NOVEMBER 1, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: C

Pass – No Play

The opener finds undefeated (in two starts) #7 Wild Street Party dropping to the bottom while obviously being thrown away by Miyadi, so she may or may not have one good one left.  Fast enough on numbers and drawn comfortably outside, she’s the one to beat but certainly not one to trust.  Small ticket rolling exotic plays may choose to single her while big ticket players will try to beat her and perhaps even buy the race.  We choose to sit it out.

SECOND RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 2-Iron Fist

#2 Iron Fist is listed at 4/5 on the morning line and looks it on form.  A strong runner-up to Frosted in the Pennsylvania Derby in September, he’s trained very well in the interim and returns for easy pickings in a second level allowance main track miler while adding blinkers for the first time.  Smith will have him on or near the lead throughout as a no value rolling exotic single.

THIRD RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-At Ease

#1 At Ease really ran well two races back over this turf course when third against a stronger straight maiden field than he’s facing today and we’ll draw a line through his disappointing off-the-turf effort at Santa Anita last month.  He continues to work well for Black and should bounce back to his best today, but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not a whole lot we can do with him.  #3 Heat would seem to be the main threat after running on nicely to be third after being pushed out wide crossing the dirt at Santa Anita in his most recent start.  However, the evidence is mounting that the son of Unusual Heat is considerably more effective sprinting than routing.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Coppa; 7-All in the Proof

#1 Coppa breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat, the fastest move for the distance, at the OBS April Sale, and then brought $210,000 at auction.  She’s a half-sister to Tropic Storm, a multi-stakes winner around these parts a number of years ago and a Santa Anita track record holder for six and one-half furlongs.  She’s done everything right for D’Amato leading up to her debut and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she’ll be hard to beat.  At 5/2 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’ll be the main push here, but we’ll also have a ticket or two using #7 All in the Proof.  The daughter of Include breezed furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at that same OBS Sale and then was sold for $100,000; she’s a daughter of Include and therefore bred to be more of a distance type but she, too, has shown ability in a series of local drills for Hollendorfer and lands the outside post and Bejarano.

FIFTH RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-Second Proposal; 5-Chips All In; 6-Mr. Sexy

This competitive abbreviated turf sprint has plenty of contention and requires a spread.  #6 Mr. Sexy ran the best race of his career over this course and distance a ways back and might be rounding back to that kind of form following a speed/late fade effort down the hill against a similar field last month.  He switches to Garcia and is worth a close look at 6-1 on the morning line, the low percentage barn notwithstanding.  #3 Second Proposal can be effective as a late-running sprinter in this type of shortened sprint and may be the one to contain late.  First or second in half of his 16 career starts, the Kruljac-trained gelding retains Nakatani and is being raised two levels in class in a sign of confidence.  #5 Chips All In is winless in six starts over the Del Mar lawn but has hit the board five times and could easily land in the frame again today.  He was used hard on a hot pace down the hill last time out in the much tougher Eddie D Stakes and faltered when it mattered; we’d like to see a bit of patience employed today by Quinonez.  Let’s try Mr. Sexy on top due to price considerations but use all three in rolling exotic play.

SIXTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Anda; 7-Pippappy

#7 Pippappy has been claimed in his last three starts and today races as a gelding for the first time for new trainer Mulhall. Back sprinting after flopping as the favorite over a mile in early September, the Majestic Warrior gelding has a huge look here based on his sharp runner-up try two runs back.  He continues to look decent in the morning - for a bottom-rung maiden claimer, that is - and will be doing his best work from just off the pace.  #4 Anda represents stranger danger.  A first-time starter with a series of good works for Puype, he shows up at the bottom but as a 4-year-old with plenty of back issues this seems like a logical spot.  The barn is okay with first timers and the field doesn’t have a whole lot of zip in it.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (3:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Uzziel; 6-Elektrum

#6 Elektrum won the Mabee S.-G2 over this turf course during the summer season and looks to out class this field.  Most recently she made up a ton of ground to be second in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 at Santa Anita and then bypassed a chance to run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf-G1 yesterday for this considerably easier spot.  The turn back to a mile shouldn’t be much of an issue, at least against this group.  #4 Uzziel appears much better sprinting than routing, however, she’s never been better for Desormeaux and could get loose and never look back if not pressured early.  At 8-1 on the morning line she simply has to be included somewhere. 

EIGHTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Toomanytomatoes; 6-Hide My Heart; 8-Ipray

The finale is an extended sprint for $20,000 claiming fillies and mares and looks fairly wide open.  #6 Hide My Heart just won at this level and should be tough right back, though Sherman isn’t protecting her and clearly doesn’t care about possibly losing her.  She was an impressive winner over this track in July and has the proper style for seven furlongs.  #4 Toomanytomatoes moves up two levels in class for new trainer Kitchingman; she was beaten as the favorite last time out at Santa Anita but likes this track and may be tough if she’s held up early and allowed to produce one late run.  #8 Ipray, first off the claim for Palma, is a route-to-sprint play from a cozy outside post and retains Bejarano; the lightly-raced 3-year-old filly is another that could be dangerous from off the pace.