NOVEMBER 12, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Picasso’s Mandolin; 4-Seattle Serenade

#4 Seattle Serenade has done plenty of good work in the a.m. and appears fit and ready for a big effort first crack out of the box.  A $1 million yearling by Smart Strike, the Hollendorfer-trained colt is 9/5 on the morning line and might go lower.  #3 Picasso’s Mandolin flashed ability in his debut when a closing second while earning a legitimate speed figure last month at Santa Anita; he gets an extra half-furlong to work with today and should be running on late again.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with the high potential Seattle Serenade on top.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-No Tricks for Jack; 6-Tell Her Yes

#6 Tell Her Us is a consistent filly at or around this bottom-rung $8,000 level and after winning in good style in Fresno last month she should be set for a similar effort today for a high percentage outfit.  #5 No Tricks for Jack won at this level in convincing style at Santa Anita about a month ago; she’s now 16 for 51 lifetime and can be expected to bring her best stuff again with three nice drills since her most recent score.  We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play while giving Tell Her Us – she’ll be the better price – a very slight edge on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 7-Sweet Invention; 8-Edgy Girl

#7 Sweet Invention has looked pretty good in the a.m. for Hendricks and seems plenty fit for a good effort in her racing debut.  The known element isn’t all that inspiring, so a fresh face can win it and this daughter of Twirling Candy seems like a logical contender.  #8 Edgy Girl, another newcomer with credentials, also should be included in rolling exotic play.  By the hot young freshman sire Uncle Mo, the D’Amato-trained filly has shown enough in the morning to indicate a good amount of ability and seems properly spotted in this high-priced maiden claimer.  Go-to rider Baze takes the call and at 6-1 on the morning line she may offer excellent value in the straight pool.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Courageous Dave

#5 Courageous Dave is a route-to-sprint class dropper with back figures that are more than good enough to win at this level.  The O’Neill-trained colt is listed at 9/5 on the morning line and likely will go lower in a soft field as a logical rolling exotic single.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-And Then Some; 8-Gio Mio

#8 Gio Mio showed promise when missing by a neck with a huge late kick in his debut, and then was disappointing when arguably overmatched in a pair of state-bred stakes.  He’s back with maidens today and also is stretching out and trying turf for the first time (bred for it).  He’s also reunited with Espinoza, who rode him in his debut, so we’re expecting to the son of Gio Ponti to snap back with a major effort today.  #5 And Then Some, fourth in a pair of sprints, stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to enjoy the added ground plus the switch to grass.  With numbers that are rising, the son of Southern Image could easily produce another forward move today and be the one to fear most.  We’ll use both equally in our rolling exotics.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Uptown Twirl; 2-Miss Big Stuff; 3-One Last Shot

This is a very competitive first-level allowance sprint for juvenile fillies with the three listed above all stakes-quality performers.  #1 Uptown Twirl, beaten a half-length in the Anoakia Stakes last month at Santa Anita, continues to impress in the morning for Sadler and will be a strong pace factor throughout, assuming she leaves cleanly from the rail.  #2 Miss Big Stuff graduated at first asking over this main track during the summer season and then was a disappointing fourth in the Anoakia; she’s capable of bouncing back for Miller and will insure a hot pace.  #3 One Last Shot won her debut over this track and distance in August and then was tried in a pair of two-turn turf events; she’s back where she belong today and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position just off the two other main contenders.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets with One Last Shot on top.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-El Nino Terrible; 5-Hay Dude

#5 Hay Dude returns for D’Amato for his first start since March and though primarily a miler throughout his career the veteran gelding could be most effective as a late-running turf sprinter.  A fast-finishing second when sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita in a stakes last January, he should fire a big shot fresh for a barn that excels with layoff runners.  Let’s hope five furlongs isn’t too sharp for him.  #1 El Nino Terrible, away since April and making his first start as a gelding for new trainer O’Neill, looks like a live item from the rail under Bejarano.  He’s another that can be effective sprinting and has been blazing away in the morning at Los Alamitos in recent weeks to appear cranked up and ready to go.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Juju’s Mojo; 2-Black Cover; 6-Tiz Pleasant

The finale is a modest maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for juvenile fillies with nothing to trust; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  #1 Juju’s Mojo finished a distant second in her debut and has a right to improve off that effort for barn that sports solid stats with this angle; additionally, she has looked decent in the morning since that race and gets a break in the weights with the switch to Kennedy.  If she can avoid trouble from the rail she’ll be a legitimate contender at 5-1 on the morning line.  #2 Back Cover was virtually eased in her debut in straight maiden company at Los Alamitos but she’s much better than that and Graham stays aboard for Puype.  She adds blinkers today, continues to show ability in the morning and deserves another chance.  #6 Tiz Pleasant, second in her last three, retains Bejarano and figures for at least a piece of it again.