NOVEMBER 15, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Desert Madam; 4-Wild Caroline; 6-Shared Image

The opener is a difficult starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares that requires a bit of a spread.  #6 Shared Image has been extremely popular at the claim box lately; she was re-claimed by Machowsky (always a good sign) and puts on blinkers for the first time.  She’s won over the Del Mar main track in the past, has numbers that fit, and should enjoy an ideal pace-pressing trip.  #4 Wild Caroline tossed in a clunker when overmatched in a first-level allowance race over a distance of ground; she’s back sprinting today and is realistically spotted vs. starter’s foes, so the Periban-trained filly seems capable of returning to good form.  She’s another with a prior win at Del Mar and at 8-1 on the morning line offers a bit of value for price players.  #3 Desert Madam, first or second in seven of 15 career starts, is fresh from a nice state-bred allowance score at Santa Anita; she’s tackling a bit stronger field today but with another forward move could pose a threat from off the pace.  She’s another 8-1 morning line shot worth considering.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Shared Image on top.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Almost Reality; 4-Dressed to a T

#4 Dressed to a T finished heads-apart with #1 Almost Reality in a common race over this course and distance in early September and both return against similar straight maiden state-bed competition.  Dressed to a T was making her debut in that race and has a sharp, steady work tab since, so we’ll assume she has a higher ceiling and put her on top for a barn that has superior stats in a small sample with second-time starters.  ‘Reality opened up a needless long lead in that race and paid for it late; today she’ll race without blinkers and likely will relax better for Drysdale.  With the switch to Baze and from a favorable inside post, the Desert Code filly is a “must use” in the exotics.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 2-Carlot Cowboy

#2 Carlot Cowboy is winless in five starts at Del Mar but otherwise has plenty in his favor and looks solid in this bottom-rung middle distance claimer.  The Spawr-trained gelding should draft into an ideal, ground-saving, second flight spot and then have every chance to produce a winning late kick.  Runner-up in his last two starts with good numbers for the level, the son of Silver Train should be along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.  His morning line of 5/2 seems fair enough.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Police Escort; 7-Urlacher

#7 Urlacher boasts rising speed figures with each outing and with another forward move today will be difficult to beat.  Second in a hot race while more than eight lengths clear of the rest, the Harty-trained colt should be prominent throughout and have every chance to earn his diploma.  #5 Police Escort is worth considering in rolling exotic play as well.  A steady, one-paced fourth in his sprint debut, the son of Distorted Humor should move forward considerably and also can be expected to enjoy the added distance.  The Baffert-trained colt continues to impress in the morning and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him inherit the role as the controlling speed.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 8-Anthonysgotgame; 10-Where’s Bubba

#8 Anthonysgotgame ran a winning race in his debut but had to settle for second after costing himself his best chance with a slow start.  Claimed out of that race for $20,000 by O’Neill, he returns at the same level while lengthening out to seven furlongs, and if he can leave with his field today he’ll be hard to handle.  Gonzalez stays aboard.  #10 Where’s Bubba has a look off his good runner-up try two races back; he was disappointing last time out in a fairly strong race for the level but should go better against this group.  He’s worth using as a saver; however, we’ll strongly prefer Anthonysgotgame on top.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Pay the Fine; 4-Oil

#2 Pay the Fine is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter and seems primed for another major effort.  The son of Square Eddie showed grit when winning down the hill last month and can be expected to fire a similar shot today.  He has a good stalking style and is a 3-year-old with room for further improvement.  #4 Oil won over this course and distance during the summer meeting and returns to turf today for just the second time in his career.  He’s also re-united with Talamo, who won on him two races back, and the son of Tribal Rule should help establish a fairly torrid pace.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets with Pay the Fine on top.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Ceeme Run Wild; 8-Not Now Carolyn

#5 Ceeme Run Wild didn’t break well from the rail and fell back, then moved within range and kept on well to be third in a promising debut over this track during the summer meeting.  She returns for Hollendorfer against a similar maiden special weight field and the daughter of Tiznow looks logical, assuming she breaks cleanly today.  #8 Not Now Carolyn is fast-working first-timer by Tapit from the terrific sprinting mare Maryfield.  The connections don’t inspire confidence but from an outside post under Baze the daughter of Tapit should have every chance at first asking.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with a very slight preference on top to Ceeme Run Wild.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Lucky Folie; 7-Pretty N Cool

#7 Pretty N Cool has been beaten just once – by the brilliant Songbird in the Dell Mar Debutante-G1 – and deserves top billing in this strong seven furlong listed stakes for juvenile fillies.  Drawn perfectly outside, the Baffert-trained daughter of Scat Daddy can bust to the front or settle into a stalker’s role; she’s won doing both and Garcia can select what trip fits best.  #3 Lucky Folie was very impressive breaking her maiden at first asking on this main track in September; she didn’t run badly at all when crossing the wire second going a mile on turf in the subsequent Surfer Girl Stakes behind Stays in Vegas.  She’s back sprinting and back on the main track today for Mandella and if she can duplicate the number she earned in her maiden win she could give ‘Cool plenty to worry about.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Durango Flier; 5-Over Par; 8-Smoky’s Legacy

This fairly wide open grass affair would appear to require a spread; we’ll try to get by using the three listed above.  #5 Over Par stretches out again after being out of his element sprinting down the hill in a state-bred stakes; the O’Neill-trained colt shows excellent form over this turf course and ran well when second vs. similar two runs back.  Gutierrez will have him running on strongly late.  #8 Smoky’s Legacy may be most effective as a late-running sprinter but did run well in his only route try (at Los Alamitos) late last year.  If he can duplicate his sprint form under these conditions the Slew City Slew gelding will be right there.  #2 Durango Flier is just one-for-15 lifetime but he switches to Bejarano and was a strong second over this course vs. similar entry-level level allowance foes two runs back, so we’ll toss him in as well.