NOVEMBER 19, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Kellianne Can Can; 5-Red Stich

#5 Red Stich was overmatched in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes last month but isn’t today as she drops into a starter’s allowance event, stretches out, and returns to turf.  Perez stays aboard, knows her well, and should have this daughter of Decarchy within striking range throughout.  A pair of races over this turf course during the summer meeting weren’t too bad considering the strength of the opposition.  #4 Kellianne Can Can is improving with racing and broke her maiden over seven furlongs in game style last month at Santa Anita.  The daughter of Colonel John shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the switch to turf and if her improving pattern continues she can act at this level.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Red Stich a very slight edge on top.

SECOND RACE (12:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Dream Team; 6-Action Hero

#4 Dream Team has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and should be a short price to earn his diploma after missing by a neck at odds-on in a hot sprint at Los Alamitos in September.  The son of Tapit – a $1 million yearling purchase – should move forwardly considerably over a route of ground and remains highly regarded.  He shouldn’t make any mistakes today.  #6 Action Hero deserves small consideration as a saver.  The son of Street Cry earned a career top speed figure when missing by a neck in a similar spot over a seven furlongs in September and if he can duplicate that kind of effort today he could give ‘Team a bit of a run.

THIRD RACE (1:29 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Missy Mouse; 3-Lost Bus; 8-Sister of Mercy

The Pick-6 begins with a mid-grade claiming turf router restricted to 3-year-old fillies and probably requires a spread.  We’ll use three but without any real degree of confidence.  #1 Missy Mouse shows up for a tag for the first time and may have found her friends; the daughter of McCann’s Mojave earned a decent number two-turning on grass in here race-before-last that makes her a contender in this league.  She also gets the rail and Bejarano and seems as good as any.  #3 Lost Bus is another first-time-for-a-tag play, switches to Talamo, and is likely to try gate-to-wire tactics.  If she can shake loose without being sent hard, she could get brave.  #8 Sister of Mercy still is trying to find her level but she can a finish a bit and if the pace comes up faster than par she might be heard from late.  She earned a speed figure over this course and distance during the summer meeting that puts here in the hunt.  We’ve rated this race a “C” for obvious reasons.

FOURTH RACE (1:59 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Thunder Basin; 4-Proud Captive; 7-Derby Glass

This is another difficult affair; we’ll use three but if you can afford to go deeper go right ahead.  #2 Thunder Basin is an intriguing Florida shipper in the Mulhall barn; she’ll likely show plenty of speed under Pedroza and has numbers that make her a strong threat in this modest $25,000 restricted claimer.  #4 Proud Captive won over this main track during the summer meeting and did so with a speed figures that makes her dangerous.  Look for this daughter of Proud Citizen to make some noise in the final furlong.  #7 Derby Glass has been facing much tougher starter’s allowance foes lately and should greatly appreciate this drop in class.  The number she earned when second in a photo two runs back would be more than good enough to win, and Bejarano stays aboard for O’Neill.  Let’s try Thunder Basin as our top selection but not with a great deal of confidence.

FIFTH RACE (2:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Architop; 6-Blue Law

Maiden claiming juveniles meet over a mile on turf; it’s an anything-goes type of race, so use as many as you can afford to.  #5 Architop hated the dirt when far back as the favorite in a recent maiden claimer but removes blinkers, returns to grass, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Kennedy, and can a beat a field like this with a repeat of his good third place effort two runs back.  The Mandella-trained gelding has been a money burner but against this group you have to use him.  #6 Blue Law drops into a seller for the first time so he has a license to wake up, and the switch to Bejarano seems significant.  He’s another with back numbers that are good enough to win. 

SIXTH RACE (2:59 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 2-Pageant Material

#2 Pageant Material is improving with racing and appears to ready to graduate.  A good closing runner-up to the promising Bellamentary at Santa Anita last month, she lands a much more favorable post position today and figures to produce another significant forward move for Baltas.  The daughter of Bernardini seems highly logical as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

SEVENTH RACE (3:29 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Signature Cat; 2-Burnaroundtheedges; 3-Global Magician

This five furlong turf sprint has many contenders; we’ll prefer those drawn inside while going three-deep in our rolling exotics.  #3 Global Magician seems to prefer to run second or third rather than win, but he’s usually in the fray and ran well over this course and distance when second in a similar state-bred first-level allowance dash during the summer meeting.  Espinoza should have him within striking range throughout.  #1 Signature Cat may prefer dirt to turf but he has plenty of zip, is drawn inside, and figures to be sent hard from the rail.  #2 Burnaroundtheedges won his only start way back in April of 2014 before disappearing; he returns for Black with a nice series of drills and is bred to love grass (Vronsky).  Five furlongs might be a tad sharp form him and it’s entirely possible he’s merely prepping for a longer, but he showed a bit of quality in his debut win and returns protected, so he’s intriguing.

EIGHTH RACE (3:59 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 6-Octofy; 7-Some Caan Job; 8-Be a Lady

#8 Octofy shows up in a claimer for the first time after being out of her element in state-bred stakes company last month.  She’s reunited with Gutierrez, who won on her two races back, and the O’Neill-trained daughter of Square Eddie seems as good as any off her best effort.  #7 Some Cann Job, an uncoupled Reddam-owned stablemate of Octofy, looked good graduating over this track in August but has a shaky work pattern since so her condition is a question.  Gutierrez could have ridden either one (or Be a Lady, for that matter), but opts for Octofy, for whatever that’s worth.  #8 Be a Lady crushed maiden claimers at Santa Anita by almost 10 lengths last time out but didn’t earn much of a speed figure and returns unprotected by Eurton.  She’ll get a good stalking trip outside under Bejarano and won’t have to improve much to win right back.