NOVEMBER 7, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 4-Esposito

#4 Esposito finished a solid third in a fast, highly-rated race in his recent debut at Santa Anita and has trained well since, so a forward move can be expected.  He’s 5/2 on the morning line but we’re anticipating he’ll go considerably lower than that.  In what appears to be a below par field for the level, let’s make him a rolling exotic single.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Zanbo; 4-With a Twist; 8-Light Striker

#3 Zanbo drops to $32,000 and the last two times she ran at this level she won.  The veteran mare has excellent form over this turf course, retains Bejarano, and should settle into a good ground-saving, second-flight position, so we’ll put her slightly on top in a race that demands a spread.  #4 With a Twist is a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar turf course and is another dropping a notch while still remaining above her claim level.  The D’Amato-trained mare packs a strong late punch and Desormeaux knows her well.  #8 Light Striker won a nice starter’s allowance race on the main track recently but shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the switch to grass.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Kennedy and seems a little better than her 8-1 morning line gives her credit for.  She’s probably worth tossing in somewhere.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Mike’s Benchmark; 8-H R Express

This modest maiden claiming state-bred sprint has little in it among the known element, so let’s try a fresh face.  #8 H R Express has done plenty of good work in the a.m. for Puype and seems fit and cranked up for a big effort first crack out of the box.  A sharp 46 2/5 seconds gate work Oct. 10 catches the eye.  #6 Mike’s Benchmark, a reasonable runner-up in his debut after a slow start, has plenty of room for improvement and is clearly the best of the known element.  If he leaves with his field today he could be gone.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Somethings Unusual; 4-What a View

#4 What a View looked real good winning a first-level state-bred allowance race at Santa Anita last month and with another forward move seems quite capable of beating open company as well.  Additionally, he was impressive winning over this course during the summer meeting, retains Desormeaux, and can win on the front end or from a stalking position.  We’ll try him in the straight pool if he’s close to his 5/2 morning line odds.  #4 Somethings Unusual is worth including as at least a back-up in rolling exotic play.  He’s not keen on winning – just 2-for-24 lifetime – but he’s been knocking on the door and his recent numbers are strong.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Antinanco; 4-The Gold Monkey

We’ll go two-deep in this wide-open restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming miler with #1 Antinanco getting a slight edge on top.  The Pender-trained gelding returns to his claim level, lands the good rail, switches to Bejarano and has run well over this track in the past.  He should be on or near the lead throughout.  #4 The Gold Monkey looks the best of the closing types and his speed figures are steadily rising for Headley.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Havana Belle; 5-Glory; 6-Journey On; 8-Last Kiss

This highly-competitive second-level allowance affair on turf has several logical contenders; we’ll go four deep while preferring #8 Last Kiss on top.  The Drysdale-trained filly finished an excellent second in her U.S. debut last month at Santa Anita in what was a fast, highly-rated event, and any kind of forward move today will make her hard to deny.  #5 Glory looked sharp winning down the hill last month against a lesser field in what was her first start on turf; today’s added distance won’t be an issue and the daughter of Tapit looks to be a very good grass filly in the making.  #2 Havana Belle has rising numbers for D’Amato and was decent third in a listed stakes over this course during the summer meeting; she’s trained well since and has plenty of room for improvement.  She’s also reunited with Bejarano, who won on her two races back.  #6 Journey On has the blinkers-off angle that must be considered strongly and she’s another with proven winning form over this course.  She’s 8-1 on the morning line and probably is a bit better than that.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 5-All Run; 6-Kafister; 8-Melatonin

#5 All Run has been highly-impressive winning his last pair and in his present form seems capable of extending his streak to three.  He was an easy winner over this track and distance two runs back and earned a career top figure when demolishing a first-level field at Santa Anita in late September.  #6 Kafister was beaten on the square at even money last month at Santa Anita but he returns to Del Mar, where he earned a career top number in a sharp score two races back.  The Bernstein-trained gelding should rebound with his best effort today.  #8 Melatonin is another with a prior win at Del Mar and is the most dangerous of the closing types.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with All Run on top.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Cast in Silver; 5-Beat of the Drum; 6-Energia Fribby

#5 Beat of the Drum couldn’t have been more impressive than she was beating a softer field in gate-to-wire style last month at Santa Anita and if she’s handed the front end again today she’s likely to come right back on the raise and win again.  It all depends up how much pressure she gets with #7 Chaulk O Lattey.  If the pace turns up contested, #4 Cast in Silver and #6 Energia Fribby will be tough to contain late.  The former is solid in the speed figure department and Garcia will give her the patient ride she needs, while the latter, a very promising third in the Swingtime Stakes in her U.S. debut last month, has every right to produce a forward move for Drysdale. 

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 9-Blue Copper; 12-Unbridled Rocket

This isn’t much of a race for maiden claiming juveniles so we’ll try to get by using the best of the newcomers with the best of the known element.  #12 Unbridled Rocket has finished in the money in his last four starts and is overdue for a win; he earned a career top speed figure when missing by a head last time out and not much better will be needed today.  #9 Blue Copper is a first-timer from the Hess barn with a good enough series of workouts to warrant a big look against this group.