo, freshened for six weeks and returning to his win level, retains Bejarano and rates a huge look off his sharp score two runs back.  He’s a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar turf course and with good racing luck will be heard from late. 

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Motown Men; 5-Desert Dynamo; 8-Fame and Power

#8 Fame and Power is a listed stakes winner and graded stakes-placed, but he’s still eligible to this second allowance condition and seems the logical favorite in this better-than-par main track miler.  We’re midway through the third week of the Del Mar season and it seems about time for Baffert to start winning some races.  The major concern is that ‘Power is most effective on the lead, but with plenty of front-running speed drawn inside he’ll have to work a little bit early to make the running today.  Can he win from a stalking for second flight position?  Possibly, but that’s not his preferred style.  You have to use him, of course, but he’s certainly no single.  #5 Desert Dynamo followed a highly-rated entry-level allowance win with a strong runner-up performance behind South American stakes winner Kung Fu Mambo at Santa Anita last month; a repeat of either one of his last two starts could make him the one to beat today.  He’s reunited with his win rider, Perez, and a bullet five furlong workout over this track last week is yet another plus.  #3 Motown Men was pitched too high in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita but he returns to reality today and has a triple digit Beyer speed figure to go back to.  He has an excellent pace-stalking style and Baze should have him in the proper position throughout.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; if he’s near his morning line odds of 4-1 Desert Dynamo might be worth an extra ticket or two.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-My Palmilla; 7-Obey

#5 My Palmilla won at first asking and showed quite a bit of moxie in doing so, battling bravely between horses into the stretch and then finding reserve energy late to win like a filly with some quality.  The daughter of Tribal Rule should improve with that race behind her, but she’s facing more early zip today so a forward move, one that she appears capable of making, will be required.  #7 Obey won a visually pleasing race in her debut as well; the Desert Code filly flashed excellent zip to quickly make the running and then won in complete control without being knocked about.  A repeat win against this more competitive group won’t be a surprise.  Let’s give a slight edge to My Palmilla on top – she earned a bit stronger number and her win came over this track – while including both in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Maximus; 3-My Slew; 8-Frensham

This is one of the stronger bottom-rung claiming sprints you’ll on this circuit.  #3 My Slew was beaten as the favorite in a tougher starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos earlier this month but it was Newfound Gold who beat him, so that’s understandable.  Back at his winning level today, the Glatt-trained gelding is reunited with his win rider, Perez, and should be able to settle in the second flight and then produce his run.  The only concern is the shortening in trip – he’s winless in four career starts at five and one-half furlongs on the main track – though he did win at five furlongs on turf back in the day.  #8 Frensham has his issues but a touch of back class and returned to winning form with a nice score opening week at this level.  He should produce a similar effort today with Talamo riding him back.  #2 Maximus earned a giant figure in a runaway win three races back but regressed considerably in two subsequent outings.  He’ drops to the bottom, sports a sharp drill recent drill at San Luis Rey Downs, and could come back to his best today.  We’ll toss him in at 8-1 on the morning line.