NOVEMBER 13, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Moonlight Meeting; 5-Apollo Ten; 6-Athens

The opener is a fairly competitive $16,000 sprint that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll give #6 Athens a very slight edge on top, though this big class drop from a low percentage outfit is a major concern.  The son of Giant’s Causeway has run well over this main track in the past, has a decided edge in the speed figure department, and switches to Bejarano, all positive factors.  At this level he should find his heart, assuming he’s physically okay.  #5 Apollo Ten is dropping off a sharp $20,000 claiming win and now is in the Pender barn, so he’s a bit shaky as well.  If he’s feeling good, he’ll be a late threat.  #4 Moonlight Meeting crushed a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 field last month at Santa Anita; if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a threat right back.  We’ll try to get by using just these three but if you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

SECOND RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Juansagain; 5-Pippappy

#1 Juansagain has rising speed figures for Baltas, won over this track during the summer meeting, and was almost three clear of the rest when second in a similar spot last month at Santa Anita.  If he can negotiate a decent trip from the rail, the lightly-raced gelding will be hard to contain and, in fact, will offer decent value if he leaves at or near his 5/2 morning line odds.  #5 Pippappy broke his maiden in a visually pleasing manner over this track two weeks ago and with another forward may be the one to fear most.  Perez stays aboard for Mulhall.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference going to Juansagain.

THIRD RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 6-Cass in Stone; 7-Blue Anchor

#6 Cass in Stone looked real good breaking his maiden in a $32,000 claimer at Santa Anita while earning by far a career top speed figure.  He returns protected for O’Neill in this starter’s allowance event, retains Bejarano, and seems well-placed for a repeat score.  If you can get 5/2 in the straight pool, take it.  #7 Blue Anchor was beaten at 6/5 when a fading third at Santa Anita while failing to repeat the quality of his Los Alamitos maiden win.  He ran pretty well over this track during the summer meeting and should have every chance to bounce back with a pace-pressing trip.  We’ll use him on a back-up ticket while strongly preferring Cass in Stone on top.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Sizzlin’ Joe; 5-Infinite Magic; 8-You Know I Know

#2 Sizzlin’ Joe has the blinkers-off angle we like so much while returning to his proper class level; the Carava-trained gelding has won over this turf course in the past, lands a good inside post, and switches to Bejarano, so there should be no excuses today.  The son of Unusual Heat consistently earns speed figures that are better than par and should draft into an ideal, second flight, ground-saving spot.  #5 Infinite Magic is another dropping back to his claim level and seems likely to return to good form after a poor effort over a dirt track that he clearly didn’t handle.  The Mullins-trained gelding has plenty of back class to make him a threat, switches to Baze, and may be the most dangerous of the closing types.  #8 You Know I Know, freshened since late September, drops to his lowest level ever and this past-classer is long overdue for a win.  Desormeaux will have him doing his best work in the final furlong.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two on top using Sizzlin’ Joe.

FIFTH RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-One Bye Two; 8-Of Course It Is

#8 Of Course It Is, first off a $30,000 claim by Hollendorfer (superb stats with this angle), returns at that same level while removing blinkers and switching to good bug boy Lopez.  His numbers are rising and we’re expecting another forward move in a below par field of maiden claiming juvenile fillies.  #3 One Bye Two is the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can.  A repeat of her race before last might be good enough.  Of Course It Is gets the edge on top but both should be used in rolling exotic play.

SIXTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Whim

#2 Whim is a Bay Area shipper with some ability and catches a below par field of older maiden fillies and mares in this five furlong turf dash.  She’s a first-time Lasix user returning to a sprint trip, and we’re expecting the Mandella-trained daughter of More Than Ready to be along in time.  At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (3:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-Sweetrayofsunshine; 8-Cadet Roni

#5 Sweetrayofsunshine returns to her favorite surface (dirt) and is well-placed to return to winning form.  The Spawr-trained mare is reunited with Talamo, who has won with her in the past, and the veteran daughter of Benchmark continues to look sharp in a.m. drills since raced.  With a prior win over the Del Mar main track, she’s seems primed for a major effort.  #8 Cadet Roni was extra sharp in a recent sprint win at Santa Anita but is unproven around two turns (in her only prior route try, she finished last).  The Glatt-trained filly clearly is the controlling speed and retains Bejarano; since she does have a bit of a chance to take this field gate to wire we’ll have a ticket or two with her in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 4-Flexible Ethics; 5-Ms. K J; 7-My Silver Cat

#7 My Silver Cat looked decent graduating from a bottom-rung maiden claiming field last month at Santa Anita and seem properly spotted right back in this nw-2 $16,000 sprint for fillies and mares.  She’s a fit on numbers and likely has another forward move or two in her, so we’ll put her on top in a spread race.  #5 Ms. K J is a sneaky Bay Area invader dropping to her lowest level ever.  She’s burned money of late and probably isn’t one to trust, but she’s a fit on figures and gets a break in the weights, so we’ll toss her in.  #4 Flexible Ethics has good early speed and if she can shake loose early she might stick around awhile.  These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play while pressing a bit on top with My Silver Cat.