NOVEMBER 21, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Carlsbad Mountain; 6-The Mad Hungarian

The opener has just six runners of which there are two main contenders, and neither one can be considered trustworthy.  #1 Carlsbad Mountain won a bottom-runger at Santa Anita in good style and if he can turn in two alike he can be tough right back on the double jump.  He’s the logical top choice, but #6 The Mad Hungarian has credentials as well, though his record over this main track (unplaced in five career starts) is hard to ignore.  This might be a race that is best left alone; rolling exotic plays should use as many as they can afford to.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Heat; 9-At Ease

#9 At Ease was used hard on a quick pace and paid for it late when fourth as the 6/5 choice in a similar maiden state-bred turf miler over this course earlier this month.  He’s drawn outside today and the switch in post positions should dictate a change in strategy that calls for patient handling.  Given the proper type of trip, he should be able to produce the last run.  #4 Heat is the one to fear most; the Abrams-trained gelding has hit the board in each of his last three starts and his numbers are gradually rising.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with At Ease on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Single: 8-Dirt in Your Face

#8 Dirt in Your Face looks like a single by default in this weak bottom-rung maiden claimer.  However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the Yakteen-trained colt hardly offers good value, especially since he’s never been known to find extra under pressure when it counts in the final furlong.  But if not him, then who?  This is a good race to simply sit out, or spread if you’re playing rolling exotics.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Chips All In; 7-Boozer

#7 Boozer, freshened since March, returns for Glatt with a series of sharp drills that should have him fit and ready for a big run off the bench.  He loves this turf course (two wins in three starts), is tough at any distance, and is more than good enough to beat a field like this with anything close to his best effort.  #1 Chips All In is a tough-as-nails veteran fresh from a game score over this course and distance earlier this month.  He’s worth including as a saver, but the main push here is Boozer.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Rattataptap

#2 Rattataptap is tough on any surface and based purely on speed figures towers over this second-level allowance field.  Drawn comfortably inside and with the kind of tactical speed that should place her in a good second flight, stalking spot, the daughter of Tapit exits a series of very tough races and finds a group she should be able to handle.  There’s value here at her morning line odds of 5/2 if you can get it.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Whispering Softly; 7-That’s a Lady; 9-Sassy Ashley

Kentucky invader #6 Whispering Softly shows up looking for some of that lucrative ship-and-win money and the Motion-trained filly seems well-placed after tipping her hand with an excellent runner-up effort in a maiden special weight affair at Churchill Downs over a distance of ground on turf earlier this month.  The daughter of Arch should improve with experience and arrives fit and ready to win.  #7 That’s a Lady, a fair fourth in her debut last month over this course and distance, is another that likely will step forward with a race under her belt.  The daughter of City Zip switches to Espinoza and hails from a barn (Sadler) that excels with second-time starting maidens.  #9 Sassy Ashley, fourth of 10 in her debut as the favorite during the summer meeting, likely is better than that race shows and is another that falls into the “must use” category.  In a tough race that requires a spread, we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Whispering Softly on top.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Stealth Drone; 4-Soul Flyer; 7-Wheatfield

#7 Wheatfield looked good graduating over this main track earlier this month while earning a vastly improved speed figure, and with another forward move today the daughter of Lone Star Special seems quite capable of repeating on the raise.  She’s a not a real quick type so this extended sprint trip helps her chances.  #3 Stealth Drone has rising speed figures and good current form and should be in the thick of things again, especially with the switch to Bejarano.  The daughter of Smoke Glacken has excellent form over this main track and should be on or near the lead throughout.  #4 Soul Flyer seeks her third straight win and earned her diploma over this main track two runs back during the summer meeting.  She’s lacking in the speed figure department but the lightly-raced daughter of Bertrando certainly has a right to move forward with experience.  In a difficult race, we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets on top with Wheatfield.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Trophee; 6-Star Act; 9-Elektrum; 10-Personal Diary

This mini-marathon turf stakes for older fillies and mares is a real grass grab bag requiring a considerable spread in rolling exotic play.  We’re going four deep and even that might not be enough.  #6 Star Act won at this distance over this turf course during the summer season and that makes her the one to beat today.  She switches to Bejarano, exits the best race, and seems to be training quite well for Sherman at Los Alamitos.  We’ll put her slightly on top.  #9 Elektrum finished off the board at even money in a disappointing effort over this course in the Goldikova Stakes; she’s certainly capable of better but is unproven at this distance.  Toss her in.  #10 Personal Diary is another with a prior win over this turf course and is back with Nakatani.  She’ll be dangerous from off the pace.  #5 Trophee is a Clement shipper and on that angle alone deserves a look.  Treve’s half-sister won at 11-furlongs against softer foes and is relatively lightly raced with room to move forward.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Caminetto; 4-Newfound Gold

This race looks treacherous and nothing would surprise us.  The two listed above both are more than capable of winning but have question marks.  #4 Newfound Gold is as genuine and consistent as they come, having finished first or second in 31 of 48 career starts while winning six of his last seven.  However, he was a voided claim two races back and today is a first-off-the-claim for a low percentage outfit (though Sierra does have an excellent record with this angle in a small sample).  #3 Caminetto shows up in a claimer for the first time after a series of dull races.  Perhaps the softer company will wake him up, but he’s a hard one to trust.  Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to, or simply pass.