AUGUST 1, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

TODAY’S .50 CENT PICK-5 WAGERING STRATEGY

DEL MAR - $54 investment

1st race: 1, 2

2nd race: 1, 5, 7

3rd race: 1, 2, 8

4th race: 2, 3, 8

5th race: 5, 7

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (2:05 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Indian Nate; 2-American Act

#1 Indian Nate appeared in our first Del Mar “Black Book” column so we certainly like him today, although we were hoping he’d be brought back in a sprint.  The Sadler-trained will instead take advantage of the race conditions (restricted to non-winners of three) that he suits perfectly, so from the rail we’re expecting Espinoza to settle into an ideal pace-stalking, ground-saving trip.  The son of Indian Express earned a career top number when fourth over this track and distance on opening day, and really won’t have to improve much at all to beat this group.  At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s our top pick.  #2 American Act is 2-for-33 with 10 seconds, so he’s never been what you’d call generous.  However, he’s a first-off-the-claim for Miyadi (excellent stats with this angle) and turned in a sharp breeze the other day, so maybe he’s worth using as a saver.

SECOND RACE (2:37 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Warren’s Rail Bird; 5-Tester; 7-Ransom Canyon

#5 Tested exits a tougher starter’s allowance race and shows up in a bottom-rung claimer despite rising speed figures, so there’s a bit of a concern as to his current condition, but if the D’Amato-trained gelding has one good one left he should be tough to beat.  Pereira stays aboard and will give him the patient ride he needs.  #7 Ransom Canyon has raced on dirt only twice – his last two starts at Los Alamitos – and if you can trust the form of his race-before-last you can certainly like him today.  The Purim gelding is a deep closer and with some help up front could produce a winning late kick.  #1 Warren’s Rail Bird looked good winning the first two-turn race of his career at Los Alamitos last month and earned by far a career top number; the question is, does he “bounce” off that effort for low profile connections?  We’ll toss him in but certainly without a great deal of confidence.  This race is loaded with question marks, so we’ll be playing with caution while waiting for better opportunities later in the program.

THIRD RACE (3:09 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Jazzy Josh; 2-Global Magician; 8-Peacenluvpeacenluv

At first glance Miller would seem to have the goods here with two major contenders, and both are drawn comfortably inside.  #1 Jazzy Josh prefers patient handling and certainly didn’t get it when he was sent to the load before stopping badly in an off-the-turfer two weeks ago, a race that should be ignored.  He may show early speed again today whether he really wants to or not – he has the rail and there’s not much speed signed on – but whatever strategy is employed we’re expecting the Kantharos gelding to snap back with a big effort.  All three of his victories have come on either turf or synthetic and today he’s back on grass and back at his winning level.  #2 Global Magician ran well in his first route attempt opening day but leaves that first-level Calbred condition on the table while dropping in for a tag for the first time in a sign that he may be for sale.  Additionally, Baze jumps off and is replaced by Fallon, a terrific European jockey in his day but a winner of exactly one race so far in 2015.  There’s no guarantee that ‘Magician runs better today than he did last time, in fact, he might not run as well.  We’ll protect with him, but that’s about it.  #8 Peacenluvpeacneluv exits a much tougher race – the Oceanside opening day won by Soul Driver – and returns to the $50,000 claiming level for the first time since he broke his maiden (and was claimed) for this price more than a year ago.  He has that blinkers off angle we like so much and makes a positive switch to Talamo, so despite his low percentage connections will toss him in at 8-1 on the morning line.

FOURTH RACE (3:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Yes Yes Baroness; 3-Can Can Babe; 8-Mothernaturespell

We’ll go three-deep in this $25,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies but if you find the need to spread even more, go right ahead.  #8 Mothernaturespell gets top billing following a sharp win at this price against a restricted (nw-2) field at Santa Anita in June, and this open event, while tougher, seems like the logical spot for a reappearance.  She’s drawn comfortably outside and should enjoy a good stalking trip, similar to the one she had in her most recent victory.  A fit on speed figures and with a healthy work pattern since she last run, the daughter of Spellbinder seems clearly the one to beat.  #3 Can Can Babe, first off the claim for Avila, returns at the same level and despite coming off a win adds blinkers today.  If she runs back to her good all-weather form from Northern California she’ll be a major contender, especially if she’s quick enough to make the lead (she’s tough to get by when she does).  #2 Yes Yes Baroness also won her last start in June, but her layoff – seven weeks – looks a bit suspicious, especially since she’s actually dropping a level in class off that victory.  The other negative – she’s won three times during her career and each victory has been followed by a poor performance (perhaps that’s why Kruljac has given her the time off).  At any rate, she’s worth including in rolling exotic play as at least a backup.

FIFTH RACE (4:17 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Look Me in the Eye; 7-Tengas Ransom

#7 Tengas Ransom made our Del Mar “Black Book” following a very good debut performance opening weekend and if he runs back to that race he’ll be tough to beat today.  As mentioned in the column, ‘Ransom threw a fit in the gate and had to be re-loaded, then responded in deep stretch along the rail when room finally developed but ran out of room and settled for second.  Hopefully, he’ll behave himself today and move forward, and today’s extra half-furlong should help, too.  #5 Look Me in the Eye missed as the favorite in his debut in late June but ran well to be third and has every right to move forward.  He switches to Bejarano, shows a couple of easy works over the track, and figures in the battle every step of the way.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Tengas Ransom on top.

SIXTH RACE (4:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Lamontagne; 4-Sensitively; 9-Tale of Papa Nick

These five furlong turf sprints can be won or lost in the first jump or two, so if you’re planning on winning you’d better break with your field.  #4 Sensitively ran lights out in her debut last February – she earned a giant number while winning by a pole – but then in her next start in April she stopped badly, fell, and had to be vanned off.  She returns for D’Amato in a proper spot with works that indicate she’s regained all of her speed, and if she can transfer her dirt form to turf – and there’s no reason she can’t – the daughter of Street Sense can regain her winning form.  Make of it what you will, but Talamo, who had ridden her in both starts, shows up today on longshot #6 D’ya Knowwhatimean while Pereira (who has been on her in the morning) lands the mount on Sensitively.  #9 Tale of Papa Nick may be as quick as anything in the field and although she’s drawn poorly outside, the Baltas-trained filly may be able to get over and clear, or at least, stalk.  This five furlong trip should suit her perfectly.  #1 Lamontagne was a visually pleasing winner sprinting on turf against a $40,000 restricted claiming field at Belmont Park in May; she’s certainly tackling much tougher today but lands the rail and could draft into a nice second flight, ground-saving spot.  Let’s prefer Sensitively on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (5:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Oh Great Idea; 4-One Last Shot; 10-Shakti

This is an open, unclassified juvenile sprint with several of the first-timers impressing in the morning.  Those listed above all appear fit and ready so we’ll try to survive using just these three.  #4 One Last Shot blazed a quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds at the OBS April sale (fastest in the preview session) and has done good work for Baffert both at Los Alamitos and here at Del Mar.  The barn has one single win all meeting – with a first-time starting two-year-old filly on opening weekend - and maybe this daughter of Any Given Saturday can help turn things around.  Miller seems to have a pair of live runners with #2 Oh Great Idea and #10 Shakti both appearing cranked up.  Oh Great Idea sports a bullet gate work over this track a couple of weeks ago that catches the eye while Shakti has done most of her good work away from the limelight at San Luis Rey Downs. We’ll put One Last Shot on top – Baffert has to get hot sometime – and have a few extra tickets with her on top.

EIGHTH RACE (5:40 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Beholder

Here’s everybody’s logical single, #1 Beholder, listed at 6/5 on the morning line but almost certain to leave at odds-on.  It’s nice that Del Mar has kept this stakes in the featured eighth race slot, rather than out of the Pick-6 earlier in the program.  It’s the kind of respect this terrific mare deserves.  There’s no gamble here, of course, unless you have a strong opinion that the favorite is vulnerable, or if you’ve identified who will run second and third.  For the purposes of rolling exotic play, we’ll single Beholder, but if you’re looking to play exactas or trifecta we suggest you give a close to the improving #2 Honey Ride and Mandella’s “other” starter, #9 Gusto Dolce, who should be closing well.  #4 Warren’s Veneda, of course, has a look off her best race but it sure doesn’t seem like she’s quite the same mare as she was during the winter.

NINTH RACE (6:10 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Just Kidding; 7-Perfect Set; 8-Smooth Roller

This is a strong race for entry-level allowance horses with several progressive types bound for better things.  #5 Just Kidding just broke his maiden in career start seven but better is likely for this rapidly improving Eurton-trained colt.  He earned a big figure in his Los Alamitos victory, has come back to look quite good in the morning since that race, and retains Bejarano.  He’s a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.  #7 Perfect Set crushed a $16,000 starter’s allowance field in fast time at Los Alamitos and has really improved since being claimed by Hollendorfer.  He’ll be on the lead or pressing it.  #8 Smooth Roller graduated at first asking with a sharp number at seven furlongs and should be equally effective if not more so over a distance of ground.  Baze stays aboard the Hard Spun gelding who has given every indication in the morning since his win that he’s ready for a forward move.  Very tough race, slight edge to Just Kidding.

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Dylan Ward

#7 Dylan Ward is a seven-race maiden and is making his first start since November, but he catches a moderate field of older straight maiden turf runners and is making his first start for D’Amato, so considerable improvement is likely.  The works at San Luis Rey Downs look solid, Bejarano takes the call, and the 4-year-old son of Artie Schiller returns protected, all positive signs.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get near his morning line of 3-1.