NOVEMBER 29, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Diablo Caballero; 6-Cool Green

#4 Diablo Caballero and #6 Cool Green meet again and look much the best of the others in this maiden special weight state-bred sprint.  ‘Caballero finished first in a similar event in mid-October but was dq’d for shutting off ‘Green in mid-stretch.  Had ‘Green gotten a clean run, he might have won.  These two are difficult to separate – either one can win today – so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise not getting too involved.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Vanlose Stairway; 4-With a Twist; 8-Intoxicating Move

#8 Intoxicating Move returns to her winning level and returns to her favorite turf course; we’re hoping that she can return to her best form as well.  The Carava-trained mare retains Nakatani and will be tough if she runs back to her highly-rated (and visually very impressive) victory over this course and distance during the summer meeting.  She was overmatched two races back in the Swingtime Stakes and was ineffective sprinting down the hill in her last start.  #4 With a Twist looked good beating a lesser field over this course earlier this month and was re-claimed by Hess, always a positive sign.  She’s back with Desormeaux, who has won with her in the past, and the veteran mare, a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar lawn, has a right to be dangerous once again despite the class hike.  #2 Vanlose Stairway comes off a clever win against a lesser field over this course and earned a speed figure that puts her in the hunt right back.  Gonzalez stays aboard for Spawr.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Intoxicating Move on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Purrin’ Proud; 7-Wise Tale

#7 Wise Tale drops from straight maiden to maiden claiming and will stick much better against this group.  Valdez should have him on or near the lead throughout.  #1 Purrin’ Proud has a series of solid sprints under his belt, draws the rail, and stretches out for the first time.  He has the pedigree to stay a mile and his speed figures are rising rapidly.  The winner should be one of these two and both are worth using in rolling exotic play.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Bird E House

This mini-marathon turf affair looks completely chaotic and nothing would surprise us.  We’re intrigued by #1 Bird E House and if you’re a small ticket player you should consider embracing this live 8-1 long shot (however, if you can afford to go deeper by all means do so). Bird E House makes a highly favorable jockey change to Desormeaux after finishing a willing fourth in a fairly contentious starter’s allowance event over this course and distance earlier this month.  He looks like the most dangerous of the deep closing types and may have some improvement in him.  He’s won 25% percent of his career starts, shows a win over this course, and from the rail should get an ideal ground-saving trip.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Perfect Set

#1 Perfect Set was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar when second behind #4 Ike Walker in a starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita last month.  The effort was well below his previous excellent Del Mar form, so we’re thinking that he just didn’t care for the track.  He’s back at Del Mar today and we’re going to assume that he’s ready to resume his winning ways following a string of very impressive recent workouts for Hollendorfer.  Garcia stays aboard, knows him well, and should have this Pleasantly Perfect gelding within striking range throughout at this 10-furlong trip.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Collected; 6-Ninety One Assault; 10-Dressed in Hermes

This is a strong race for juvenile turf milers and the three listed above all are highly promising sorts.  A win by any one of the three would not be surprising, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.  #2 Collected showed a ton of quality in graduating at first asking down the hill at Santa Anita; his moderate speed figure really doesn’t do him justice and we’re expecting him to move forward considerably on the stretch-out.  The son of City Zip has a ton of gas, but with #1 Manhattan Dan also in the field (and likely to gun to the lead from the rail), we’re anticipating that Garcia will employ stalking tactics on the Baffert-trained colt.  Based on pedigree the mile should be within his range and at 8-1 on the morning line there’s considerable value available.  #6 Ninety One Assault ran huge in his debut, missing by a nose after rallying wide and finishing eagerly to just miss.  He should benefit greatly from the outing, and the anticipated hot pace plays into his deep closing style.  He’s another 8-1 shot that has to be seriously considered.  #10 Dressed in Hermes didn’t run badly when fifth of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland and before that captured the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita.  His numbers are rising and Smith will have him doing his best work late. 

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Triple Crown; 4-Hard Gale

#4 Hard Gale is a highly-regarded first timer by Hard Spun with a series of very sharp works at San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato.  The barn is quite strong with debut runners and ‘Gale appears cranked up and ready to go.  We’ll put him on top but also use #1 Triple Crown, a fast-working Miller-trained juvenile, also from San Luis Rey Downs.  The rail is a concern but the stable is clever with first-timers and ‘Crown should be fit and ready.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Hard Not to Like; 3-Recepta; 8-Stellar Path; 9-Filimbi

The Matriarch is loaded with possibilities and a spread in rolling exotic play is required.  #1 Hard Not to Like failed to produce her best form when unplaced in the Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita but she’s clearly capable of winning a race like this with her top effort and the fact that Clement sends her west again indicates she’s back on the beam.  Johnny V. flies out to ride her and from the rail should be able to save valuable ground every step of the way.  At 9/2 on the morning line she’s as good as any.  #3 Recepta was out of her element in the B.C. Mile but is properly spotted against this level of competition and the daughter of Speightstown has a strong look off either of her victories in the Del La Rose and Noble Damsel.  She’s reunited with Trujillo and should settle somewhere in mid-pack, ready to pounce.  #8 Stellar Path comes here fresh from a nice score in the Athenia S. at Belmont Park with a career top figure and gives Clement a second strong bullet to fire.  At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth using somewhere.  #9 Filimbi probably will beat this field if she runs back to her close second to Tepin in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day.  She returned in an allowance race earlier this month in New York with a nice win and probably wasn’t cranked to the max, so we’re expecting to see her very best today.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Rim Nick; 8-Trump Diesel; 11-Miner’s Light

#8 Trump Diesel turned in an eye-opening 21 seconds flat breeze at the OBS April sale and then was purchased for $260,000.  A rangy, athletic colt from the first crop of Sidney’s Candy, he’s done some excellent work leading up to this debut for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs and seems plenty fit for a winning effort first crack out of the box under Pedroza.  At 8-1 on the morning line he appears to be offering loads of value in a very deep and contentious affair.  #6 Rim Nick is a hot first timer from the O’Neill barn that looks ready for a major performance in this loaded maiden juvenile extended sprint.  From the first crop of the good sprinter J. P.’s Gusto, he brought $230,000 at the Barretts May Sale after breezing a quarter mile in 21 1/5 seconds.  #11 Miner’s Light is clearly the one to beat after missing in a photo to subsequent graded stakes winner Exaggerator in his only outing during the summer Del Mar meeting in July.  He returns for Gaines with a healthy series of drills, retains Smith, and lands a comfortable outside post.  He’ll enjoy today’s extra furlong and figures to be charging late. 

NOVEMBER 28, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Roper; 8-Adair

A good nine-race program begins with a bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint.  #7 Roper already has had 10 chances and clearly isn’t one to trust, but he makes his first start since joining the D’Amato barn and his first since April, so massive improvement is possible.  A repeat of his race before last likely will be good enough to win.  The one to fear most may very well be his uncoupled stablemate, #8 Adair.  The works indicate some ability for a trainer that has excellent stats with debut runners, and at this level a little certainly will go a long way.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Alex Rossi; 4-Tulira Castle

We’ve rated this race a “C” and really don’t have any plans to get involved, as the favorites could dominate without offering any real value. #4 Tulia Castle seeks his fourth win in a row while making his first start for Spawr, but is not being raised by his new connections and clearly has issues (though his recent workouts seem good enough).  If he has one good one left he’ll most likely extend his winning streak but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not much wwe can do with him.  #1 Alex Rossi plummets in class from second level allowance company to $25,000, after finishing a reasonable third while earning a career top speed figure.  This is not a healthy pattern, however, the switch to Bejarano is encouraging.  There are mixed signal here, so it might be best not to get too involved.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Silent Movies; 4-Undeniable U; 10-Lauren’s Ladd; 12-Archaeo

This is a grass grab bag for maiden juveniles going long on the lawn.  Anything goes, so we’ll go four-deep and hope to survive and advance.  #12 Archaeo was entered tomorrow as a maiden in a stakes but most likely will start here.  A closing third beaten less than a length in a similar maiden two-turn turfer earlier this month, the son of Arch switches to Bejarano and should be dangerous from off the pace, his poor outside post notwithstanding.  #10 Lauren’s Ladd is bred to improve a ton on grass (City Zip) and flashed some speed in a trouble-filled sprint debut at Santa Anita last month.  Though he wound up seventh of eight in that race, he’s more than likely will improve today and at 12-1 on the morning line with Baze staying aboard for D’Amato he offers considerable long shot value.  #4 Undeniable U was nosed out in a similar turf maiden event at Santa Anita last month in just his second career start and most likely will continue to progress with experience.  Espinoza stays aboard for Baffert.  #2 Silent Movies is a decent colt from the Sadler barn; he was a sharp runner-up over this course and distance three weeks ago and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a pace factor once again. 

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Lymebyrd; 7-Demonslayer; 8-Etailer

This maiden state-bred sprint drew eight entrants, seven of which are making their racing debuts.  #2 Lymbyrd is bred for speed (Limehouse) and has showed enough in the a.m. for Pederson to indicate he’ll be a live item in an unclassified field.  A six furlong gate drill in 1 minute 10 and three-fifths seconds is noteworthy, even over the extremely glib Los Alamitos main track.  #7 Demonslayer has done most of his good work in the morning at Santa Anita and looks fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box for Baltas.  The presence of Bejarano in the saddle is another strong indicator of ability.  #8 Etailer is bred to win early (Square Eddie) and has showed some speed in the a.m. for O’Neill.  With main man Gutierrez aboard, this gelding should come out firing.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Coppa; 3-Riri; 6-Jeremy’s Legacy; 10-Mokat

On paper, this is a very strong race for juvenile fillies over a distance of ground on turf and it will take a good filly to win it.  We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics in what certainly looks like a contentious affair that requires a spread.  #6 Jeremy’s Legacy gained status as a future star with a nearly six length victory in her U.S. debut over this course and distance earlier this month; if the quick turnaround doesn’t have a negative effect on her she can definitely score right back.  Bejarano jumps off to ride #3 Riri, an unbeaten Speightstown filly with wins down the hill at Santa Anita and a good allowance race under these conditions here earlier this month.  She’s a genuine and versatile sort that can be effective at any distance and apparently can cope with any type of pace scenario.  #2 Coppa won her debut for D’Amato with authority while earning a strong number; she has to prove she can duplicate that type of effort around two turns and on grass but we wouldn’t put it past her.  #10 Mokat is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but she romped by more than five lengths two-turning over this course vs. maidens last month and earned a number that gives her a chance right back despite the class hike.  Of the four we’ll give Jeremy’s Legacy a very slight edge and perhaps try her in the straight pool at or around her morning line odds of 9/2.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Toledo Eddie; 8-Storm Comin Thru

#8 Storm Comin Thru seems logical after a solid runner-up try in a similar entry-level state-bred allowance race, but he’s 2-for-16 with six seconds and thirds so he may not be one to trust.  However, Bejarano stays aboard and will have him running on strongly late so we’ll put him on top by default in a somewhat lackluster race for the level.  #2 Toledo Eddie, on the other hand, always has been genuine (first or second in 17 of 36 career starts); however, he’s winless in eight starts this year and seems to have lost some of his tactical zip.  An okay second (beaten almost five lengths) in a hot race last month at Santa Anita, the Dollase-trained gelding might be perking up just a bit and is worth using in rolling exotic play.  These are the two we’ll prefer, but not with much confidence, so if you can afford go a bit deeper by all means do so.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Vigilante; 4-Chiropractor; 5-Om

#5 Om has been beaten just once in four starts (all in top company) on grass and clearly rates top billing in this Grade-1 nine furlong event.  He’ll be the controlling speed again without having to be sent, and proved he could stay nine furlongs when impressively winning the Twilight Derby-G2 at Santa Anita last month.  If you looking for a bit price to include in your exotics, consider #3 Vigilante and #4 Chiropractor.  The former shows up in the D’Amato barn after winning two nice races on turf vs. much lesser foes in the East; he looks to be a high potential type and can really turn it on late.  The latter has rising numbers for Proctor, makes a major switch to Nakatani, will be facing his own age group today, and will be running on strongly in the final furlong.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Dortmund; 7-Imperative

As of this writing #3 Dortmund remains in the field, and reports indicate he's a likely starter and a certain short-priced favorite.  #7 Imperative makes his third start since joining the Baltas barn and we’re expecting improvement from son of Bernardini.  Fourth in the highly-rated Awesome Again S.-G1 in his most recent start and before that a respectable fifth in the Pacific Classic-G1, the late-running gelding seems like a logical exacta partner with Dortmund.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Hunt; 7-What a View; 10-Roy H

#6 Hunt was a tad disappointing when a no-excuse fourth in the Twilight Derby-G2 but returns to the first-level conditioned allowance ranks today and should enjoy this considerably easier task.  Smith stays aboard for D’Amato and will have this Irish-bred rolling when it matters in the final furlong.  #7 What a View likely will inherit a stalker’s trip today and may run a bit better with a target to follow.  After making the running in a similar spot earlier this month, he was tagged right on the line in a race in which Desormeaux appeared to go to sleep in the final 70 yards.  There will be no repeat of such tactics today with the switch to Quinonez.  #10 Roy H stretches out for the first time and with his kind of zip he surely will be the controlling speed.  The son of More Than Ready gets in light, has the pedigree to handle a mile and hails from a barn that has solid sprint-to-route stats.  He’s well worth including somewhere at 12-1 on the morning line.

NOVEMBER 27, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Family Code; 5-Turn Your Eyes

#5 Turn Your Eyes continued his improving pattern with a blowout maiden state-bred romp last month and if the Kafwain colt can produce another forward move he can score right back on the raise.  The pace situation looks fairly comfortable and another positive is the huge break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez.  #1 Family Code is the one to fear most, though the rail post does him no favors.  Third in a state-bred stakes at seven furlongs last month, he faces a softer group today while shortening up in trip and could capture the role as the controlling speed.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with extra tickets using Turn Your Eyes.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Too Fast to Pass; 8-Mr. Sexy; 10-Back to Bako

This grass grab bag has several contenders and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three deep but feel free to include anybody that catches your eye.  #10 Back to Bako is a first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer (27% with this angle) so he’s very likely to improve; he also switches to good bug boy Lopez and has the route-to-sprint maneuver that can produce nice prices.  Effective at any distance and with back numbers that are good enough to beat this field, the son of Aragon is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.  #4 Too Fast to Pass has won three of his last four starts while competing in strong company up north and his form on turf is solid and consistent.  Freshened since early October and working extremely well since for high percentage trainer Wong, this veteran gelding has a good stalking style and should draft into an ideal spot in the second flight, waiting to pounce just behind the speed types.  #8 Mr. Sexy will insure a hot pace and if he can edge clear early he may get brave late.  His career best race came over this course and distance and he really won’t have to improve all that much to regain that type of form. 

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Single: 9-Bolt Up

This lackluster bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares doesn’t have much in it; with the late scratching of logical contender #5 Mackenzies Moment, we’ll reluctantly zero in on #9 Bolt Up.  The Hofmans-trained filly lands the cozy outside post, has competitive figures, and should move forward in her second off a layoff.  We really don’t want to get too involved in, so you can single Bolt Up, spread the race, or simply pass.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 9-Tiz a Kiss; 11-Dreamologist

#9 Tiz a Kiss is winless this year and certainly is overdue.  The Baltas-trained mare has no tactical speed and needs help up front, and with the fractions expected to be legit with the presence of #11 Dreamologist in the field we’re anticipating Bejarano will have her along in time.  Dreamologist set suicidal splits in the Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita and understandably wilted late; if she can slow down just a bit today she’ll take this easier field a very long way.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – the best of the closers and the best of speed – while preferring Tiz a Kiss slightly on top.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Scatchmeifyoucan; 7-Flexible Ethics

We’ll use two in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares but we’ve rated the race a “C’ so we’re not planning on getting too involved.  #7 Flexible Ethics should appreciate the shortened trip; the Mulhall-trained filly is drawn outside the other main speed and figures to get a good pace stalking trip.  #3 Scatchmeifyoucan has only one way to go – on the front end – and always is vulnerable in the final furlong, but if she can clear without pressure she could stick around for a long time in a field that doesn’t have any reliable closers.  Rolling exotic players should go as deep as they can afford to.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Illuminant; 6-My Senses; 7-Miss Boom Boom

This looks like a pretty good field for the level with several possibilities.  #4 Illuminant is stretching out again and clearly is the controlling speed; the daughter of Quality Road has established herself as a turf specialist and ran very well over this course when second in a good maiden special weight miler during the summer meeting.  Most recently she was a clever winner down the hill at Santa Anita with a career top figure and with another forward move today will be tough to catch once again.  #6 My Senses arrives fit and ready from Keeneland for Motion and should draft into a perfect pace-stalking position.  She’s a progressive sort with plenty of room for further improvement.  #7 Miss Boom Boom is a deep closer hoping for a fast pace.  She exits a graded stakes in which she earned a career-top equaling figure, and ran very well when runner-up over this course and distance at this level in her race before last.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez and sports a healthy work tab since raced.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference going to Illuminant.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Old Hollywood; 4-Candy Boss; 5-She’s a Warrior

#5 She’s a Warrior tipped her hand in her debut with excellent runner-up effort last month at Santa Anita and if she can build on that today she should be set to graduate in what appears to be a stronger-than-par maiden special weight extended sprint for juvenile fillies.  She was more than four clear of the rest in that race and has trained well since, so a forward move is likely.  #3 Old Hollywood is a first-timer with excellent drills for Hollendorfer (superior stats with debut runners) and looks cranked up for a huge effort.  With Bejarano taking the mount she’s sure to get plenty of support.  #4 Candy Boss is another newcomer worthy of inclusion.  Sadler is another that excels with first-time starters and this daughter of Candy Ride has done everything right in the morning after bringing $250,000 last spring in the OBS 2-year-old in training sale (where she breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat).  We’ll prefer She’s a Warrior on top due to having a prior outing but all three should be used in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Bal a Bali; 4-Seek Again; 5-Avanzare

#3 Bal a Bali regained his winning form with an excellent performance in a strong allowance race over this course last month and looks more than capable of coming right back in this contentious middle distance turf Grade 2 stakes.  He continues to look exceptional in the morning for Mandella and Bejarano rides him back.  #5 Avanzare beat Bal a Bali on the square in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 in August but could do no better than third when favored in the City of Hope Mile-G2 at Santa Anita in September.  Freshened and looking sharp as tack in the morning in recent weeks, the Proctor-trained gelding should return to top form today and is a “must use” in the exotics.  #4 Seek Again has strung together four straight triple-digit Beyer figures, though he remains winless in 2015 while racing primarily in Grade 1 Company.  His best makes him a contender and should at least land him in the frame.  Let’s prefer Bal a Bali on top while using all three in rolling exotic play.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Passionate Emotion; 8-Riddle Me; 10-Blazeinblairsden

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies make the nightcap a fairly difficult handicapping affair, though if she can avoid trouble from the rail #1 Passionate Emotion seems like a logical top pick.  She’ll appreciate today’s extra half-furlong after running out of room when second as the choice against a similar group a couple of weeks ago.  #8 Riddle Me is an intriguing first-time starter for the Hess-Desormeaux team; she’s trained well enough to be a strong threat against this level of competition and this barn has excellent recent stats with first-time starters.  #10 Blazeinblairsden is another sneaky first-timer that needs to be included; she’s from the Miyadi barn (flat-bet profit with debut runners) and the works aren’t bad.  At the very least she seems better than her 20-1 morning line indicates.

NOVEMBER 26, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

Follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (11:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2- Heed to Speed; 5- Sarno’s B F F

The opener is a weak maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies; we’ll use two in our rolling exotics but with a low degree of confidence.  #2 Heed to Speed is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (excellent stats with this angle) and seems likely to improve off her so-so debut sprinting last month at Santa Anita. She’s bred to get the trip and figures to be on or near the lead throughout.  #5 Sarno’s B F F, a so-so fourth in her debut for O’Neill, is another that can be expected to produce a forward move and she did flash enough early speed sprinting to expect that she’ll be a pace factor stretching out against this group.  We’ve rated this race a “C” so tread lightly.

SECOND RACE (11:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Sugar Buzz; 4-Meshegas

#3 Sugar Buzz is solid in the speed figure department and seems likely to run his race, which might be good enough against this starter optional claiming band of juveniles over a mile on the main track.  The son of Include should draft into an ideal pace-stalking spot and have every chance with his one-paced style.  #4 Mishegas, third in the same race that Sugar Buzz just finished second in, is another son of Include that just grinds it out and looks to be the one to fear most.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but this is another uninspiring race that should be treated cautiously.

THIRD RACE (12:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Gift of a Star; 6-Untouchable U; 12-Margaret Reay

The Pick-6 begins with a grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares.  We’ll try to get by using just three.  #6 Untouchable U has improving numbers for Truman and certainly is bred to run long on the lawn, being by Red Giant from a mare by Point Giver.  Her two sprints were pretty good so we should see her best stuff today. #2 Gift of a Star may have a bit more room to improve than the others; the McAnally-trained five-year-old finished willingly to be second in a similar event earlier this month and if she can produce another forward move today she’ll be right there.  #12 Margaret Reay is stuck way outside and already has had eight chances, so she may be a hard one to trust.  However, the Proctor-trained filly exits a hot race and ran very well over this course in a runner-up try vs. straight maidens during the summer meeting, so we’ll toss her in as well.

FOURTH RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Smooth Talker; 3-Seek Safe Harbor

This looks like a treacherous affair for modest claiming fillies and mares; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  #2 Smooth Talker exits a much tougher starter’s allowance race and returns to her winning level; the O’Neill-trained mare has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and a repeat of her race before last probably will be good enough.  She’s also reunited with Van Dyke, who seems to get the most run out of her.  #3 Seek Safe Harbor is worth tossing in at a price despite her low percentage connections; she was a winner vs. similar two runs back at Santa Anita and also won a race over this main track during the summer season.  First or second in seven of 16 career starts, she’s probably a bit better than her 10-1 morning line. 

FIFTH RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Tiz a Classy Lass; 3-Stole a Kiss; 6-Diamond Cut

This highly-competitive state-bred first-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares is yet another race that may require a bit of a spread.  #2 Tiz a Classy Lass was visually quite impressive winning a starter’s allowance event over this course and distance earlier this month and if she can repeat that effort today she’ll be hard to beat.  She did get pace to run at in that race but winning from the 10-hole is never an easy task and she’s drawn much better today, so we’re expecting another huge run.  #3 Stole a Kiss finished a close fifth without the clearest of runs against a similar group last month and today gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Lopez.  The Puype-trained filly should be heard from late.  #6 Diamond Cut has been away since July but she’s trained like she’s fit and ready for Sadler and retains Espinoza, who won on her two races back.  The daughter of Unusual Heat is a fit on numbers and as a 3-year-old may have a bit higher ceiling than some of the others.

SIXTH RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Patriotic Diamond

#9 Patriotic Diamond is listed at 7/5 on the morning line and most likely will be the shortest price in the pick-6 sequence.  Drawn comfortably outside after a better-than-looked third place performance in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies last month, the daughter of Hat Trick adds blinkers today, retains Bejarano, and beats these with a repeat of her smart victory in the Generous Portion two races back.  Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-The Pizza Man; 9-Texas Ryano; 14-Big John B

#6 The Pizza Man finished third in this race last year, hitting the front in mid-stretch but then getting worn down close home; today Smith takes over and will give this son of English Channel the patient ride he needs.  The veteran gelding’s fifth place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Turf wasn’t too bad over a course that was much softer than its listed “good” designation.  He can bounce back today.  #14 Big John B floundered in the going and was never a factor in the B.C. Turf; he’s a perfect three-for-three over the Del Mar lawn so we’re expecting to see a return to top form by the D’Amato-trained gelding.  The 14-hole doesn’t do him any favors with that relatively quick run into the far turn, so Bejarano probably will just yank him back and then try to save as much ground as he can early on.  #9 Texas Ryano found a mile much too sharp and was a non-threatening fifth in a hot allowance race here last month but this is a much better distance for the Gaines-trained son of Curlin and at 10-1 on the morning line he can at least hit the board.

EIGHTH RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-And Then Some; 7-Discreetlyhumorme; 11-Nusret; 12-Deputy Dane

This maiden claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles has several possibilities and necessitates a spread strategy; we’ll use four but feel free to go deeper if you can afford to.  #5 And Then Some shows up for a tag for the first time, returns to dirt, shortens to a sprint, switches to Talamo, and puts blinkers on.  He earned a number two races back that puts him right there, so we’ll give him top billing in a largely unclassified field.  #7 Discreetlyhumorme flashed pretty good early speed before being knocked off stride and falling after the opening quarter of a mile in his debut vs. straight maidens at Los Alamitos in September.  He returns in a realistic spot for Glatt and Baze, and the recent works look fairly promising.  You have to use him at 12-1 on the morning line.  #11 Nusret has the blinkers off angle we like so much and may be a bit better than shown.  He’s not fast on numbers but does have some early zip and could stick around for a while.  #12 Deputy Dane represents stranger danger from San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato; the work tab looks reasonable so he’s worth including somewhere.