NOVEMBER 20, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Semper Fortis; 6-Weirdhaircut Seth

#2 Semper Fortis drops into a high-priced claimer for the first time and catches what appears to be a below par field for the level.  He performed well over this track when second vs. maiden special weight company during the summer meeting and if he runs back to that race today he’ll be tough to beat.  #6 Weirdhaircut Seth, a debuting son of Forestry, has worked well enough for a trainer that excels with first-time starters.  Go-to rider Desormeaux takes the call, so let’s assume this colt is reasonably well-meant.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Semper Fortis on top.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 2-Jusatonemorething; 4-Classic Gent

#2 Justoneomorething is working on a two-race winning streak but hasn’t been out since late September and is actually dropping a notch, not exactly a healthy sign for Kruljac.  He’s also a late-running sprinter that could use some help up front and he’ll need some racing luck along the way, however, he’s a genuine and willing sort and must be used.  #4 Classic Gent is re-equipped with blinkers after missing as the choice in a similar spot at Santa Anita last month.  He’s another that has to come from far back but his best puts him right there so he deserves some consideration.  These are the two we’ll prefer in rolling exotic play but with a low degree of confidence (hence, the “C” grade) and if you can afford to spread the race, do so.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Red Button; 4-John’s Success; 5-Lovenseek

#5 Lovenseek just beat slightly stronger field over this course and distance last month and seems well-spotted for another top effort.  Clearly Miller is dangling this gelding – he doesn’t seem to feel he’s good enough to beat a first-level allowance field and probably won’t mind if he loses him - but if the son of Unbridled’s Song has at least one good one left he’ll be tough to beat.  #2 Red Button was in a bit too steep vs. nw-2 types here two weeks ago but should go much better against this lesser bunch.  He won a nice starter’s allowance race at Santa Anita two races back and earned a number that makes him a major player today.  #4 John’s Success is making his third start off a long layoff and it should be his best in his current form cycle.  Beaten as the choice behind Lovenseek last time out, the O’Neill-trained 3-year-old retains Nakatani and figures to get the patient ride he requires for his best effort.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-A Colt Following; 4-Tiz Jolie

#3 A Colt Following looked good beating a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming field last month at Santa Anita and is double-jumped in class by new trainer Spawr in a sign of confidence.  Perez stays aboard and should have this Montbrook gelding in a good stalking spot throughout.  #4 Tiz Jolie, second in his last pair, gives Spawr a second bullet to fire and retains Bejarano while adding blinkers.  The concern is his reputation of preferring to run second or third rather than win.  We’ll use both of the Spawr entrants in our rolling exotics while preferring A Colt Following on top.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Fishel

#6 Fishel is rapidly improving with racing and looks set to produce another forward move.  A sharp maiden-special-weight winner over this course and distance during the summer season, the Gaines-trained colt is eligible for this starter’s allowance race for having run for $40,000 in his second career start and should take full advantage of the situation.  With Bejarano riding him back, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Frac Candy; 5-Freedom Hill

#5 Freedom Hill was out of his element when overmatched in the Zuma Beach Stakes routing on turf at Santa Anita last month but he returns to sprinting on dirt today and a repeat of his nice maiden score over this main track in August makes him a major player in this starter optional claimer for juveniles.  He gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Lopez and sports a healthy work tab since raced for Glatt.  #1 Frac Candy crushed a soft maiden claiming field last month in Arcadia, earned a career top speed figure, and may prove to be a good claim by Miller.  We’re not crazy about the rail post but if he can negotiate a decent trip the son of Twirling Candy will be heard from late.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Freedom Hill on top.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-Sharaun; 6-Lucky Student; 9-No Comparison

#9 No Comparison flopped at 3/5 in a similar abbreviated sprint over this turf course last month but we’re willing to give her another chance.  Drawn outside today, the daughter of Vronsky should draft into an ideal pace-stalking, in-the-clear trip and have every chance to reproduce her best effort.  #5 Sharaun won at first asking up north in clever fashion and earned a competitive speed figure; she’ll be rolling late under Lopez and with good racing luck could be quite dangerous in the final furlong.  #6 Lucky Student, first off the claim for Spawr, switches to Pedroza and will be part of the pace throughout.  She’s winless in seven starts on grass but actually ran okay when third over this course and distance last year, and she might very well be a better type now.  On pure speed figures she’s right there with these.  Preference on top goes to No Comparison but we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 2-Hurricaine Callie; 6-Casino Fever

#6 Casino Fever has trained like a bullet for Baffert – that 33 1/5 gate drill kinda stands out – and the daughter of Stormin Fever looks cranked up and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box in this maiden special weight sprint for juvenile state-bred fillies.  She’ll get plenty of play and deservedly so.  #2 Hurricaine Callie is the best of the known element; she probably can’t beat a real good maiden but has hit the board in five of six starts and should at least land in the frame again today.  Strong preference on top goes to Casino Fever.