AUGUST 30, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $12 investment

1st race: 1, 4

2nd race: 6, 7, 9

3rd race: 1

4th race: 1, 8

5th race: 2, 4

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Big Rosie Brown; 4-Runningwiththelute

#4 Runningwiththelute returns to reality while remaining above her claim level and stretches out to a distance she’s shown she can handle.  She has only one way to go – on the front end – and if she make the lead without being sent hard from the gate she should be tough to catch.  #1 Big Rosie Brown, first off the claim for Eurton, retains Bejarano and figures to draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position.  If ‘Lute fails to see out the trip, ‘Brown could be in the right spot to pick her up.  These are the two we’ll prefer in rolling exotic play with the edge going to Runningwiththelute.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Ain’t No Other; 7-Eddie’s First; 9-Giant Ego

#6 Ain’t No Other joins a low percentage outfit via a claim but retains Bejarano and returns to turf, so the veteran gelding has a right to snap back to good form.  First or second in 21 of 44 starts, the son of Old Topper always gives his best and should be within striking range throughout.  #7 Eddie’s First, now in the Miller barn (strong 24% first-off-the-claim), ran well over this course and distance two runs back and should appreciate the return to grass.  He likes the Del Mar lawn and looks dangerous despite the quick eight day return.  #9 Giant Ego didn’t get the best of runs when beaten just over a length at 38-1 in a tougher spot last month; he’s back at his proper level today and drawn outside where he’ll have clear sailing and every chance.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while giving a slight edge on top to Ain’t No Other.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Stellar Wind

#1 Stellar Wind outclasses this field on pure form and likely will go lower than here morning line odds of 6/5.  Freshened since winning the Oaks in June at Santa Anita, the Sadler-trained filly should be able to settle in behind the leaders and then produce her run.  She’s a no value rolling exotic single.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Chasing the Heat; 8-Maximinus

#1 Chasing the Heat drops to the $10,000 level after finishing second in a strong $16,000 affair and then having a claim voided due to unsoundness.  A satisfactory workout since that race gets him off the vet’s list and at this level the former New Mexico-based sprinter could easily outclass this field, assuming he’s in good enough shape to reproduce his best race.  #8 Maximinus exits a hot race, lands a good outside post and sports a healthy work pattern at San Luis Rey Downs since his last outing.  Graham should have him in an ideal second flight, stalking position.  Clearly, this is a “who-is-feeling-good-today” type of race so proceed with caution and if you’d prefer to do deeper in your rolling exotic play, go right ahead.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Professor Berns; 4-Woody’s Folly

Del Mar doesn’t card too many maiden claiming races on turf, so many of these are trying grass for the first time or are completely unproven over the surface.  #2 Professor Berns shows up for a tag for the first time and his races in straight maiden company weren’t all that bad, so the Gallagher-trained gelding looks like the logical top pick.  He exits a strong race, lands a good inside post and retains Graham, so he should no excuses today.  #4 Woody’s Folly will be one of those making his first start on turf and with good tactical speed and an improving pattern this Spawr-trained gelding is worth using at 5-1 on the morning line.  These are the two we’ll prefer but this is a typical grass grab bag where anything can happen and anybody can win.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Hide My Heart; 6-Always a Chance; 7-Lucky Student

#1 Hide My Heart just crushed a much softer $16,000 nw-2 field and is raised to open $25,000 after earning a powerful speed figure, one that’s actually better than par for this level.  If she can duplicate that performance today from the rail, she can win right back.  #6 Always a Chance, first off the claim for O’Neill, missed at 7/5 against a slightly lesser group after winning impressively on opening day.  She’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and if she gets that type of ride from Gutierrez she could bounce back.  #7 Lucky Student drops a notch for Spawr, lands the cozy outside post and could very well be the controlling speed.  She remains well above her claim level in a sign of confidence and should have every chance to regain her winning form.  All three should be included in your rolling exotics with a bit of an edge going to Hide My Heart.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Fritz Johansen; 7-Hunt; 10-Chiropractor

This turf event appears to have a considerable amount of speed signed on and could set up nicely for the closers.  #7 Hunt is a European invader in the D’Amato barn with strong form in good handicap company in Ireland; he’s a first-time Lasix user and gets Smith, and with all that ship-and-win money available you know he’s very well-meant today.  #6 Fritz Johansen won a visually pleasing race from state-bred foes over this course and distance last month and with another forward move today could be dangerous right back.  He should be able to draft in right behind the leaders, ready to pounce, similar to the type of trip he received when winning.  #10 Chiropractor is a deep closer hoping for a hot pace; the lightly-raced Kitten’s Joy gelding has plenty of room to improve for Proctor should benefit from the race-shape.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Blue Anchor; 8-Strong Like Bull; 11-Sunbeamsfromheaven

#11 Sunbeamsfromheaven launches a comeback for Hollendorfer and if he returns as well as he left he should be able to beat this modest maiden claiming field.  Second, beaten a head, when last seen at Santa Anita in December, the son of Colonel John has been working well for his return at Los Alamitos and should be fit and ready under Bejarano from a comfortable outside draw.  Though his best race came over a mile, this extended sprint trip should actually fit him nicely.  #8 Strong Like Bull is a dangerous first timer from the Miler barn; the works at San Luis Rey Downs seem decent enough and the son of Benny the Bull looked extremely fast when breezing a furlong in 10 second flat way back in May of last year at the Barretts  Sale, after which he brought $50,000 at auction.  #6 Blue Anchor has looked pretty solid in the morning for his first start since March and could easily be a better type this time around for Glatt.  At 5-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use.”

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 8-Native Heart; 9-Long Hot Summer; 10-Gusto Dolce

In a race without much speed, #9 Long Hot Summer should have every chance to control this race from start to finish.  Unable to withstand the late charge of high-quality Prize Exhibit in the Senorita Stakes at Santa Anita in late June, the daughter of Street Boss returns to the conditioned allowance ranks today and will be tough if she’s not pressured early.  Talamo stays aboard for D’Amato.  #8 Native Heart, away for more than a year but training like she’s fit and ready for Gary Mandella, was a decent sort in England as a 3-year-old and if she can duplicate that form in this event she has a strong look.  #10 Gusto Dolce makes her first start on turf in North America after a pair of okay efforts on dirt at Santa Anita.  The switch in surface should be fine – she was a grass winner in France last year – and improvement is likely as she further acclimates. We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two using Long Hot Summer on top.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 8-Divine Tale; 11-Altaira; 2-Kiss My Face

#2 Kiss My Face adds blinkers and drops to the bottom; the Powell-trained filly also lands the good outside post and should be comfortably placed in a pace stalking position.  She has speed figures good enough to win at this level and a couple of nice workouts since her last race.  #11 Altaira returned off a long layoff and ran okay when third of six in a slightly stronger spot earlier this month; she has every right to build on that effort today with Perez staying aboard, and this extended sprint trip should suit her well.  #8 Divine Tale is a grindy sort with the proper style for seven furlongs and the Drysdale-trained mare, in the money in her last four, certainly is overdue for a maiden win.  We’ll prefer Kiss My Face on top while going three-deep in our rolling exotics.