NOVEMBER 14, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Unusual Taste; 8-Mal Verde

#8 Mal Verde moves up a notch following a $32,000 claim and a repeat of his last race – a strong runner-up effort in a fast, highly-rated affair - might be good enough to beat this slightly tougher field.  He’s reunited with Baze, who has won on him in the past, and if the Wright-trained gelding can negotiate a decent trip from his outside draw he could produce a winning late bid.  #3 Unusual Taste has two prior wins over the Del Mar lawn and is dropping for the money run.  The Mathis-trained gelding packs a dangerous late kick and with good racing luck should be heard from in the final furlong.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – a very slight edge goes to Mal Verde on top – but it’s a contentious race and you may find the need to go a bit deeper.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Parasail; 3-Big Move; 6-Rockin Dorita

#3 Big Move returns to a sprint and should return to winning form.  The Yakteen-trained filly produced a bullet 58 3/5 seconds workout just six days ago at Santa Anita and should be just as effective on dirt as she has been on turf.  Bejarano stays aboard and will have her on or near the lead throughout. #1 Parasail is improving with racing and showed some grit when breaking her maiden in just her second career start last month in Arcadia.  With another step forward today she should make her presence felt, rail and all.  #6 Rockin Dorita is drawn comfortably outside and has an improving pattern, though she’s a tad slower on speed figures than her other two main rivals.  A maiden breaker over this track during the summer season, the daughter of Rockport Harbor retains Nakatani and figures to draft into an ideal pace-stalking spot.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Big Move on top.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Kiss My Face; 5-Take It Easyplease

#5 Take It Easyplease actually won a maiden-claiming race over this track during the summer meeting but was disqualified and placed fourth, so she’s still eligible to this modest event and seems the best of a weak lot.  She has the proper style for this extended sprint trip, switches to Gonzalez, and looks capable of wearing down the speed in the final stages.  #4 Kiss My Face is also worth using in rolling exotic play; the Powell-trained filly has plenty of zip and will take her rivals as far as she can on the front end.  She’s a fit on numbers, retains Desormeaux and really won’t have to improve all that much to win. 

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Radiant Journey; 7-Codacious; 8-Lily Pod

#8 Lily Pod earned a giant figure when easily handling maidens last month at Santa Anita in her fourth career start and if she comes close to repeating that type of effort today she should be home free.  The daughter of Bernstein is bred to love turf and can pop and go or stalk and pounce from her outside post, depending upon how the race shapes up for Bejarano.  She’s 5/2 on the morning line and there’s plenty of value at that price if you can get it.  #7 Codacious may be the most dangerous of the closers.  A winner and a runner-up in two prior starts over this course and distance during the summer meeting, the Sise-trained filly will need some racing luck in the lane but if room develops she’ll be rolling late under Smith.  #2 Radiant Journey ran quite well when second at this level in her only prior start on grass and she gets a break in the weights today with the switch to good bug boy Lopez.  She probably prefers patient handling.  All three should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets on top keying Lily Pod.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Devil Rising; 4-Gold Chaser

This is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint with little in it to trust; we’ll double the race but not with a great deal of confidence.  #3 Devil Rising may be as good as any and at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll put him on top.  He’s a first-off-the-claim for Miller (very strong stats with this angle), gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lopez, and is a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar main track.  He’s more than fast enough on speed figures to beat this type of field; however, there’s a condition question as he just finished a well-beaten sixth at even money against essentially the same type of foes.  Let’s hope he can bounce back.  #4 Gold Chaser has hit the board in three of five prior starts at Del Mar and has speed figures that fit; however, he’s a late-running sprinter that needs help up front and good racing luck and he doesn’t often get either.  He has low percentage connections as well, but he’s a contender by default and is worth tossing in. 

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Ya Ya Girl; 4-Arewehavingfunyet; 7-Entebbe

There’s little to choose between #2 Ya Ya Girl and #4 Arewehavingfunyet; they finished a half-length apart in a similar high-priced maiden claiming turf router last month at Santa Anita and meet again today with both appearing to be major contenders.  ‘Girl has a nice inside draw and good tactical speed, and with Bejarano staying aboard probably deserves a very slight edge on top.  However, the Baltas-trained Arewehavingfunyet has started only four times (to Ya Ya Girl’s eight outings) so she probably has a bit more upside.  We’ll also toss in #8 Entebbe, who’ll be adding blinkers for the first time.  Her one prior outing on turf (a sprint) wasn’t bad and she’s making the always important drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming.  Talamo stays aboard and knows her well.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Grazen Sky; 7-Brimstoned

#7 Brimstoned is unbeaten in three starts since being gelded and based on his recent speed figures the son of Unusual Heat appears capable of extending his winning streak to four.  Quick enough to make the lead but versatile enough to settle into a stalking position if the situation dictates, the Bell-trained four-year-old retains Blanc and likely will sit off the speed and then produce his run when it counts.  However, if the pace comes up pretty hot – and it might – then late-running #6 Grazen Sky could be very dangerous as well.  Freshened since August and retaining Bejarano, the Miyadi-trained colt is a state-bred stakes winner and plenty fast enough on numbers to be a threat at this level.  A recent strong seven furlong workout in 1:25 4/5 seconds should have him fit and ready.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Toews On Ice

#4 Toews On Ice has really gotten good for Baffert, having won the Barretts Juvenile at Los Alamitos in September and then Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita last month, both races with legitimate speed figures.  He’s plenty quick but can give you a second move into the lane, so this seven furlong trip should be perfect for his style.  In a field without a whole lot of early zip, the son of Archarcharch can control the race from start to finish as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

NINTH RACE (4:29 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 7-Drefong; 13-Basinca

The nightcap is a fairly decent straight maiden juvenile sprint; we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while preferring #13 Basinca on top.  The son of Proud Citizen finished an excellent second with a strong speed figure in his debut last month at Santa Anita and any kind of forward mover today will make him hard to beat.  O'Neill has strong stats with second-time starting maidens and Gutierrez stays aboard.  #7 Defrong, another second-time starter with a right to improve, faded to finish off the board when favored in his debut last month but seems better than that and deserves another look.  The Baffert-trained colt retains Garcia and second-timers from this stable hit at a very respectable 21%.