NOVEMBER 6, 2015 – DEL MAR

JEFF SIEGEL’S ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

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USER GUIDELINES

Jeff Siegel’s Del Mar analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass

Top selection indicated in bold-face

FIRST RACE (12:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 3-Riri; 4-Optimism And Hope

The Friday opener is a pretty decent entry-level allowance turf miler for juvenile fillies with trainer Phil D’Amato saddling the two main contenders.  #4 Optimism And Hope has been pitched pretty high since her importation from Europe; the Irish-bred split the field in her U.S. debut in the Juvenile Turf Stakes over this course and distance in September and then ran better than the line will show when a closing fourth after a slow start and a wide trip in the productive Surfer Girl Stakes last month at Santa Anita.  This is a considerably easier spot and the daughter of Holy Roman Emperor should make the most of the opportunity.  #3 Riri won her debut in sharp style down the hill at Santa Anita and today will try to carry her speed two-turns while moving up in class.  She’s a fit on numbers and with A. P. Indy on the bottom side of her pedigree she should be able to handle the extra ground.  We’ll give ‘Hope the edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

SECOND RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Really a Princess; 7-Zuzu’s Petals; 8-Tatum’s Gold

The second race is a spread affair for restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares; we’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough.  #7 Zuzu’s Petals returns to the main track and drops to her lowest level ever; she continues to look solid in the morning for Koriner and figures to draft into a good, second flight, stalking spot.  #5 Really a Princess moves up a level for Bonde after missing by a head last month at Santa Anita.  The race was low-rated but she’ll be on or near the lead throughout and may bet set for a forward move.  #8 Tatum’s Gold lands the cozy outside post and is a class dropper with the route-to-sprint angle for Miyadi.  She has back numbers that are more than good enough to win at this level and she’s a perfect one-for-one at this extended sprint trip.  We’ll put Zuzu’s Petals slightly on top but the best advice is to include as many as you can afford to.

THIRD RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-A New Trend; 7-Aren Vaughn

#7 Aren Vaughn finally makes it to the races late in his 3-year-old season so he’s obviously had problems, but he shows up for a high-priced tag following a string of sharp workouts for Baltas and looks primed to win at first asking with Bejarano taking the mount.  However, at 9/5 on the morning line, he’ll probably not offer a great deal of value.  #3 A New Trend has good speed and with the drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming figures to stick much better today.  The Black-trained gelding switches to Desormeaux and may get brave if he can shake loose early.  We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets using Aren Vaughn.

FOURTH RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 6-Avanti Bello

#6 Avanti Bello is a lightly-raced and improving son of Include and a repeat of either one of his last two races should be more than good enough to beat this field.  Baze stays aboard for O’Neill; we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single and straight play and hope to get close to his morning line of 2-1.  In a race without a whole lot of speed in it, he should be within striking range outside, ready to pounce.

FIFTH RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Blondy’s Reward; 10-Tiz a Classy Lass; 9-Hankypank Girl; 11-Housemaker

This starter’s allowance grass grab bag for fillies and mares could be a “buy race” for big ticket rolling exotic players; we’re using four but not with any great degree of confidence.  #9 Hankypank Girl has a legitimate long shot look at 15-1 on the morning line; the Drysdale-trained filly has the always-dangerous blinkers off angle going for and her late-running style should be more effective on the Del Mar turf course than it was over the speed-favoring  Golden Gate Fields layout.  Look for this daughter of Henrythenavigator to be heard from in the final furlong.  #10 Tiz a Classy Lass returns to grass and should return to good form for Jones.  She’s a fit on numbers and has looked pretty sharp in recent drills for her first start since mid-September.  #11 Housemaker has run well over this course in the past and should be included despite her poor outside draw.  She’s a deep closer switching to Talamo and really won’t have to improve much to win.  #3 Blondy’s Reward makes a major switch to Bejarano, lands a comfortable inside post and off her best race can at least get a piece of it.

SIXTH RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 4-Lucky Reality; 7-Kronwall

#4 Lucky Reality, first off the claim for Miyadi (excellent stats with this angle) has figures that can win this bottom-rung abbreviated sprint and gets a break in the weights while switching to good bug boy Lopez.  We’re expecting this Lucky J. H. gelding to be on or near the lead throughout.  #7 Kronwall gets off the rail, should be prominent throughout and with just two lifetime outings certainly has a right to show improvement.  A recent 58 seconds flat workout at Los Alamitos is noteworthy.  Lucky Reality gets top billing but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

SEVENTH RACE (3:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Chiropractor; 4-Poshky; 10-Horizonatalyspeakin

This is a difficult, contentious optional claiming turf event that on paper appears much stronger than par for the level.  #1 Chiropractor ran the two best races of his career over this turf course during the summer season but was slightly disappointing when he could do no better than fifth in a similar spot at Santa Anita last month.  We’re going to give him a chance to rebound over the local lawn from a good inside post for the always-potent Proctor/Van Dyke team while recognizing that he’ll probably have to produce a career top effort to win.  #10 Horizontalyspeakin is stuck way outside for his first start since being claimed by Baltas, however, the veteran gelding has won half of his four career outings over the Del Mar turf course.  He continues to look good in the morning, switches to Bejarano, and should fire his best shot.  #4 Poshky was overmatched in graded stakes company at Santa Anita last month but certainly isn’t today and ran two excellent races over this turf course during the summer meeting.  Graham stays aboard and knows him well.  Chiropractor gets preference in the straight pool but all three are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.

EIGHTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Makena

#3 Makena displayed promise in her debut last January when she finished a solid third in a good downhill turf sprint, but then disappeared.  She returns for Hansen with a sharp series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and looks fit and ready for a big effort off the bench.  The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile remains well regarded by her connections and looks tough to beat in this moderate straight maiden main track extended sprint.  She would offer extreme value at or near her 6-1 morning line, but we’re not expecting to get anywhere near that much.