NOVEMBER 26, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (11:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2- Heed to Speed; 5- Sarno’s B F F

The opener is a weak maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies; we’ll use two in our rolling exotics but with a low degree of confidence.  #2 Heed to Speed is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (excellent stats with this angle) and seems likely to improve off her so-so debut sprinting last month at Santa Anita. She’s bred to get the trip and figures to be on or near the lead throughout.  #5 Sarno’s B F F, a so-so fourth in her debut for O’Neill, is another that can be expected to produce a forward move and she did flash enough early speed sprinting to expect that she’ll be a pace factor stretching out against this group.  We’ve rated this race a “C” so tread lightly.

SECOND RACE (11:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Sugar Buzz; 4-Meshegas

#3 Sugar Buzz is solid in the speed figure department and seems likely to run his race, which might be good enough against this starter optional claiming band of juveniles over a mile on the main track.  The son of Include should draft into an ideal pace-stalking spot and have every chance with his one-paced style.  #4 Mishegas, third in the same race that Sugar Buzz just finished second in, is another son of Include that just grinds it out and looks to be the one to fear most.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but this is another uninspiring race that should be treated cautiously.

THIRD RACE (12:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Gift of a Star; 6-Untouchable U; 12-Margaret Reay

The Pick-6 begins with a grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares.  We’ll try to get by using just three.  #6 Untouchable U has improving numbers for Truman and certainly is bred to run long on the lawn, being by Red Giant from a mare by Point Giver.  Her two sprints were pretty good so we should see her best stuff today. #2 Gift of a Star may have a bit more room to improve than the others; the McAnally-trained five-year-old finished willingly to be second in a similar event earlier this month and if she can produce another forward move today she’ll be right there.  #12 Margaret Reay is stuck way outside and already has had eight chances, so she may be a hard one to trust.  However, the Proctor-trained filly exits a hot race and ran very well over this course in a runner-up try vs. straight maidens during the summer meeting, so we’ll toss her in as well.

FOURTH RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Smooth Talker; 3-Seek Safe Harbor

This looks like a treacherous affair for modest claiming fillies and mares; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  #2 Smooth Talker exits a much tougher starter’s allowance race and returns to her winning level; the O’Neill-trained mare has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and a repeat of her race before last probably will be good enough.  She’s also reunited with Van Dyke, who seems to get the most run out of her.  #3 Seek Safe Harbor is worth tossing in at a price despite her low percentage connections; she was a winner vs. similar two runs back at Santa Anita and also won a race over this main track during the summer season.  First or second in seven of 16 career starts, she’s probably a bit better than her 10-1 morning line. 

FIFTH RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Tiz a Classy Lass; 3-Stole a Kiss; 6-Diamond Cut

This highly-competitive state-bred first-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares is yet another race that may require a bit of a spread.  #2 Tiz a Classy Lass was visually quite impressive winning a starter’s allowance event over this course and distance earlier this month and if she can repeat that effort today she’ll be hard to beat.  She did get pace to run at in that race but winning from the 10-hole is never an easy task and she’s drawn much better today, so we’re expecting another huge run.  #3 Stole a Kiss finished a close fifth without the clearest of runs against a similar group last month and today gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Lopez.  The Puype-trained filly should be heard from late.  #6 Diamond Cut has been away since July but she’s trained like she’s fit and ready for Sadler and retains Espinoza, who won on her two races back.  The daughter of Unusual Heat is a fit on numbers and as a 3-year-old may have a bit higher ceiling than some of the others.

SIXTH RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Patriotic Diamond

#9 Patriotic Diamond is listed at 7/5 on the morning line and most likely will be the shortest price in the pick-6 sequence.  Drawn comfortably outside after a better-than-looked third place performance in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies last month, the daughter of Hat Trick adds blinkers today, retains Bejarano, and beats these with a repeat of her smart victory in the Generous Portion two races back.  Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-The Pizza Man; 9-Texas Ryano; 14-Big John B

#6 The Pizza Man finished third in this race last year, hitting the front in mid-stretch but then getting worn down close home; today Smith takes over and will give this son of English Channel the patient ride he needs.  The veteran gelding’s fifth place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Turf wasn’t too bad over a course that was much softer than its listed “good” designation.  He can bounce back today.  #14 Big John B floundered in the going and was never a factor in the B.C. Turf; he’s a perfect three-for-three over the Del Mar lawn so we’re expecting to see a return to top form by the D’Amato-trained gelding.  The 14-hole doesn’t do him any favors with that relatively quick run into the far turn, so Bejarano probably will just yank him back and then try to save as much ground as he can early on.  #9 Texas Ryano found a mile much too sharp and was a non-threatening fifth in a hot allowance race here last month but this is a much better distance for the Gaines-trained son of Curlin and at 10-1 on the morning line he can at least hit the board.

EIGHTH RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-And Then Some; 7-Discreetlyhumorme; 11-Nusret; 12-Deputy Dane

This maiden claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles has several possibilities and necessitates a spread strategy; we’ll use four but feel free to go deeper if you can afford to.  #5 And Then Some shows up for a tag for the first time, returns to dirt, shortens to a sprint, switches to Talamo, and puts blinkers on.  He earned a number two races back that puts him right there, so we’ll give him top billing in a largely unclassified field.  #7 Discreetlyhumorme flashed pretty good early speed before being knocked off stride and falling after the opening quarter of a mile in his debut vs. straight maidens at Los Alamitos in September.  He returns in a realistic spot for Glatt and Baze, and the recent works look fairly promising.  You have to use him at 12-1 on the morning line.  #11 Nusret has the blinkers off angle we like so much and may be a bit better than shown.  He’s not fast on numbers but does have some early zip and could stick around for a while.  #12 Deputy Dane represents stranger danger from San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato; the work tab looks reasonable so he’s worth including somewhere.