OCTOBER 1, 2015 – SANTA ANITA

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

Santa Anita - $16 investment

1st race: 2, 3

2nd race: 2, 5

3rd race: 1, 3

4th race: 1, 5

5th race: 6, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Casuality; 3-Zendai

#3 Zendai shows up in a claimer for the first time and looks well-spotted for a diploma, though at 6/5 on the morning line the Harty-trained gelding certainly offers no value.  He’s never been one to trust – in each of his seven career starts he’s lost ground from the furlong pole to the wire – but against this group he’ll probably get brave.  #2 Casuality broke slowly to fall far back, took hold on the turn, made a menacing move wide into the lane but then failed to change leads and wound up fourth in his debut in a much stronger-than-par bottom-rung maiden claimer at Del Mar in August.  He’s raised considerably in class for his second start in what may be a sign of confidence by Eurton, and seems likely to produce a forward move.  Zendai should be hard to catch but we’ve graded this race C so we’re not planning on getting too involved.

SECOND RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Golds Venice; 5-Miss Star Maker

The second half of the early daily double doesn’t look any more enticing than the opener.  #2 Golds Venice is listed as the 4/5 morning line choice by default; the Miller-trained filly plummets to the bottom while seeking her winning level and based on pure figures she’s found the right spot.  This is her second off a layoff and she should produce a forward move following a troubled try vs. much stronger straight maidens at Del Mar last month.  Even when finishing sixth (beaten eight lengths) in that race she earned a Beyer number seven points better than par for this level, so she’s really going to have to regress to get beat.  #5 Miss Star Maker showed some life when third (moved up to second via disqualification) in a similar bottom-rung seven furlong affair at Del Mar in late August.  If she runs back to that race today she should at least out-finish the others.  Golds Venice certainly gets top billing but in rolling exotic play you may want to include Miss Star Maker on a small saver ticket.

THIRD RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Out of Patience; 3-Market Notes

This is yet another race that we have little interest in.  #1 Out of Patience exits a stronger starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos and earned a fairly decent number when third in his first start in blinkers.  However, he had no real late punch and the race may have flattered him.  The Avila-trained gelding returns to his claim level today while backing up to seven furlongs, and since he’s unproven at this trip we have no great conviction that he’ll be effective, especially from the rail.  Still, in a weak race, he’s a contender, as is #3 Market Notes despite his zero-for-10 lifetime record over the Santa Anita main track.  The Conlon-trained gelding earned a nice figure when producing a sharp late kick to beat a restricted $16,000 field at Del Mar last month and if he can turn in two alike he should be effective right back despite the tougher task.  Rolling exotic players can include both, buy the race, or simply sit it out.

FOURTH RACE (2:28 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Tulira Castle; 5-Broadway Nika

#1 Tulira Castle crushed a $25,000 field in his first-off-the-claim in his last outing at Del Mar but returns on the one-level drop, not a promising sign.  Certainly he can win again with a repeat of his last race but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s really no value to be found.  #5 Broadway Nika beat a much softer $10,000 field at Del Mar in mid-August and was claimed by Miller, who has excellent stats with first-off-claim plays.  The son of Decarchy is triple-jumped in class, so he must be well-liked by his new connections, and with 10 career wins to his credit the veteran gelding certainly knows where the wire is.  Garcia likely will put him on the lead.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotic play; Broadway Nika has the healthier pattern so we’ll give him a slight edge on top.

FIFTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Big Discovery; 7-Broken Up

#6 Big Discovery returns to turf and for the first time gets nine furlongs to work with.  The son of Mr. Big has a significant edge in the speed figure department and we’re expecting Smith to have him along in time.  We’ll also include in our rolling exotics the lightly-raced #7 Broken Up, nosed out (while five clear of the rest) in a straight maiden Golden Gate turf event last month.  This will be just his third career start, so another forward move is likely.  We’ll be quite surprised if the winner isn’t one of these two.

SIXTH RACE (3:32 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 7-Bellamentary; 9-Escapee

#7 Bellementary had the misfortune of hooking a very good prospect in Lucky Folie in her debut and had to settle for second (while more than five clear of the others) in a fast, highly-rated sprint at Del Mar last month.  The good news is that she gets to tackle maidens again, this time around two-turns, and the daughter of Bellamy Road should make the most of the opportunity.  D’Amato has excellent stats with second-time maidens and stretch-out plays, so this filly should do nothing but move forward today, and there’s plenty of value at her morning line price of 5/2 if you can get it.  We’ll save with the Baffert sprint-to-route entrant, #9 Escapee, who seems certain to make the lead after flashing good speed in a pair of Del Mar sprints.  By Street Sense out of an Empire Maker mare, she’s bred to improve a bunch two-turning and Baffert hits at 26% with a flat-bet profit on this angle alone.  At 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth including on a ticket or two in your rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (4:02 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-No Comparison; 4-Codacious; 10-Glory

#10 Glory is bred to love turf (Tapit x Sadler’s Wells) and finally gets a chance to show it in this entry-level downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares.  Fourth in a fast, highly-rated main track sprint at Del Mar in her first outing since April, the Hollendorfer-trained filly retains Smith and should produce a major forward move today following two recent excellent workouts.  Drawn comfortably outside and with back numbers that are good enough to beat this field, she offers excellent value at 4-1 on the morning line.  However, this is a strong race for the level and two others deserve consideration.  #4 Codacious appear to have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter and gets ideal conditions today after winning and then finishing second in a pair of abbreviated grass sprints at Del Mar.  Bejarano stays aboard for Sise and will have the daughter of Desert Code rolling late.  #2 No Comparison graduated for fun in her turf debut at Del Mar (and in her first start since December) and is another that appears ideally suited for this course.  She’s a solid fit on numbers and shows a bullet half mile work over the training track just four days ago.  We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics; however, small ticket players can strongly consider singling Glory.

EIGHTH RACE (4:33 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Public House; 4-Dragon Flower; 7-Sharp Holiday

#3 Public House didn’t earn much of a speed figure when winning her debut at Del Mar but she was visually pleasing in victory and seems quite capable of stepping forward today.  We like the fact that Mulhall is protecting the daughter of Tribal Rule in a starter’s allowance race and that she showed in her only outing the ability to stalk, pounce, and win.  We’ll try her right back at or around her morning line of 5-1.  #4 Dragon Flower has rising speed figures and showed considerable gameness when second, beaten a nose while more than eight clear of the rest, in a similar starter’s event at Del Mar last month.  #7 Sharp Holiday was overmatched in the Barretts Debutante but isn’t today; a repeat of her nice maiden score two races back charts very well with these.  Bejarano stays aboard for Koriner.